College Football Picks: Ohio State vs. Iowa Best Bets
The Big Ten is delivering us a big game in Week 5. Just don't expect a barnburner. Two teams currently in the top 15 are squaring off: the 14th-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes and the 5th-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. The Buckeyes, as is a requirement in Columbus, are a likely playoff team and a theoretical title contender, but they have to take a trip to the Hawkeye State. If they can't avoid an upset, the Buckeyes will be in trouble. A home win for Iowa would be an upset, though, so let's delve into that.
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Ohio State vs. Iowa Betting Odds for Week 5
Spread: Ohio State -14 (BetMGM), Iowa +14.5 (Caesars)
Total: Over 45.5 (DraftKings), Under 45.5 (BetRivers)
Moneyline: Ohio State -600 (Caesars Sportsbook), Iowa +500 (BetMGM)
The books are in lockstep on the spread, and also the over/under. Yes, the Buckeyes are on the road. Yes, the Hawkeyes are undefeated and ranked 15th in the nation. Ohio State is still favored by a hair, two touchdowns over Iowa. Is that a vote of confidence in the former, a vote of no confidence in the latter, or a bit of both?
Ohio State vs. Iowa Betting Picks for Week 5
Ohio State has a loss, and Iowa does not. Is it more complicated than that? Of course. The Buckeyes lost by one point on the road against Texas, which was ranked fourth at the time and is ranked first now. The Buckeyes have obliterated the rest of the competition, and they are currently second in SP+. They are first offensively and third defensively.
Iowa, to its credit, has smashed Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa. Were this a game against Northern Ohio, surely the Hawkeyes could be trusted to win with ease. On the other hand, while undefeated, Iowa won at home over Iowa State 16-13, and it beat Michigan 20-19 thanks to a bit of a karmic shift in last-second offense for Michigan. The Hawkeyes rank 19th in SP+. Unsurprisingly, they are 10th defensively, and 16th on special teams, but only 51st offensively.
The thing about Ohio State winning by over two touchdowns is that Iowa has allowed 32 points all season. It is a defense that has only allowed 239.8 total yards per game. Of course, the Buckeyes have allowed 49 total points and played at Texas, so it's not like Iowa is likely to score a ton.
I feel good about taking the under on that 45.5-point total, certainly. On top of that, I feel good about Ohio State winning. Losing to Texas by one point on the road is forgivable, and the fact that Ohio State still ranks fifth shows I am not alone in that assessment. Is this a "reality check" for the undefeated Hawkeyes, a clear home loss that shows this is not a real contender for anything? Narratively, if the Hawkeyes don't cover but it isn't a blowout, that's effectively what is expected, and nobody takes them too seriously, but they go about their business and go, you know, 9-3 or whatever this year. Honestly, looking at the rest of the schedule, this could easily be a 10-2 Iowa team. If the Buckeyes don't cover, though, unless it's literally scoring 14 with a line of 14.5, people will start to challenge the seriousness of this team as contenders. Plus, ultimately, one of these teams has Jeremiah Smith and the other does not.
Ohio State vs. Iowa Expert Pick: Ohio State -14 (BetMGM)
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Ohio State vs. Iowa Predictions for Week 5
I see this game hitting the under on 45.5. With less confidence, I see Ohio State covering the 14.5-point spread. The clearest path to that for me is built on Iowa really struggling to score. Which, you know, is easy to envision. The Hawkeyes are ranked 51st in offensive SP+, after all. Ohio State has allowed 12.3 points per game, and Iowa 8.0. Obviously, the Buckeyes have to score more than eight points to cover the spread, unless the Hawkeyes break with tradition and score negative points.
For Ohio State to cover, though, I don't think Iowa can even get to 12 points, and that feels plausible to be sure. Iowa grinds out a touchdown and adds a long field goal. Ohio State sweats it out but is able to solve the Iowa defense a time or two, maybe with a couple of convenient short fields. It won't be elegant, but the Buckeyes can churn out a comfortable, but decidedly not easy, win down in Iowa.
Ohio State 27, Iowa 10
Ohio State vs. Iowa Player Props for Saturday, October 3
Bo Jackson, RB, Ohio State at Iowa - Under 66.5 rushing yards (FanDuel)
Jackson has only been held under 67 rushing yards once this season, against Illinois, but he only got 11 carries. Of course, one issue is that he's had 11 or fewer carries three times in four games. Against Illinois, Jackson averaged 4.8 yards per carry. Jackson got over 67 rushing yards against Texas, but it took 19 carries. Texas has allowed 99.3 rushing yards per game, and Iowa has allowed 87.8. Obviously, one big run and Jackson will likely hit the over, but this is a bet that such a run does not happen in this one.
Tony Diaz, WR, Iowa vs. Ohio State - Under 53.5 receiving yards (FanDuel)
At Texas-Rio Grande Valley last season, Diaz had 875 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns, making him the perfect guy to get a chance at Iowa, a school not known for offensive firepower. In the first two games of the year, he cleared 80 receiving yards. Encouraging! Then, against Northern Iowa, he only had two catches for 22 yards, but he was only targeted twice in an easy win. Understandable! Against Michigan, he had three catches for 46 yards on 10 targets. Concerning! Going up against Ohio State's secondary, hitting 54 receiving yards feels like a big ask.
