College Capper: Free College Football Picks This Week
Chris' Picks
By the skin of my teeth, I posted another winning season last year. We know there are going to be hot and cold weeks, but we'll keep grinding to make that happen again this season.
Week 1 used to be my favorite week for CFB betting as we could try to find some edges on the books before they adjust. Perhaps I'm overthinking this week, but we've got only a handful of single-digit spreads, and a ton of 30+ point lines I can't honestly suggest you back with your money. I will say these massive spreads come with totals that are darn close to said spread; if you believe the underdog can score, that game is going over, while the inverse also applies. I also think it's going to be hotter than an oven in the South, and we could see heavy run game attacks to bleed the clock, making unders attractive. As far as traps go, Georgia Tech looks too obvious Thursday night, so I'll avoid. Final thought...perhaps go lightly in Week 1, more half-unit plays while enjoying college football being back, watch and learn for future weeks. Don't blow your bankroll out of the gate.
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Houston (-20.5) vs. Oregon State
Houston has continuity; at least in terms of quarterback Conner Weigman and its coaching staff. Oregon State counters with a new staff, and the choice to replace Maalik Murphy under center with Mercer transfer Braden Atkinson. Yeah, that doesn't sound like a level playing field. The reunion between HC Willie Fritz and RB Makhi Hughes should further bolster the Cougars' attack. Oregon State can't match the offensive firepower.
West Virginia (-21) vs. Coastal Carolina
There are some (-21.5)s out there, so make sure you don't go above this three-touchdown number. Coastal ranked 129th against the run last year, and new head coach Ryan Beard comes over from Missouri State, where his defense ranked 78th while obviously playing a low-level schedule. We know Rich Rodriguez's scheme is going to allow for big run gains, and if QB Michael Hawkins finds any rhythm with his arm, they could score 50. Coastal will throw and attack, so perhaps the over is a consideration, or a parlay/teaser with moving WVU down to -14/-17, and the total to around 50 for desired odds. But as is, I will back the Mountaineers to stretch this out.
Cincinnati (-7.5) vs. Boston College
Absolutely line shop here, as there seems to be a 7-8.5 range, and feel free to find some boosts or just take less odds if the hook makes you uncomfortable. The Eagles were 85th in scoring, 127th in rushing last season (somehow 15th in passing). How do we expect that to improve when they're relying on Liberty transfer Evan Dickens at RB and Saginaw Valley State QB Mason McKenzie coming in? McKenzie can run, so that should bolster the overall rushing numbers. But we saw how TCU's Jaden Craig struggled with the speed of FBS football last week. Expect growing pains. Sure, the Bearcats have plenty of new pieces, but at least they've played at the highest level.
Clemson (+10.5) at LSU
Does this scare the heck out of me? Heck yes! Death Valley, at night, with a raw QB could spell disaster. But working in Christopher Vizzina's favor are reliable WRs Bryant Wesco and T.J. Moore. But ultimately, there's just too much noise around LSU for me to back double-digits. Who knows who's going to suit up for them at this point. We don't know how healthy Sam Leavitt is, nor his rapport with new receivers, and there are major questions about LSU's ability to run the ball. If we can get some disruption from Will Heldt and Clemson doesn't fall behind massively early, they'll start believing while LSU presses.
Western Kentucky (ML) at Nevada
A straight winner here as the line seems all over the place; depending on your book, you might be able to get either side at (+1.5). A ton of variables are in play for the Hilltoppers: travel, altitude, and potential air quality. That can be overcome when you should be the better side. We know WKU will air it out, and Nevada's secondary appears suspect. So does the Wolfpack's potential to match points and keep up (17.6 ppg, minimal talent influx to change that). It's a battle of a known commodity facing elements versus a program with no momentum.
Last season: 38-37
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Greg's Picks
We're back for another year of the Capper.
I mention this at the start of every season, but it's best to be conservative early on, unless you spot an angle that the public has missed, which, early in the season, is possible as there is a limited amount of information right now. Personally, I like to take it easy until conference play starts. I like to see a team for at least two games before drawing conclusions about how it should fare week to week.
Until then, we'll try to find the best plays out there.
Okay, let's get to it, and good luck to everyone this season!
Purdue (-35.5) vs. Indiana State
Early in the season, especially in week 1, we don't have much to go on, but one thing I like to use is line movement. More early in the season vs. later in the season, I like following the line movements. Later in the season, the public's built-in biases come into play, but right now, all we have are people who presumably know one or both of these teams. In this case, we have Purdue, which opened at -33.5 and has since moved about the magic number of 35. No, 35 isn't like 3 or 7, but it's still a hurdle to clear, and this line has had no issue moving above 35. As for these teams, Indiana State simply can't handle teams from the Big Ten, and while Purdue may not be great this season, the Boilermakers should be able to clear this number.
Oklahoma (-40.5) vs. UTEP
This one has a lot to do with UTEP and what a disaster this team might be this season. UTEP has been in a tailspin for a few years, but it bottomed out last season. The question is, how quickly can this team reload because this 2-10 team lost a lot of starters. I know what you're thinking: maybe the replacements will be better, and that's certainly a possibility, but the way college football works now is that the good players from bad teams get plucked by better teams, and it leaves the team they departed with an empty cupboard. As for the Sooners, well, they should be better this season than last season as they return a lot of starters on both sides of the ball and should have more continuity on offense.
Stanford (+24.5) vs. Miami
I like Miami's chances to go far in the playoff this year, but this looks like a tough spot out of the gate. If this game were played later in the season, I'd likely go the other way, but I can see a scenario where Miami struggles out of the gate this season with a new QB. Throw in the travel and the start time for this game, and I can see Miami starting very slowly, only to get it going in the 2nd half. Stanford already has a game and a win under its belt, so the Cardinal enter with not only game reps, but some confidence as well. Again, if both teams play to their potential, Miami wins with ease, but I'm not expecting a clean game out of the gate for the Hurricanes.
Indiana (-40) vs. North Texas
I faded the Hoosiers in week one of last season, and it worked out, but soon after, Indiana went scorched Earth and started destroying everything in its path. I'm not quite sure what happened in the opener last year; perhaps it was an adjustment to a new QB, but I don't expect any hiccups out of the gate this season. The Hoosiers will again have to break in a new QB, but they went through that last year, so they know what to do now. Outside of that, the Hoosiers are the most business-like team in college football right now; they just show up every week and get the job done.
UCLA at 
California Over 53.5
I'm not usually a fan of taking overs early in the season, but I think this game has a chance to be a real back-and-forth affair. UCLA has a new staff from a James Madison team that scored in bunches last year, and while that doesn't always translate to bigger conferences, the Bruins have a lot of skill already on the offense, so it should be a seamless transition. The line on this game moved from Cal -1.5 to UCLA -1.5, which supports my theory that no one really knows who will win, which in my mind means there should be lead changes and plenty of scoring.
Last Season 38-36-0
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Jeff's Picks
It's time again for the College Capper, and I'm itching to get things started! I already got my fix with results on both ends of the emotional spectrum in Week 9, prepping me for the highs and lows that come with being a College Football wagerer. USC's scrubs foiled me as San Jose State took advantage, but New Mexico State hung close enough to cover against FSU, evening out my personal slate for the week. As always, my aim is to break 60 percent, but I barely scraped to 50 percent after a late surge. Still, 50 percent is a lot better than I've seen from pundits throughout the sports media landscape, save those who make only one pick a week. That's no measure! Here are my five.
Auburn (-7.5) vs. Baylor
This one is being played away from the oppressive heat in Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium. But what's that I see on the field? Are we sure those are Auburn uniforms? I could swear that I see a bunch of USF names on those jerseys. While I'm partly joking around, new coach Alex Golesh brought over 13 players from the Bulls, with 11 of them on offense. Gone are the days of sputtering Auburn offenses, as Golesh brings a high-flying aerial approach helmed by Byrum Brown, and these changes should send ripples through the SEC power structure. For Baylor, Dave Aranda needed to fill Sawyer Robertson's spot, and he got DJ Lagway. Not a bad trade. Both offenses look promising, but the differences here will be with the defenses. Auburn is stacked on that end of the ball, while the Bears are stuck with some holes due to portal and graduation departures.
LSU vs. Clemson Under 50.5
Both offenses have a new look. Chad Morris is back as Clemson's OC with an unproven quarterback, and as always, Lane Kiffin is bringing the drama with a revamped offense and potential starters that have become a legal battle with the SEC. While I think both teams will be able to put their defenses together, their offenses are a different story. LSU spent $50M to put the team together, but it's unclear that they've had enough time to form a cohesive unit. Clemson's Christopher Vizzina faces a big-time challenge under the lights at Death Valley West. I believe this game will dissolve into a defensive tug-of-war, with both offenses making their share of mistakes.
Ole Miss (-6.5) vs. Louisville
This game boils down to two factors. Can the Rebels win without Lane Kiffin? I think they can. Will Trinidad Chambliss outduel Lincoln Kienholz? I think he will. Look, there's no denying that the Cardinals have the necessary talent to make a run for the CFP. They've got a dynamite back in Isaac Brown and an above-average defense, but I can't bet against Chambliss. He turns broken plays into touchdowns, and while all the hype is about his dual-threat capability, his arm consistently throws accurate darts right on the numbers. I think the Over is a sound bet as well, but I'm fading most of the pundits who are smelling upset. They're playing in Nashville, so the crowd should be about even.
Missouri State (+40.5) @ Texas A&M
I can't resist throwing up one of these blowout contests. But hear me out, as this is probably an unpopular opinion. I'm not high on Texas A&M. I think they're ranked too high, and I believe the offense has a lot to prove. They nearly stumbled in their opener against UTSA last season, and we're looking at a squad chock-full of portal additions who haven't played at game speed yet. On the other end, former SMU OC Casey Woods takes over a squad with its own stack of portal adds. My take is that the Aggies build a sizable lead at the half, only to surrender a couple of touchdowns to Missouri State once they empty the bench.
James Madison (-6) vs. Liberty
I jumped on this bet when the odds dropped from -7, and my logic for this bet is pretty sound. Liberty has major questions at quarterback, and last year's defense didn't inspire much confidence. Meanwhile, the Dukes have a dynamite offensive line that will open up lanes for the backs, and if they elect to start JC Evans at QB, they're getting a dual-threat guy who will run effectively behind them.
