College Capper: Free College Football Picks This Week
Chris' Picks
I guess I'm trending in the right direction? A second straight winning week, but 3-2 doesn't cut it when you dug a hole, and you're largely taking minus odds. Seemingly another week of what could have been; Auburn kneels to run out the clock and secure a win but not a cover, and Missouri fails to cover by half a point. The latter stings when we're talking about minus odds, as I'm one to enjoy a single-game parlay to get to plus odds, but also one to take lesser odds to get over a hook that bit me here and just take a win.
Numbers I like but can't play include Georgia (-24.5) vs. Vanderbilt, as the Commodores have stung me two weeks in a row, and all things ND/UNC. The Heels can't score; their defense has impressed, and I have similar thoughts on the Irish. Notre Dame spread, and the under seem too simple.
Under 53.5 
Stanford at 
Wake Forest
This seems like a weird letdown spot for both sides. Wake is fresh off a road win against Louisville and riding high, and can seemingly look past Stanford, traveling east for a noon kickoff after winning at home against Georgia Tech. The stats don't back this up; Wake is allowing 28.0 ppg and Stanford 33.5 ppg. But the Cardinal's only trip east thus far yielded seven points at Duke. Last year, their season high was 20 at Virginia, with everything else coming in at 15 points or less. Hopefully they stink again, and it won't matter how many points the Deacons score.
Georgia State (-2.5) vs. Old Dominion
Right back on the Panthers train here, and I really don't understand the line. It's either a trap, or we're catching the books sleeping, which perhaps they are slowly waking up to as this has moved from a pick 'em to nearly a field goal. GSU is 4-0 SU and ATS, while ODU is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. Georgia State is going up and down the field, averaging 38.8 ppg; the Monarchs sit at 22.3 ppg, not topping 21 against FBS teams. They're 120th in rushing offense and 116th in passing. How can they possibly slow down GSU or match points?
James Madison (-18.5) vs. Marshall
I'm going against one cardinal rule I have: writing up games I can't bet on living in Virginia. If the pick loses, I take it personally that you can lose and I can't. Some programs just keep charging on, and that's where the Dukes seem to be, sitting at 4-0 ATS and SU. The Herd are so porous defensively, ranking second-to-last against the pass and 94th against the run. JMU wants to run, but because of Marshall's deficiencies, they'll find a ton of balance here. The line is rising rapidly, but I would tentatively play it up to (-20.5).
Coastal Carolina (+2.5) vs. Georgia Southern
There's a good chance I'm going to regret even considering this, as I find Georgia Southern to be the far better team. It seems like most agree, as the Chanticleers have gone from (-1.5) favorites to this current number. I'd monitor and see if we can get a further increased rising line. My angle is all about schedule. The Eagles battled impressively at Clemson, then suffered a letdown the next week at Jacksonville State. That came with the reward of playing Houston and losing handily last Saturday. Now they're tasked with a trip to Myrtle Beach. I smell another letdown and don't hate Coastal on the moneyline.
Texas A&M (-13.5) vs. Arkansas
The above picks include too many G5 picks that casual readers are just going to take without reading or consideration, while others will just ignore because who cares about Georgia State or Coastal Carolina; so I have to include one bigger-name option. Marcel Reed is struggling, but coming home against an opponent whose offense can't muster much should be a layup. Arkansas' two games against P4 schools have resulted in a combined 88-17 beatdown. This number probably should be closer to three touchdowns, so it seems like a buying opportunity thanks to A&M's recent struggles.
Last week: 3-2; Season 9-11
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Greg's Picks
I feared the worst after a 0-2 start this past week, but things turned around and I notched my first winning week of the season.
The week started poorly when Indiana failed to play any defense at all against Northwestern. I'll give the Wildcats some credit; they look pretty good on offense, but Indiana was supposed to be much better. From what I witnessed, this Indiana team is nowhere near the level of the title-winning team from last year. My second loss came just hours later as California couldn't keep up with Clemson.
I mentioned starting 0-2 last week, but I didn't tell you why I was worried about another terrible week, and that's because as I was sitting at 0-2, it occurred to me that I took the over in the UCLA-Maryland game, and that game happened to be in the path of the Nor'easter that made it nearly impossible for Boston College and Virginia Tech to move the ball. Luckily, the weather wasn't quite as bad in Maryland, but the Terps didn't get the memo. Fortunately, the Bruins took care of business and pushed the number over the total almost by themselves.
After that, it was on the Gators to provide another win, and that's exactly what they did. Florida was very impressive while dispatching the Rebels. The final win came on the over in the Oklahoma State-West Virginia game. Let's just say that the Cowboy offense is no joke.
Virginia Tech (-3) vs. Pittsburgh
A pair of undefeated teams meet up on Friday night in Blacksburg. Neither team has faced a stern test yet, but the Hokies have at least ventured out of their home stadium. Pittsburgh's schedule has been exceptionally weak, and the Panthers have yet to play a road game. The Hokies' schedule hasn't been great either, but at least they beat two Power 4 teams on the road. Their win at BC this past week was impressive, if only because they got behind and had to battle the elements to come back. I'm siding with the more battle tested team in this matchup. Pitt hasn't been on the road yet, and it is about to walk into a very tough environment.
Michigan (-5.5) at Minnesota
I promise this has nothing to do with being on the wrong side when Minnesota faced off against Mississippi State a few weeks ago. What this really is about is a program, Minnesota, that has never won this type of game before. The game after a big win, the next big win, the stack if you will. I know, different players over different years, but same coach, same mentality that bleeds through this program. The win at Washington last week was great, and if the Gophers win this week, then we got something, but if they don't, then it's the same old story: one big win, a good record at the end of the season, but nothing has really changed. Throw in that Michigan lost last week, and you have a highly motivated Wolverine team against a Gopher team that might be a little too happy about their win last week.
Iowa (+14.5) vs. Ohio State
I'm not really putting too much stock in Iowa's win last week at Michigan because I really don't know if Michigan is any good. This pick is based on a history of the Hawkeyes making things really tough on quality opponents in their house. Last year they lost to Indiana by five points and Oregon by two points. The Hawkeyes have a way of dragging teams into rock fights in Iowa City, and I think that's exactly what they'll do this week. OSU is battle-tested; the Buckeyes already beat a better team than Iowa on the road, but it wasn't easy. I think OSU wins, but it's not going to be easy.
Miami (-16.5) at Clemson
Clemson is in a really bad spot right now. The Clemson name still carries weight, but the Tigers just don't have the horses to keep up with the better teams anymore. The reason this is an issue is that teams will rarely overlook them because of their name, so they're usually getting the other team's best fight. Normally, a team like Miami might overlook a huge underdog, but not in this case. As for Miami, the Hurricanes have run through everyone in their path thus far, and while the competition hasn't been great, it's not really a huge upgrade here either. Clemson got a gritty win last week, but this isn't about grit this week; it's about talent, and Clemson doesn't have enough.
USC (-9.5) vs. Washington
Both teams come into this one off a loss last week, but those losses have nothing in common. USC lost to a talented Oregon team, and Washington lost to a Minnesota team that was a double-digit underdog. There is a chance that the Trojans struggle to get back up for this game after a tough loss last week, but I think they'll be ready. Washington meanwhile looks like a mess. Even before the loss last week, there were cracks; Minnesota just brought those cracks to the surface. If USC shows up early, the Trojans should have little trouble with this one.
Last Week 3-2-0
This Season 6-13-1
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Jeff's Picks
It was a wild week to finish 4-1, but I somehow navigated a minefield. The toughest bet (USC over) was one I watched with my own eyes, silently joyous while simultaneously consoling my USC alum partner, who didn't speak a word on the way home. Sweating through covers by Illinois and Florida were easy enough, and buying Komario Taylor proved to be the right call again. The only blemish came with Penn State, an upset loss that very few people saw coming. Let's see if we can keep the good vibes going.
Wisconsin (-10) vs. Michigan State
All of the cylinders are humming for the Badgers in a home matchup where they are heavily favored. After a dramatic road win over Penn State, Colton Joseph and company should be primed to dismantle the Spartans. The team may get Abu Sama back this week, which will add some extra punch to the run game, and few quarterbacks are running as hot as Joseph right now.
Over 60.5 
Mississippi State vs. 
Alabama
I was tempted to take Mississippi State and the six points, but what stopped me was a glance at Mississippi State's pass rush, which is virtually non-existent. While Keelon Russell has been inaccurate when pressured, he can create explosive plays two ways when he isn't under duress. Both offenses run uptempo, and Kamario Taylor will be a tough fit for Alabama's defense, which has struggled against mobile quarterbacks and outside zone schemes.
USC -9.5 vs. Washington
USC's defense is the team's biggest handicap, but Washington's offense is just as bad. Outside of Demond Williams, there isn't much to get excited about on the offensive end for Washington. They have no running game to speak of, and while Dezmen Roebuck is an excellent pass-catcher, he's definitely not getting utilized enough. Washington's defense has been fine, but Jayden Maiava has been very successful against defenses utilizing a Cover 3 concept, which the Huskies use almost exclusively. This should also be a good night for the running tandem of King Miller and Waymond Jordan, but that'll require Lincoln Riley to get his head out of the sand and accept that the Trojans are a run-first team with a good passing game, not the other way around.
Over 55.5 
Arizona vs. 
Cincinnati
I like to get my hands on two total bets a week, and after looking hard at Penn State/Iowa, I landed here. Both teams are very efficient and have excellent third-down conversion rates, a stat I look at often when betting totals. The Wildcats are more one-dimensional than the Bearcats, who excel with JC French throwing the ball or handing off to Gi'Bran Payne and Noah Tabb. Noah Fifita lacks a good running game, but it could be time for the unit to wake up against a Cincinnati run defense that gave up 155 rushing yards to Kansas State last week.
Miami (-16.5) @ Clemson
Oh, how this bet pains me. It's a bad time to be a Clemson fan, and I've bled orange through and through, growing up there and even being ball boy for the basketball team for two seasons. I could have made other choices, but this spread is hard to ignore. I'll give Tom Allen this much - his defense has definitely improved since the beatdown against LSU. Tait Reynolds and the offense, not so much. I think I've aged 10 years watching this offense through the first month, and I'm not exaggerating. I'm investigating heart supplements. I'll be over here chewing on beetroot while Miami goes to work, out-talenting the Tigers on offense and forcing several three-and-outs on defense.
Last Week: 4-1-0
Season: 9-11-0
