College Football Picks: Michigan vs. Oklahoma Best Bets
A battle of "undefeated" teams in Ann Arbor this week as 11th-ranked Oklahoma travels to Michigan for what should be an entertaining match-up. Oklahoma looked great in week one, dispatching UTEP, while Michigan officially beat Western Michigan, but it wasn't without controversy.
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Michigan vs. Oklahoma Betting Odds for Week 2
Spread: Oklahoma -4.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Michigan +5.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 43 (BetRivers); Under 43.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: Oklahoma -198 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Michigan +170 (Caesars)
A lot of movement here as Michigan originally opened as the favorite a while ago, but has since moved to the decisive underdog. It's no surprise that the public has jumped all over Oklahoma after what happened in Ann Arbor last week, but has the line shifted too far in favor of the Sooners?
Michigan vs. Oklahoma Betting Picks for Week 2
If you follow college football, even just a little, you know what went down at the Big House last week. I won't get into the details here, but the consensus is that Western Michigan got a raw deal and Michigan should not have won that game.
No matter how you feel about the outcome of that game, the reality is that it will have an effect on this game. The Wolverine players and coaching staff have had to deal with something all week that they'd rather not deal with, and that's controversy. Sure, at some point they were probably able to put that aside and move on, but in the age of social media, you know, those players were consuming all the opinions this week and perhaps fighting their case as well. Bottom line, it's been a distraction this week, and maybe that's a good thing because anything to take the focus off of how Michigan actually played last week is probably a plus.
Michigan was a mess this past week, well, at least on offense. The defense held up, but let's remember who they were facing. The offense could not have looked worse. Bryce Underwood was 12/23 throwing the ball, with just one TD: the Hail Mary at the end of the game. The RBs were held under 4 ypc, and only one WR had more than 20 yards receiving. Just a complete disaster, and now the Wolverines get a Sooner team that allowed exactly zero points in week one.
As for the Sooners, just the opposite of Michigan, they couldn't have looked much better in week one. As I mentioned, zero points surrendered; the defense definitely showed up, as did the offense, which put up 51 points. Yes, the competition was lacking, but the same was true for Michigan; there's no reason that the Wolverines couldn't have had a similar result.
Oklahoma looks like a team that's already in midseason form, while Michigan looks like a team that needs a few more weeks to get ready for the season. Everything, and I mean everything, is pointing to a Sooner victory this week, and that makes me nervous because I'm actually siding with Oklahoma this week.
I'm usually the contrarian in this spot, but the manner in which Michigan won this past week has undoubtedly slowed its ability to address the shortcomings from last week. Normally, a team that escapes with a win is in a great spot because they got the W and their coaches can still get all over the players for the way they played. This week, however, there's been so much talk about how Michigan won that I wonder if anyone is actually looking forward instead of backward.
That distraction, along with the fact that Oklahoma just appears to be the better team in all aspects, will allow the Sooners to come into the Big House and plant their flag...metaphorically.
Bet Rivers has the best line on this game, but I'm comfortable laying the 5.5 points that most books are offering as well.
Michigan vs. Oklahoma Expert Pick: Oklahoma -4.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Michigan vs. Oklahoma Predictions for Week 2
I can't say for certain how Michigan is going to respond to a week full of distractions, but I would guess that the players feel like it's "us against the world" because, well, most of the nation is against them at this point. That will likely lead to an inspired start to this game and I wouldn't be surprised to see Michigan play well and get an early lead, but sooner or later (pardon the pun), Oklahoma's talent is going to win out.
Michigan's defense will make things tough on the Sooners, but Oklahoma shouldn't have to do much on offense to win this game. The Sooner defense should be able to shut down the Wolverine offense and perhaps create a turnover or two.
It's imperative for Michigan to get the lead in this game and try to hold on, because if the Wolverines get behind early, this could get ugly. I think Michigan starts this game with the necessary fire and keeps it close for a while.
Oklahoma 27 - Michigan 13
Michigan vs. Oklahoma Player Props for Saturday, September 12th
John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma Over 11 rush attempts (Prize Picks)
Mateer only ran the ball three times this past week against UTEP, but that wasn't unexpected. QBs that like to run don't run as often when facing lesser competition because they find it easier to move through the air. Against better teams, however, they'll not only run more often, but they'll get sacked as well, which counts as a rush attempt in college. For all the talk about how poor the Michigan offense looked last week, the Wolverines can still bring it on defense, and that stout defense will force Mateer to run more than maybe he'd like to this week. Throw in a couple sacks, and we should hit the over here.
Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan Under 29.5 pass attempts (Underdog)
This is a bit scary as I'm expecting Michigan to be trailing for most of the second half, but there are still a couple routes to victory even if that happens. The first is that Underwood uses his legs more, which he has done in the past when trailing. The second is that things go so bad that Michigan goes to the backup at some point. I don't think that's likely, but the heat is definitely on Underwood after this past week. The other scenario is that Michigan does come out strong and manages to slow the game down with the run game. That would be the optimal path to victory with this play.
