2026 Pirelli Italian Grand Prix
Location: Monza, Italy
Course: Autodromo Nazionale di Monza
Course Length: 5.79km
Laps: 53
Italian Grand Prix Race Preview
McLaren has made significant upgrades as the season has progressed, and it's shown in the last few races. Lando Norris has taken home comfortable consecutive wins, which has been enough to at least bring him into the conversation for the Drivers' Championship. He sits in fourth place and 83 points behind Kimi Antonelli. Monza will present a significant test as to whether he and the team can keep their momentum.
Kimi Antonelli didn't win the sprint or the grand prix, but he still matched teammate George Russell in overall points for the weekend. That's a good outcome for him given the cushion he currently has for the lead in the Drivers' Championship.
Key Stats at Monza
- Races: 80
- Winners from pole: 27
- Winners from top-5 starters: 68
- Winners from top-10 starters: 79
Previous 10 Monza Winners
2025- Max Verstappen
2024- Charles Leclerc
2023- Max Verstappen
2022- Max Verstappen
2021 - Daniel Ricciardo
2020 - Pierre Gasly
2019 - Charles Leclerc
2018 - Lewis Hamilton
2017 - Lewis Hamilton
2016 - Nico Rosberg
Monza is one of the fastest laps on the calendar, earning its nickname as the "Temple of Speed." It's also one of the more traditional F1 tracks remaining on the calendar, with the venue hosting races nearly continuously from 1950 to the present. There have been some recent modifications to the track, as the entire circuit was repaved ahead of the 2024 edition of the race. A gravel trap has been reinstalled and removed at the chicane, and that area is expected to be just asphalt in 2026. The kerbs in the first few turns have also been modified a few times in the last several years, so it will be worth watching their appearance during the first free practice session.
Once again, drivers will have the C3, C4 and C5 tires, the softest possible combination available. This is typically a one-stop race, though the new engine and rules package has changed traditional strategies at other tracks this season.
RotoWire Formula 1 DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Italian Grand Prix
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Lando Norris - $12,400
George Russell - $12,000
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Lewis Hamilton - $11,000
Charles Leclerc - $10,600
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Liam Lawson - $6,600
Pierre Gasly - $5,600
Nico Hulkenberg - $5,400
Yuki Tsunoda - $5,200
Gabriel Bortoleto - $5,000
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Fernando Alonso - $4,600
Esteban Ocon - $4,200
Oliver Bearman -$4,000
Constructor Values
Ferrari – 13,300
McLaren - $11,300
Racing Bulls - $4,000
Audi - $3,300
Optimal DraftKings Lineup for the Italian Grand Prix
Captain - Charles Leclerc - $15,900
Pierre Gasly - $5,600
Nico Hulkenberg - $5,400
Yuki Tsunoda - $5,200
Fernando Alonso - $4,600
Constructor – Ferrari - $13,300
There remains very little differentiating Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren on a weekly basis, which has increased the importance of qualifying. That's particularly true at Monza, where passes are difficult and limited primarily to only very specific areas of the track. However, this weekend could set up well for Ferrari. Antonelli will face a penalty for going over the limit of engine components after modifications to the car, meaning he will start at or toward the back of the grid. That knocks both he and Mercedes out of the conversation to be rostered this weekend. However, it does boost Russell, as he should certainly outperform Anotnelli while also giving hi much increase chances of a win.
The lineup above assumes Ferrari will have a strong qualifying weekend, but there will have to be modifications if McLaren or Mercedes have the better starting positions. As is often the case, it will be necessary to pay down at either Captain or Constructor. There are currently easier candidates to identify at Constructor, with Racing Bulls or Audi the likeliest choices. Both would pair well with a George Russell build as Captain.
There aren't many intriguing true punt plays, but the midfield is stacked with potential options. Fernando Alonso is very likely to be the top value. He's tallied points in the two races since Aston Martin introduced it's revamped car, and he's one of the safest bets to beat his teammate. One of the two Audi drivers is very likely to be a key player in the midfield, with Hulkenberg the option in the sample lineup due to his recent form. Pierre Gasly is a mainstay in lineups this year and is regularly the top midfield driver. Finally, Tsunoda had an impressive 2026 debut last weekend and remains $1,000 cheaper than his teammate.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Italian Grand Prix
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:00 PM ET Friday
Race Winner – Charles Leclerc (+300), Lewis Hamilton (+300), Lando Norris (+550)
Podium Finish – Charles Leclerc (-225), Lewis Hamilton (-225)
Double-Podium Finish – Ferrari (+105)
Much of the logic of the betting picks comes from the knowledge that Kimi Antonelli is very unlikely to contend for a win or even a podium finish. That leaves McLaren and Ferrari as the favorites. McLaren and Norris in particular are both priced that way, but there is more value available with Ferrari and each of its drivers. Leclerc is my favorite driver, though he and Hamilton have similar odds across the board.
Russell has an opportunity to gain some ground on Antonelli this weekend and is the favorite to win the race. His very aggressive price is enough for me to shy away while taking the relative value with Norris, Hamilton or Leclerc.
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