College Football Picks: UNLV vs Memphis Best Bets
Week 0 caps off with what could be a highly entertaining game with early postseason implications, as the winner will earn a strong resume builder for G6 playoff consideration. Memphis has a new coaching staff and a plethora of players who followed that staff from Marshall to Southern Miss to their current jersey. Dan Mullen, meanwhile, brings in SEC QB Jackson Arnold with the hopes a step down in defensive talent allows him to flirt with former five-star form.
Kick off the 2026 college football season with Polymarket promo code ROTOWIRE to get a $20 trading bonus if you deposit $10! RotoWire has plenty of college football betting tools and info to keep you in the loop this season. From the latest college football odds to college football futures, Heisman odds, and the latest college football player news, we have you covered.
UNLV vs Memphis Betting Odds for Week 0
Spread: UNLV -4 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Memphis +4.5 (BetMGM)
Total: Over 55.5 (BetMGM); Under 55.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: UNLV -180 (Fanatics Sportsbook), Memphis +165 (BetMGM)
It's a Vegas team playing in Vegas; keep your head on a swivel here. The spread has ticked down from an opening (-5.5), and any noteworthy further movement needs to be considered. I'm not one to really consider "sharp" money, but the setup for this one is different.
The total has ticked down a point since opening. That's a spot I really want to monitor prior to kickoff. Overs on games with teams that are very much in transition and playing their first game usually struggle with continuity. I'm not initially convinced that'll be the case here.
UNLV vs Memphis Betting Picks for Week 0
There's just so much unknown for both teams to feel confident with a play. The Rebels, while starting Arnold, have noted Michigan transfer Alex Orji will also play, offering a rushing option under center/in the gun, but also potentially furthering a lack of offensive continuity. Neither side has offered a formal depth chart, and Memphis too could play two quarterbacks between likely starter Marcus Stokes, a DII transfer who was formerly committed to Florida, and Ohio State/South Carolina transfer Air Noland.
The one and only thing that appears safe to back is UNLV RB Jai'Den Thomas, who ran for 1,036 yards (7.0 ypc) and 12 touchdowns last year. Memphis HC Charles Huff's Southern Miss squad last year allowed 31 rushing scores and 174.9 yards on the ground. As a jaded Miami Hurricanes fan, I don't trust DC Lance Guidry to scheme enough change there in a first game with new personnel.
There are a lot of options to consider with wagering here. I personally want to tread lightly, and prefer a single-game parlay with some moving lines. Moving the over down to somewhere around 50, paired with either Memphis +10.5, or UNLV +3.5 is where I land. That's amplified if we see spread movement closer to kickoff, as I'm very nervous about backing the home side in Sin City. With minimal confidence, UNLV wins, but the Tigers keep it close
UNLV vs Memphis Expert Pick: Memphis +4.5 (BetMGM)
Get in on the 2026 college football season with Kalshi promo code ROTOWIRE to get $25 after you trade $25!
UNLV vs Memphis Predictions for Week 0
A first-half under might be worth considering, as I expect both sides to feel each other out, run the ball often, and play conservatively. But I also expect some second-half fireworks. Stokes will find his groove as he acclimates to better competition and create a back-and-forth, high-scoring game. Trusting Arnold to lead game-winning drives is difficult, but with Thomas finding success, he'll be able to complete enough throws against single coverage to get the Rebels into the win column.
Prediction: UNLV 30-27
UNLV vs Memphis Player Props for Saturday, August 29
Jai'Den Thomas, UNLV RB
Over 73.5 rushing yards (Underdog)
Over 0.5 rushing touchdowns
The rushing prop is three yards higher at PrizePicks, and while I don't think that will matter, you obviously take the lowest number available. It's a touch risky given that Thomas went over this number just five times last season, and his slight frame doesn't allow him to be a workhorse; he only topped 15 carries once last season. But if he returns to 7.0 ypc form, he needs 11 totes to top this. One big run is all we're seeking. The touchdown prop feels far safer as he's the lone constant available.
Marcus Stokes, Memphis QB
Over 203.5 passing yards
The number just seems too low. Memphis could use as many as three running backs, and there is the risk Stokes struggles and gives opportunities to Noland. He went over this number 10 times last year. I'm well aware of the step up in competition, but if we buy the narrative of a high-scoring, back-and-forth game, Stokes will have to throw often in the second half.
Quarterback rushing props are currently scarce outside of Stokes, who is a willing runner, but I'd be interested in either UNLV signal caller if something pops up in the 10-15 yard range.
