This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at Week 17:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRONCOS | Chargers | 23.90% | 450 | 81.82% | 4.35 |
| TEXANS | Jaguars | 17.40% | 265 | 72.60% | 4.77 |
| Steelers | BROWNS | 13.00% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 2.21 |
| COLTS | Titans | 10.90% | 250 | 71.43% | 3.11 |
| PANTHERS | Buccaneers | 9.20% | 562.5 | 84.91% | 1.39 |
| Patriots | DOLPHINS | 3.80% | 600 | 85.71% | 0.54 |
| Redskins | COWBOYS | 3.30% | 66.6666 | 40.00% | 1.98 |
| Rams | 49ERS | 3.30% | 170 | 37.04% | 2.08 |
| COWBOYS | Redskins | 2.20% | 150 | 60.00% | 0.88 |
| BENGALS | Ravens | 2.20% | 330 | 76.74% | 0.51 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
It goes without saying the "polling" numbers are incredibly noisy at this point as we're mixing full-season with second-chance and multiple-strike pools, so do some pool-specific research before you make your picks.
Also, while my thoughts on Tuesday might be of some use, you'll have to keep an eye out all week for how coaches intend to play it in Week 17. Only the Redskins have their seed locked up right now, so everyone else either has an incentive to try, or is out of the playoffs and no incentive to rest anyone. But not all incentives are equal, e.g., the Broncos surely want to lock up a bye, while the Seahawks can only be the No. 5 or No. 6 seed.
My Picks:
1. New England Patriots
I know the Patriots are banged up, but as long as Tom
Let's take a look at Week 17:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRONCOS | Chargers | 23.90% | 450 | 81.82% | 4.35 |
| TEXANS | Jaguars | 17.40% | 265 | 72.60% | 4.77 |
| Steelers | BROWNS | 13.00% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 2.21 |
| COLTS | Titans | 10.90% | 250 | 71.43% | 3.11 |
| PANTHERS | Buccaneers | 9.20% | 562.5 | 84.91% | 1.39 |
| Patriots | DOLPHINS | 3.80% | 600 | 85.71% | 0.54 |
| Redskins | COWBOYS | 3.30% | 66.6666 | 40.00% | 1.98 |
| Rams | 49ERS | 3.30% | 170 | 37.04% | 2.08 |
| COWBOYS | Redskins | 2.20% | 150 | 60.00% | 0.88 |
| BENGALS | Ravens | 2.20% | 330 | 76.74% | 0.51 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
It goes without saying the "polling" numbers are incredibly noisy at this point as we're mixing full-season with second-chance and multiple-strike pools, so do some pool-specific research before you make your picks.
Also, while my thoughts on Tuesday might be of some use, you'll have to keep an eye out all week for how coaches intend to play it in Week 17. Only the Redskins have their seed locked up right now, so everyone else either has an incentive to try, or is out of the playoffs and no incentive to rest anyone. But not all incentives are equal, e.g., the Broncos surely want to lock up a bye, while the Seahawks can only be the No. 5 or No. 6 seed.
My Picks:
1. New England Patriots
I know the Patriots are banged up, but as long as Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are healthy, and the No. 1 seed is at stake, they'll take it to a talented, but terrible Dolphins team. I give the Patriots an 87 percent chance to win this game.
2. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers got their loss out of the way, and now they get a weak Buccaneers defense at home as they play for the No. 1 overall seed. I give them an 85 percent chance to win this game.
3. Denver Broncos
Brock Osweiler looked good on Monday night, and while the Chargers have played better of late, it wasn't against the Denver defense against whom they managed three points last time out. With the Broncos playing for the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye, I give them an 81 percent chance to win this game.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers laid an egg on the road against the division-rival Ravens last week, but the Ravens are well coached and know how to defend Ben Roethlisberger. The Browns, not so much. I give the Steelers a 79-percent chance to win this game.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have a shot at a bye, but the Patriots or Broncos would have to lose, and both are heavily favored. Still, at home against a weak Ravens team, I give them a 75 percent chance to win this game.
6. Arizona Cardinals
You wouldn't think they'd be this high against the Seahawks, but Seattle has almost nothing for which to play because it's locked into a five or six seed no matter what. I give the Cardinals a 64 percent chance to win this game.
7. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs don't have much for which to play - they could move up to a No. 3 seed if Denver loses (which is unlikely), but can't get a bye - and they face a decent Raiders squad that's likely to show up. I give the Chiefs a 64 percent chance to win this game.
8. Houston Texans
It's unclear whether Brian Hoyer will play this week which could mean another start for Brandon Weeden. Weeden played well against the Titans, but Blake Bortles and his many receiving weapons could easily keep up. I give the Texans a 62 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omission:
Indianapolis Colts - The Colts are six-point favorites over the Titans, but Josh Freeman, Ryan Lindley or Stephen Morris, with minimal practice time, is likely to start for Indy.
