College Capper: Free College Football Picks This Week
Well, at least we're trending in a better direction, as Week 3 brought a winning week and marked three straight weeks of slight positivity. But it could have been much better; freaking NC State. There are bad beats, and then there's that.
I'd love to sell you gaining confidence, but I'm admittedly not there yet. I'll keep trying, while maybe also suggesting you find your favorites throughout the column for full-unit plays and toy with the others for less money. One heavy underdog I'm looking at is Central Michigan. Miami went into a shell last week, lost two key skill players for the year, and whispers suggest a lot of their other aces are banged up. It just doesn't profile as a spot where they need to run this up.
Chris' Picks
Georgia State (-10) vs. Northern Illinois
I don't love wild swings, which I have here, as I actually thought the Panthers would struggle two weeks ago against Kennesaw State. But their offense is humming, rushing for 200+ in every game while throwing for at least 250. That includes against UCF last week, who may not be great defensively, but they surely have the higher talent. NIU has been terrible, scoring 41 points in three games, including a loss to Illinois State. It's their third long road trip in four weeks to boot.
Utah (-8) at Iowa State
Utah took three true trips east last season, winning 48-14 at West Virginia, 55-28 at Baylor and 31-21 at Kansas. Iowa State battled Iowa, but that's a rivalry. They're still a team with a new staff and 48+ transfers seeking an identity. Arkansas State transfer QB Jaylen Raynor has four touchdowns through three games and hasn't topped 184 yards. I'm not buying Aiden Flora's breakout against Bowling Green in their backfield. I'm a touch worried about the Utes' rushing attack, but QB Devon Dampier has to be worth a touchdown or more, and he was elite in those road games with a 9:1 TD:INT ratio. Keep an eye on this line, as it's already (-9.5) in some spots. If it goes over 10, I'm a little less confident.
Iowa (+5.5) at Michigan
Through three weeks, I feel I've done at least a reasonable job of avoiding some trap lines and not taking the bait. This feels like one of those spots; Michigan has been bad offensively, and the low point total just screams take the underdog to make it ugly and have a chance. Hell, Iowa only lost to Indiana by five last year. Maybe a teaser/single game parlay is better....Iowa +12.5/under 45, or whatever number combination you like to get your desired odds. Two elite defenses; neither team can pass; neither team has an elite body of work. Iowa's run it better. Give me the points.
Auburn (-9.5) vs. Vanderbilt
I'm going to go right back to the Vandy well, and if they burn me again, they'll be off my card (until they aren't; this team isn't built to compete in the SEC...) It will be Jared Curtis' first road experience, and if we want to give him credit for getting the Commodores back into things last week, he also gets blame for them being down early. Two interceptions (largely thanks to a lack of sacks), and no run game are bad news. Byrum Brown and the Tiger offense appear to be cranking up.
Missouri (+6.5) at Mississippi State
This has shootout written all over it, so I'm happy to take (nearly) a touchdown to start with. Austin Simmons hasn't thrown an interception yet, won a road game in a rivalry spot at Kansas, and coming from Ole Miss, he'll at least have an idea about cowbells and Starkville. Both teams have been stout against the run, but it's the Bulldogs who've seen their rushing offense decrease in each outing as their competition picks up. I'm a huge Kamario Taylor fan (drafted him last year in an ACC/SEC dynasty league), and he'll get his. But the hype is due to slow.
Last week: 3-2; Season 6-9
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Greg's Picks
I mentioned last week that it's not much fun to sit down and write this article the week after a terrible showing, and although this past week wasn't great, I'm actually feeling good right now because we are done with the silly non-conference portion of the season.
Weeks 0 and 1 are always tough because we have no idea what these teams actually are, and though we get a better look at them in weeks 2 and 3, we still don't know exactly what each team is.
We do get some idea when we look at the entire four weeks of data, but really, most of these teams have played about one real game to this point, so we're relying a lot on that particular outcome. As we get further into the season, we'll have more data. For now, we're still low on data, but we're starting to build a profile, which should make picking these games a little easier.
A quick recap of last week's games. It started well with a Houston cover, one that I was fairly lucky to get, as the Cougars were down 8 with a couple of minutes to play and scored a TD on their final drive.
The next game hurt. It was the under in the Clemson-North Carolina game. Clemson had the ball with under three minutes left, attempting to run the clock out, when the Tigers hit for a long TD run, a TD that pushed the number over the total. Making matters worse, the TD and XP only put Clemson up 8 points, so the correct move was not to score there and then run the clock out, but I digress.
This isn't the NFL; coaches and players don't think about the big picture often. UTEP was up next, and although I pushed on that one, I felt I deserved better, as UTEP was hanging with Michigan at the half. The last two games were losses on big underdogs. It's one of many reasons I'm happy that we're in conference play. No more ridiculous lines.
Indiana (-21) vs. Northwestern
I've kept a pretty close eye on Indiana this season, and while the Hoosiers are 3-0, they haven't been very impressive. With that said, I think it has more to do with boredom than anything else. I think the Hoosiers have just been waiting for the real season to start. Northwestern might have slipped under the radar under normal circumstances, but the Wildcats trounced Colorado this past week, and that's sure to catch the Hoosiers' attention. A closer look, however, reveals that the 41-7 final score is a bit misleading. Northwestern won the turnover battle 4-1, and while the 'Cats did outplay the Buffaloes, they allowed 5.5 yards per carry on the ground. Indiana will take notice of that.
California (+1.5) vs. Clemson
All things being equal, I'm not sure which team is better here. Clemson got thumped in its first game against LSU and rebounded with two straight wins, one against a decent North Carolina team. California lost at UCLA, which looks to have at least a very strong offense this season, but also rebounded with two straight wins. One was on the road at Syracuse, which is surely no powerhouse this season, but a road win against a Power 4 team is always something to be proud of. The issue here for Clemson is that the Tigers spent a lot of time dispatching North Carolina on Saturday (there was a long weather delay), and they have to play five days later, on the West Coast at what would be 10:30 their time. It's a body-clock game, and with two evenly matched teams, it could be the difference.
Over (56.5) 
UCLA at 
Maryland
I've caught UCLA a couple of times this season, and the Bruins look like a great over team. The Bruins have a high-powered offense and a defense that leaks quite often. Maryland's offense isn't quite at UCLA's level, but the Terps have plenty of weapons. The defense, however, looks like it might have some holes, as it allowed 35 points this past week to Virginia Tech. This should be a back-and-forth game, especially since it's a reverse body-clock game for the Bruins, as it kicks off at 10:30 Pacific Time. The offense is good enough to fight through it, but the defense may struggle more than usual. There is some wind in the forecast, but it doesn't look like it will dramatically affect the passing game.
Florida (-3) vs. Ole Miss
This line doesn't look right, right? Ole Miss just beat one of the best teams in the country, and now the Rebels are underdogs to the 21st-ranked Gators? I think the oddsmakers are baking in the human factor here, which in this case is the fact that it's going to be hard to come down off the high of the win this past weekend. The Rebels put so much into the game against LSU that it's hard to imagine they'll have much left in the tank this week, but if they don't bring it, they'll be in trouble. This is one of those games where you have to put aside what you saw on Saturday night and just accept that you probably won't see the same Ole Miss team this week.
Over (60.5) 
Oklahoma State at 
West Virginia
Oklahoma State's offense struggled in its first game of the season, but facing Oregon the following week seemed to unlock something. The Cowboys have found their stride on offense, and I don't think that changes this week, since WVU has already had some defensive issues this season. Offensively, the Mountaineers have looked pretty solid; they're coming off a nice showing this past week, putting up 38 points against Virginia. This feels like a back-and-forth game that won't be decided until late in the fourth quarter.
Last Week 1-3-1
This Season 3-11-1
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Jeff's Picks
I started the week by falling victim to one of the most bone-headed plays in college football history. Kneel and take the safety! Taking NC State and +3 had to be the worst bad beat of the week, but my card also suffered elsewhere. Clemson woke up and beat the Under bet, and my only win was Mississippi State +4.5. I'm taking another big swing with the Bulldogs this week. Oh, and if you read last week, I said I'd tell you how those mystery last-minute switches would have worked? I'd be 3-2 instead of 1-4. Whoops!
Illinois (+27.5) @ Ohio State
Even though this game is at the Horseshoe, Katin Houser has proven that he can generate a lot of points, and he's one half of one of the most underrated and overlooked tandems in the country. Collin Dixon has racked up 25 catches for 367 yards and seven touchdowns with the help of Houser's arm, and while I think the Buckeyes will prevail, this number is too big for an Illini squad that will be able to move the chains often.
Florida (-3) vs. Ole Miss
After an emotional, draining win over LSU, the Rebels have to go to The Swamp and try to contain Jadan Baugh, arguably the best running back in the country. Kewan Lacy is questionable for Ole Miss, and other defensive pieces are banged up. I think this one comes down to quarterback play - Aaron Philo needs to be a mistake-free game manager and slow the pace of this game down to keep Trinidad Chambliss on the bench as much as possible. I think they achieve that goal.
Mississippi State (-6) vs. Missouri
I am going to stay on the Kamario Taylor hype train, and we'll really find out if Missouri is as good as its 3-0 record. If only the Tigers had Ahmad Hardy - but lefty Austin Simmons has kept them in games so far. I'm already wondering where Taylor will transfer to next year, but in the meantime, he's going to plow through some SEC teams that have too many question marks.
Penn State (-9.5) vs. Wisconsin
I'd be less confident in this line if the Nittany Lions were reading to Madison, but this is a statement game for the Nittany Lions in Happy Valley as they commence their quest to end up in the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers are much improved, but Penn State should win this game comfortably.
Over 62 
USC vs. 
Oregon
I'll be at the Coliseum Saturday night to cheer on this pick. Both of these defenses have shown an inability to close the deal, and the high-octane offenses on both sides will turn this game into a track meet. I think both teams will score 30 points. That's a high number, but Jayden Maiava and Dante Moore will combine to cover it.
Last Week: 1-4
This season: 5-10
