Week 5 has gotten some unfair critiques for being a light weekend. Last week did spoil us, true, but there are some fun games to dig into this weekend. This slate is no different. We have plenty of fun matchups for DFS and a few games with real CFP ramifications, like Alabama vs Mississippi State.
Below, we'll grab a quick recap of last week's results before diving into this week's slate with a matchup breakdown, games and teams to target, and a position-by-position breakdown. Let's boogie.
Week 4 Main Slate Recap
Best Point-Per-Dollar Plays from Week 4
| Rank | Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Actual FPTS | Pts/$1,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quanell Farrakhan Jr. | WR | Colorado | $3,000 | 21.7 | 7.23 |
| 2 | Reece Vander Zee | WR | Iowa | $3,400 | 23.6 | 6.94 |
| 3 | Wayshawn Parker | RB | Utah | $7,200 | 49.9 | 6.93 |
| 4 | Jeremiah Smith | WR | Ohio State | $8,900 | 60.7 | 6.82 |
| 5 | Joseph Williams | WR | Colorado | $5,300 | 34.66 | 6.54 |
| 6 | JJ Buchanan | WR | Michigan | $5,400 | 33 | 6.11 |
| 7 | Carlos Hernandez | WR | Wake Forest | $6,000 | 36.4 | 6.07 |
| 8 | Talyn Taylor | WR | Georgia | $4,200 | 24 | 5.71 |
| 9 | Rocky Beers | WR | Oklahoma | $3,900 | 21.4 | 5.49 |
| 10 | Julian Sayin | QB | Ohio State | $9,200 | 42.58 | 4.63 |
I want to highlight Jeremiah Smith here. To go 6x your value at just under $9K is just silly. If there's a limit to his game, I haven't seen it. We gotta enjoy the next couple of months of him playing on Saturdays.
Talyn Taylor is standing out to me as well. He has touchdowns in three of his four games and is looking the part of a No.1 for Georgia. He outperformed his salary big time against OU last week and is up just $200 on this slate as the Dawgs get set to take on Vanderbilt. Keep an eye on him.
Week 5 Slate Overview
Salary Bumps
The list below shows players whose salaries have jumped the most since last week
| Player | Pos | Team | Wk4 | Wk5 | Delta $ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Gilbert | WR | Notre Dame | $4,100 | $5,700 | $1,600 | |
| Bryce Underwood | QB | Michigan | $5,900 | $6,900 | $1,000 | |
| Jadan Baugh | RB | Florida | $9,100 | $9,800 | $700 | |
| Gunner Stockton | QB | Georgia | $8,000 | $8,700 | $700 | |
| Aiden Flora | RB | Iowa State | $5,600 | $6,300 | $700 | |
| Reece Vander Zee | WR | Iowa | $3,400 | $4,100 | $700 | |
| Jeremiah Smith | WR | Ohio State | $8,900 | $9,400 | $500 | |
| Nate Frazier | RB | Georgia | $7,000 | $7,500 | $500 |
This is an interesting list. Some of these jumps are based on performance, others based on a softer matchup. In some cases, a misprice last week, like Micah Gilbert, is now a proper price, so the bar is higher to extract value.
One I'd probably steer clear of is Nate Frazier. He got dinged up against Arkansas and didn't play against Oklahoma. He's questionable heading into Saturday, and with a date coming up against Alabama on the other side, it wouldn't be surprising to see Frazier sit this one out or at least get minimal work. Chauncey Bowens ($6,500) or Dwight Phillips Jr. ($4,700) would probably be my plays from the UGA backfield.
Salary Fallers
| Player | Pos | Team | Wk4 | Wk5 | Delta $ | Delta % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Curtis | QB | Vanderbilt | $6,600 | $5,100 | -$1,500 | -22.70% |
| Blaze Berlowitz | QB | Vanderbilt | $6,000 | $4,800 | -$1,200 | -20.00% |
| Sedrick Alexander | RB | Vanderbilt | $5,900 | $4,900 | -$1,000 | -16.90% |
| Tony Diaz | WR | Iowa | $5,500 | $4,600 | -$900 | -16.40% |
| Xavier Williams | RB | Iowa | $5,800 | $4,900 | -$900 | -15.50% |
| Keyone Jenkins | QB | UCF | $6,400 | $5,700 | -$700 | -10.90% |
| Luke Harpring | WR | Florida | $4,000 | $3,300 | -$700 | -17.50% |
| DeShawn Spencer | WR | Auburn | $4,100 | $3,500 | -$600 | -14.60% |
| Byrum Brown | QB | Auburn | $8,500 | $8,000 | -$500 | -5.90% |
Most of these are matchup-based docks. Vanderbilt goes to Athens to play Georgia. Iowa has to turn right around and play Ohio State after outlasting Michigan last weekend.
High Team Totals
- Georgia: 38 points
- Notre Dame: 34 points
- Alabama: 33.25 points
- Florida: 31.50 points
- Houston: 31.0 points
High Game Totals, Narrow Spreads
We've had to reframe our definition of big totals since the clock rule changes. Totals in the 70s have gone the way of the Dodo, and totals in the 60s are an endangered species. Five games on this slate have totals of at least 53 points. That's what we've had to define as a high total. Sigh.
Mississippi State (+6) vs Alabama (60.0)
This is probably the game of the weekend and definitely the game drawing the most attention on this slate. Super Kamario Taylor and the upstart Mississippi State Bulldogs get a chance to prove their legitimacy against Keelon Russell and the Tide. I'm getting chills just thinking about it.
I think most would expect Alabama to hold up their end of the bargain on the scoreboard. The Tide have an explosive offense, and Mississippi State's defense has been a little suspect this year. It comes down to Kamario Taylor and Co. and whether they can generate explosives like they have through the first four weeks.
Mississippi State ranks fourth in explosive play rate and seventh in success rate. Alabama's defense ranks 15th in success rate and has one of the best third-down defenses in the country. There's also supposed to be rain in Starkville, which puts the ground game into focus.
Mississippi State can obviously run it with Taylor and Fluff Bothwell. But if Alabama is able to key on that without the threat of the pass, I worry about Mississippi State's ability to move the ball.
Quarterback
Michael Hawkins, West Virginia ($8,500) at Iowa State
The road detail is a little concerning but Hawkins has been absolutely automatic for fantasy production this year. Hawkins has posted back-to-back weeks of at least 35 DraftKings points against Virginia and Oklahoma State and now heads to Ames to face the Cyclones.
Hawkins is running the ball at an astounding rate. It's basically like rostering a top-tier running back who will get you an extra 10-12 points worth of passing production. We love that. A passing game stack probably doesn't work for this offense, but Hawkins-Cam Cook is a duo that should get you most of West Virginia's production this week.
Keelon Russell, Alabama ($8,800) at Mississippi State
Russell has a chance to go from Heisman contender to Heisman favorite with a huge game this weekend. We have reason to believe he will. Russell has lived up to the hype thus far and improved every week. Back-to-back games with 300 yards passing and three touchdowns. Three games with a rushing touchdown. As a Georgia fan, I'm already terrified about next week.
Mississippi State has an okay secondary but not one that should give Russell too much trouble. If anything, my main concern about Russell returning value is the weather. Keep an eye on the forecast as we get close to kickoff but Russell should be in for a big game here.
Others to Consider
- Beau Pribula, Virginia ($7,600) at Florida State
- Colton Joseph, Wisconsin ($7,500) vs Michigan State
- Austin Simmons, Missouri ($6,900) vs Florida
Running Back
Cam Cook, West Virginia ($9,100)
I imagine the field will gravitate to Cook for the $700 in savings over Jadan Baugh. Both are obviously great plays but I'll give Cook some shine here.
Cook has been a machine. Every game that he's gotten a normal workload, he's gone for over 100 yards. And for him, a normal workload is in the neighborhood of 30 carries. Cook hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 2, which would usually keep his salary reasonable, but the pricers know that Cook has that 30+ point potential this week.
Iowa State has actually been solid against the run. Solid doesn't do it against the best rushing team in the country (non-Service Academy division). I'll be rostering Cook across the bulk of my builds this weekend.
Ousmane Kromah, Florida State ($5,900) vs Virginia
Kromah is one of the few value running backs I'd consider on this slate. In his two games against P4 competition, Kromah has absorbed just under 50% of the rushing work for the 'Noles. That type of volume projection against the second-worst run defense on the slate makes Kromah really appealing.
He's not just a compiler, either. Kromah is peeling off 6.2 yards per carry and has five rushing touchdowns already. FSU is only a 2.5-point underdog so I'm not worried about game flow working against him here.
Others to Consider
- DeSean Bishop, Tennessee ($7,600) vs Auburn
- Matt Fuller, South Carolina ($7,200) vs Kentucky
- Chauncey Bowens ($6,500) or Dwight Phillips ($4,700), UGA vs Vanderbilt
- *if Nate Frazier is out
Wide Receiver
Target Risers
Here's a table of pass-catchers whose targets jumped drastically from Week 3 to Week 4.
| Player | Team | Wk3 | Wk4 | Delta | Delta % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith | Ohio State | 6 | 16 | 10 | 39.00% |
| Tony Diaz | Iowa | 2 | 10 | 8 | 22.60% |
| Eugene Hilton | Wisconsin | 2 | 9 | 7 | 16.90% |
| Rico Flores | Virginia | 3 | 10 | 7 | 7.70% |
| Talyn Taylor | Georgia | 0 | 7 | 7 | 8.80% |
| Talyn Taylor | Ohio State | 0 | 7 | 7 | 12.50% |
| Cayden Lee | Missouri | 7 | 13 | 6 | 20.60% |
| Omari Hayes | Iowa State | 3 | 9 | 6 | 7.90% |
| Dominic Overby | Iowa State | 3 | 9 | 6 | 5.60% |
| Anthony Evans | Mississippi State | 7 | 11 | 4 | 7.10% |
Target Fallers
| Player | Team | Wk3 | Wk4 | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrell Henry | Wisconsin | 18 | 6 | -12 |
| Lotzeir Brooks | Alabama | 11 | 4 | -7 |
| Jordan Shipp | North Carolina | 7 | 0 | -7 |
| Mason Humphrey | North Carolina | 7 | 0 | -7 |
| Chas Nimrod | Auburn | 13 | 7 | -6 |
| Duce Robinson | Florida State | 8 | 3 | -5 |
| Micah Gilbert | Notre Dame | 9 | 4 | -5 |
| DJ Miller | Kentucky | 6 | 1 | -5 |
| Keshaun Singleton | Auburn | 11 | 7 | -4 |
| Amare Thomas | Houston | 10 | 6 | -4 |
The fallers need context. To have a big dropoff, you needed to have a big target week beforehand to begin with. It's good signal. Sometimes a dropoff can be chalked up to an easier matchup where the team wasn't throwing it as much. Sometimes you just run into a good pass defense. Still, it's worth knowing where the buy-lows are.
Week 5 Target Report
| Name | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj FPTS | YDS/TAR | TM TAR % | TAR | REC | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith | Ohio State | Iowa | 9400 | 34.72 | 13.4 | 35.7 | 46 | 33 | 617 | 7 |
| JJ Buchanan | Michigan | Minnesota | 5800 | 15.41 | 12.8 | 33 | 31 | 20 | 396 | 4 |
| Amare Thomas | Houston | UCF | 6600 | 18.72 | 8.7 | 30 | 33 | 23 | 287 | 4 |
| Anthony Evans | Mississippi State | Alabama | 6800 | 17.34 | 11 | 29.1 | 37 | 28 | 408 | 3 |
| Mike Matthews | Tennessee | Auburn | 6400 | 14.55 | 9 | 28.2 | 29 | 14 | 261 | 3 |
| Cayden Lee | Missouri | Florida | 6300 | 18.04 | 12.2 | 27.7 | 33 | 26 | 403 | 4 |
| DJ Epps | West Virginia | Iowa State | 5200 | 10.19 | 15.5 | 27.7 | 18 | 10 | 279 | 3 |
| Donovan Olugbode | Missouri | Florida | 6200 | 15.88 | 10.4 | 26.1 | 31 | 21 | 322 | 5 |
| Junior Sherrill | Vanderbilt | Georgia | 5400 | 14.42 | 11.8 | 25.4 | 31 | 21 | 367 | 2 |
| Ryan Coleman-Williams | Alabama | Mississippi State | 7400 | 15.17 | 12.8 | 23.9 | 26 | 17 | 333 | 3 |
| Duce Robinson | Florida State | Virginia | 4100 | 10.69 | 11.9 | 23.7 | 22 | 13 | 262 | 2 |
| Jordan Faison | Notre Dame | North Carolina | 5900 | 12.86 | 10 | 22.2 | 24 | 17 | 239 | 2 |
| Jordan Shipp | North Carolina | Notre Dame | 4200 | 10.37 | 9.1 | 21.7 | 18 | 13 | 164 | 0 |
| Javon Tracy | Minnesota | Michigan | 5200 | 13.44 | 9.4 | 21.6 | 30 | 24 | 281 | 1 |
| Jayvan Boggs | Florida State | Virginia | 4500 | 9.36 | 12 | 21.5 | 20 | 12 | 240 | 1 |
| Lotzeir Brooks | Alabama | Mississippi State | 6600 | 14.06 | 11.1 | 21.1 | 23 | 17 | 256 | 1 |
| Jaden Bray | West Virginia | Iowa State | 3900 | 6.66 | 9.1 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 118 | 0 |
This week I'm going to hone in on some cheaper receivers (sub-$5K) to help you fill out your rosters. You don't need me to tell you Jeremiah Smith is a good play, at least this week. I honestly feel that the tier of receivers from $7,400 on down to $6,000 is underwhelming enough that I'd rather save my cap space and use it on the elite running backs and quarterbacks.
Talyn Taylor, Georgia ($4,400) vs Vanderbilt
The breakout is happening, folks. Taylor jumped up to seven targets last week and torched the Sooners for 110 yards and a score. It's a small-ish sample -- 12 targets -- because Georgia has yet to really be tested and they spread it around a lot. But the target pecking order is starting to come into focus and Taylor is elevating.
Georgia has the highest implied total of any team on this slate (38 points) and rostering Taylor is a high-upside way of getting exposure to that.
Patrick Overmyer, Houston ($4,300) vs UCF
Overmyer is a classic case of tight ends getting discounted in DFS. He's commanding a 24.5% target share in an explosive offense and is returning just under 9.0 yards per target. Houston is another team with a high total on this slate, and their game is expected to be at least semi-competitive with the Cougars, who are checking in as 12.5-point favorites.
I think something like five catches for 50 yards and a score is in the cards here for Overmyer.
Rico Flores, Virginia ($4,500) at Florida State
Virginia might be an important piece of the puzzle for this slate. Florida State has one of the worst secondaries on this slate and allows nearly 300 passing yards per game. The problem is that Virginia has been a lower-passing-volume team thus far, checking in with a pass play rate just under 40%.
Flores was something of a big get for Virginia in the portal as a former high-pedigree prospect with stops at Notre Dame and UCLA. He was hurt to start the year but is starting to come on strong -- he drew 10 targets last week, albeit against Delaware. That came on just 30 snaps, too. He played 38 snaps the previous week. With a prominent role now, Flores' target projection outpaces his $4,500 salary against a bad defense. He'll almost certainly have a low roster percentage and if this play hits, you'll have pretty strong leverage on the field.
Tyrell Henry, Wisconsin ($4,900) vs Michigan State
Unlike Virginia, Wisconsin is actually chucking it this year. Yes, you read that right. The Badgers have a 50.6 percent pass play rate. That's higher than SMU or Ohio State.
Wisconsin is in a big spot here and has to prove that last week's big win over Penn State wasn't a fluke. They get Michigan State at home and check in as 10-point favorites. Henry has been a big part of Wisconsin's success through the air with 24 catches for 307 yards and a touchdown while carrying a 32.5% target share. I wish there was a little more explosiveness in the production, but that reception floor will play nicely at $4,900.
Others to Consider
- Duce Robinson, Florida State ($4,100)
- JJ Buchanan, Michigan ($5,800)
