College Football Picks: Oregon vs. USC Best Bets
An old-fashioned Pac-12 battle, now a Big Ten clash, takes place this week in sunny California as the Oregon Ducks look to get back on track against a USC team that looks to stay undefeated.
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Oregon vs. USC Betting Odds for Week 4
Spread: Oregon -2.5 (Hard Rock Sportsbook); USC +3.5 (Fanatics)
Total: Over 61.5 (theScore); Under 62.5 (BetRivers)
Moneyline: Oregon -165 (BetMGM), USC +150 (theScore)
This line originally opened at Oregon -5.5, but the Ducks' struggle two weeks ago at Oklahoma State has altered the public's perception of this team. USC has likely gained some support with its 4-0 start to the season, even though the Trojans struggled to put away Rutgers this past week. The total has risen as well, which makes sense considering the amount of points each of these teams put up last week.
Oregon vs. USC Betting Picks for Week 4
Much of this game will be decided on which Oregon team shows up at the Coliseum. Will it be the one that did anything it wanted this past week against Portland State or the one that couldn't even slow down Oklahoma State?
Logically, you'd think the version that we saw against OSU is the one we'll see this week, as results against Portland State don't really mean anything. The way that Oregon kept its foot on the gas in that game makes me wonder if Dan Lanning believes in this team. It's almost like he thought his team needed a confidence boost, which is why the Ducks were still passing late in the 4th quarter of that game with a 77-0 lead. In my mind, we throw that game out and focus on the first two games against OSU and Boise State.
In those two games, the offense looked okay, but not explosive, and the defense had some major issues. The Ducks surrendered 66 points over the first two weeks, and that's something that a shutout of Portland State isn't going to cure. If anything, it might give them a false sense of security, making them think their issues are addressed.
USC meanwhile is a perfect 4-0 this season, but there are still some questions about this team, mostly surrounding the defense. The offense has been sharp in all four games, averaging over 40 points per game and that's with just one cupcake in the mix. The defense, though, allowed some easy yards to Rutgers this past week, and that came just a week after allowing 30 points to UL Lafayette.
The main questions on both sides revolve around the defenses. The offenses look fine; yeah, Oregon hasn't quite shown its best against better competition yet, but I think that's coming.
This game has the feel of a shootout. Both teams have solid QBs, and both enter averaging 40+ points per game. Question marks on defense, plus solid QB play on both sides, equals a lot of points.
Oregon vs. USC Expert Pick: Over -61.5 (theScore Bet)
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Oregon vs. USC Predictions for Week 4
I mentioned we have a shootout in-store, and I don't see any reason for a slow start, so I'm expecting the points to come early and often. Both teams have issues on defense, and both have offenses firing on all cylinders.
USC allowed over five yards per carry this past week, so expect Oregon to try to get the ground game going early. Same for the Trojans as Oregon allowed nearly six yards per carry against OSU two weeks ago.
The success of the ground game will open up the pass game for each team, so expect some big plays early.
We could see some adjustments after the half, but I'm expecting to be at least 2/3rds of the way to the over by the half, so even if they slow down in the 2nd half, we might only need a few scores by that point.
This could be a "last team with the ball" type of game, so I don't have a strong feeling about either side, but I am leaning towards USC because Oregon's issues seem like a bigger deal at this point. Remember, this is likely an elimination game for Oregon should it lose, so nerves could play a role late in the game.
USC 38 - Oregon 35
Oregon vs. USC Player Props for Saturday, September 26th
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon Over 271.5 Pass Yards (Prize Picks)
I feel like you could take just about anyone on either offense to go over their number this week, but this seems like the safest play on Oregon, as the Ducks will need to keep up with USC, which means plenty of passing, especially late in the game. Moore hasn't been really sharp this season, but he has gone over this number in 2/3 games. The Trojans allowed 292 passing yards to Rutgers this past week, and I dare say Oregon has a more potent air attack.
King Miller, RB, USC Over 72.5 Rush yards (Underdog)
USC struggled to get Miller going out of the gate, but after a couple of rough games, Miller seems back on track. Miller failed to top this number in his first two games; he's put up 128 and 102 yards in his two most recent games. The two important numbers here are 5.9, which is the yards per carry Oregon allowed to OSU and 2:1, which is the ratio of carries for Miller vs. the next closest RB on USC. Miller is the clear lead back in this offense, and USC will likely lean on him more in this game than in previous games, considering the stakes.
