College Football Picks: LSU vs. Ole Miss Best Bets
It's Week 3, and all eyes will be on Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi on Saturday night, as Public Enemy No. 1, Lane Kiffin, brings his LSU Tigers to town to face the Ole Miss Rebels, the team he bailed on in the College Football Playoffs last season.
Kiffin had repaired his image, ever so slightly, in Oxford, but he blew things up overnight, taking a huge bag from the Tigers while leaving, like the Baltimore Colts, in a Mayflower moving van overnight. It was disloyal, it was a bad move, and it was everything that is wrong with college football.
Ole Miss legit had a shot at the national championship last season, which would have elevated Kiffin to legendary status, but he chose to chase a paycheck instead. That's basically the story all across college football right now, so when people ask kids to be loyal, they simply need to look at Kiffin and ask why?
Whatever happened previously in this series doesn't really matter. And once the game begins, even the old coach and the new coach, Pete Golding, don't really matter, either. It's all about this matchup and these players.
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The Tigers roll into Oxford with a pair of victories to open the season. LSU absolutely slaughtered Clemson in a nationally televised game on Labor Day weekend, easily cashing as a 10.5-point favorite as the Over (49.5) cashed. LSU then proceeded to embarrass Louisiana Tech 45-14 last weekend, narrowly missing as 34.5-point favorites as the Over (54.5) hit yet again.
Former Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt has completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 574 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions. Those miscues are there, and he needs to cut them down substantially. He has been a force on the ground, however, running for a team-high five touchdowns and 135 yards. In fact, Leavitt is responsible for five of LSU's eight rushing touchdowns so far.
Originally, Leavitt was listed as doubtful due to an undisclosed injury, and it's uncertain if that is true or a little gamesmanship. On Thursday, he was bumped up to questionable, and by Friday, he was removed. That's some super healing!
Ole Miss also opened with an impressive win over an ACC team, taking care of Louisville 41-38 in Nashville on Sept. 6, although it failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites as the Over (54.5) easily came through. It thumped Charlotte 41-9 last night in The Grove, but also misfired on the cover as 44.5-point favorites, as the Under (59.5) came in.
LSU vs. Ole Miss Betting Odds for Week 3
Spread: LSU -2.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Ole Miss +3.0 (Hard Rock Bet)
Total: Over 58.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Under 58.5 (Fanatics Sportsbook)
Moneyline: LSU -146 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Ole Miss +130 (BetMGM)
The line is a flat three at a majority of shops, although FanDuel is still offering -2.5 if you hurry. If you're in on Ole Miss, they're the outlier at +3.5, too, at the time of publishing, but that might not last long as bettors finalize bets on Saturday. There isn't a ton of variance on the moneyline, although FanDuel offers the best bargains on LSU, too. Several books offer Ole Miss at +130 or higher. For the total, it's almost exclusively set at 58.5, and it hasn't budged.
LSU vs. Ole Miss Betting Picks for Week 3
Lost in all of the hoopla is Heisman Trophy candidate Trinidad Chambliss. He is one of the lasting moves by Kiffin that went well. He benched Austin Simmons (now at Mizzou), and hitched his wagon to Chambliss, and he exploded into a college football star.
Chambliss has completed 71.0 percent of his passes for 561 yards, five touchdowns and one interception, while he has been sacked just once. He has rushed for 62 yards and a touchdown, too, but RB Kewan Lacy is the man to tote the rock, going for 148 yards and three scores. Lacy left the Louisville game due to a thigh injury, but he was able to face Charlotte, and he was rested after appearing, thanks to a lopsided score.
For LSU, LB TJ Dottery is listed as questionable, and LB Jaiden Braker, RB Raycine Guillory Jr. and WR Phillip Wright III are out. For Ole Miss, OL Emanuel Faulkner and CB Victor Lincoln Jr. are out, and CB Cedrick Beavers is doubtful.
Our best play here is to go Over. We're going to see a lot of points, and it should go right down to the end, too.
LSU vs. OIe Miss Expert Pick: Over 58.5 (-108 DraftKings Sportsbook)
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LSU at Ole Miss Predictions for Week 3
What a wild scene we're going to have in Oxford. While they'd NEVER admit it, Ole Miss fans and alumni can actually thank Kiffin, because he has made their fine university the center of the college football universe on Saturday. Everyone is going to want to see this game. Act accordingly, Oxford.
We've seen a ton of side stories, and it's hard not to cheer for Golding and the Rebels. Chambliss is also the better quarterback on the field, making fewer miscues than his counterpart Leavitt, and he has a tremendous running back in Lacy.
Heading into this game, the Ole Miss defense is giving. LSU isn't Charlotte, and the Rebels are going to struggle making tackles. But, ultimately, I'll take the Rebels because of the Chambliss factor. Karma is good, and Ole Miss deserves this win. But you can't bet with heart. You have to bet with facts, and the two best players on the field will be wearing blue and red.
Prediction: Ole Miss 37, LSU 34
LSU vs. Ole Miss Player Props for Saturday, Sept. 19
Looking to the player props, we've obviously mentioned Chambliss, so we'll be looking his way for sure. In fact, we're going with the field general on both sides.
Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss - Anytime Touchdown (+140 FanDuel)
Chambliss should amass a decent amount of passing yards in this showdown with his former coach, but the real bargain, in terms of betting, is with his legs. Chambliss is capable to punching one in while running, and at plus-money, we're on that.
Sam Leavitt, QB, LSU - 2+ Passing Touchdowns (-118 FanDuel)
I feel as if Leavitt will make more mistakes, but he'll also make some things happen in the passing game, especially with passing touchdowns. We simply need to get to two passing TDs in what is expected to be a shootout. While there is some slight concern with the mysterious injury, or whether it is real or not, just roll with it and go Over here.
