Payne's Perspective: Analyzing the Big Moves

With the flurry of activity that happened in the NFL last week, it seems like a good time to look at the moves and assess the impact for fantasy value. Here are the majority of the moves made and how I think they'll be valued from a fantasy perspective compared to last season:

•LeSean McCoy is traded to Buffalo and signs a five-year extension; Percy Harvin signs a one-year deal.

At quick glance, moving from Chip Kelley's offense to Buffalo would seem to hurt Shady's value. However, coming off a monster season in 2013 McCoy didn't surpass 1,500 yards from scrimmage and only scored five touchdowns. He's already said Rex Ryan has promised him 25 carries (he probably meant touches) per game, and the Bills figure to be a "ground and pound" team. While the Bills added Richie Incognito to the offensive line, it remains to be seen what else they do to bolster what was a suspect unit between now and Week 1. McCoy should easily eclipse his five touchdowns from last year and surpass his 28 catches. As far as Harvin goes, it's a nice gamble by the Bills without investing too much. Rex Ryan must have seen something he liked in Harvin, and his presence will help keep opposing defenses honest and let Sammy Watkins work more against one-on-one coverage. Of course, it could be just a matter of time before Harvin is hurt or concussed.

Verdict: This is a pretty lateral move for McCoy who will be the workhorse and the focal point of the offense. It's tough to imagine a scenario where Harvin becomes a fantasy stud given who the Bills will likely have at quarterback. Look for Harvin to have the occasional stellar fantasy performance albeit sandwiched in between a few duds.

• The Philadelphia Eagles sign DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews.

This is an interesting tandem of running backs given that many are wary of Murray coming off a huge workload and, of course, Ryan Mathews can never stay healthy. The Eagles' offensive line is not as good as the Cowboys, and there's a history of big offensive seasons by running backs followed by a disappointing one. It's difficult to imagine Murray gets more than 2,200 yards from scrimmage, even in the Chip Kelly offense, and the 13 touchdowns will be difficult to match as well. Mathews is going to get his share of touches, and Darren Sproles remains there to reprise his role as the pass-catching running back.

Verdict: This is a slight hit to Murray's value given the difference in the offensive lines. This is a bigger hit to Mathews' value, who will need a Murray injury to be anything more than a flex option in most standard leagues.

•Darren McFadden signs with the Dallas Cowboys. Lance Dunbar and Joseph Randle should get as much of an opportunity as DMC, who hasn't averaged more than 3.5 yards per carry in any of the last three seasons. The upgrade in the offensive line is a big plus, but McFadden hasn't looked like the explosive running back he once was in years. Chances are Randle and/or Dunbar will be a better fantasy option short of the Cowboys coming out and proclaiming McFadden as their workhorse. Even then, it's tough to imagine a scenario where he stays healthy the whole season carrying a full workload.

Verdict: While he should see a slight uptick in value given the offensive line, you won't want to count on him as your second running back or even flex option.

•Andre Johnson and Frank Gore sign with the Indianapolis Colts.

The Johnson signing feels like the Colts found a serviceable replacement for Reggie Wayne, with Johnson being the wily veteran who can be counted on as a possession-type of a receiver. While receivers can fall off a cliff at any point in their 30s, it would seem eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark again and getting more than last year's three touchdowns is within reach playing with Andrew Luck. The Gore signing was intriguing as everyone keeps waiting for him to break down given all of the carries he's had over his career, but that hasn't happened yet. He should surpass 1,000 rushing yards for the fifth straight season and his four rushing touchdowns from a season ago could easily double.

Verdict: A slight bump in fantasy value for both players given what their possible roles could be in this offense. Age and career workloads are concerns, but if they stay healthy each should have no problem matching what they did a season ago.

•Reggie Bush signs with the San Francisco 49ers.

Given his injury history and likely being second fiddle to Carlos Hyde, Bush won't have much of an opportunity to be a significant fantasy asset. He's likely to get used as the change-of-pace back and come in on passing downs. Hyde is a bigger and more physical runner who should handle all of the goal-line work.

Verdict: Bush was already difficult to trust on a weekly basis and will be even more so now. Even if something were to happen to Hyde, it's not a sure thing that Bush would be higher on the depth chart than Kendall Hunter. Consider this a downgrade for a player who already appears to be on the decline.

•Jimmy Graham is traded to the Seattle Seahawks.

I'm pretty sure no one saw this move coming. Graham goes from a pass-happy offense to a run-happy offense and should see fewer targets as a result. The move should force opposing defenses to back off the line of scrimmage, giving Marshawn Lynch more room to run. Of course, Graham could steal looks from Lynch at the goal line, and Graham has never been known as a great blocker. Still, the two in some ways will benefit from the presence of the other, and Russell Wilson has shown no signs of slowing down. It's scary to think he may still have another level he can get to.

Verdict: A small bump down in Graham's value based on the new offense. Lynch's value should stay relatively close to where it where it was, though he may give up a rushing touchdown or two to Graham.

•Mike Wallace is traded to the Vikings while Kenny Stills is traded to the Dolphins.

Wallace had essentially played his way (or lacking of play) out of Miami, and the Dolphins didn't get much in return for him (a fifth-round pick). Wallace should increase the value of Teddy Bridgewater a bit giving him a vertical threat to help open the passing game downfield. Wallace is added to a decent lineup that has emerging Charles Johnson and Kyle Rudolph to a team that could throw a lot if it loses Adrian Peterson. The Stills deal was more of a surprise as he was coming off a season just short of 1,000 yards and was the best downfield threat the Saints had. He'll now assume the role that Wallace had in Miami and will be paired with Ryan Tannehill, who has the arm strength to hit Stills downfield.

Verdict: Wallace probably won't match the 10 touchdowns from last season, though another season of about 1,000 yards should be in play. Stills should get a bump in value as he enters his third season in the league and should surpass 1,000 yards. If Stills gets the red-zone targets Wallace got, he'll see a nice uptick in his value.

•C.J. Spiller signs a four-year deal with the Saints.

Mark Ingram was getting a lot of buzz following the release of Pierre Thomas, and the Spiller signing clouds the backfield situation. Spiller likely will assume the role that Thomas had and primarily be the pass-catching back while Ingram works between the tackles on early downs. Don't underestimate the acquisition of Max Unger from the Seahawks; there should be more running lanes for whoever gets the carries.

Verdict: Ingram's value takes a small hit, and Spiller could be as low as third on the depth chart. He's coming off a disappointing season and could be valuable in PPR formats. It's not certain he'll be second on the depth chart (with Khiry Robinson still on the roster), but if he gets 10-15 touches per game he'll have nice fantasy value.