Payne's Perspective: Talkin' Football

-----Original Message-----
From: "kcpayne26"
To:Mario@Rotowire.com
Sent: Saturday, April 9, 2016 2:17pm
Subject: Offseason NFL

Hey Mario -- I thought this would be a good time to check in with you, being it the period between the Combine and the draft. There are a lot of different topics I wanted to get your take on and hopefully we'll get to all of them. First, we'll start with college DFS. I know you're not shy in your opinions pertaining to politics, society, NCAA or your take on players. What was your reaction to the shutdown of NCAA DFS? One of the added benefits of DFS for me personally was getting to know a lot of these players before they get to the Combine or draft. I was partial to the Draftkings format where there's an added bonus for yardage, and it's PPR. What's your overall thinking on this draft class? I find myself wanting to talk people into paying more attention to the second-year players in the NFL and largely ignoring this rookie class. I see a lot of projects but few players I think will make an immediate impact. This could be a really long thread considering everything I want to discuss.

-----Original Message-----
From: mario
To: kcpayne26
Sent: Mon, Apr 11, 2016 10:36 am
Subject: RE: Offseason NFL

Hey Kevin, thanks for striking this up again this year!

College DFS getting the axe is for sure a bummer, but it wasn't unexpected. More importantly, it's the obviously right move for the DFS industry to make this concession. The gambling laws in this country are, of course, incoherent and largely hypocritical, so any moral argument against college DFS is unlikely to resonate with me, but from an industry practicality standpoint it was a no-brainer to surrender that particular hill. With that said, I am optimistic that it might make a comeback in five years or so. The NCAA has no true principles aside from its hostile feeling of entitlement to the free labor of its athletes, and the money resulting from it. Any value-based stance it takes is one I categorically consider insincere -- money is the only true value in this instance.

Meanwhile, DFS clearly increases the visibility of and demand for lower-tier matchups in any given week -- I obsessively followed games like Rutgers vs. Maryland, Tulsa vs. Florida Atlantic and Idaho vs. Ohio due to my DFS interests -- so I think the NCAA might eventually take up an internal DFS policy of "oppose publicly, profit privately." In other words, while they'll never stop pretending to get red and angry at the idea of DFS, I think the NCAA might eventually keep quiet on legislative fronts so that NCAA DFS can return. They would still pretend to be indignant in that scenario, but they'd be making more money, too.

With DFS in general gaining legal legitimacy as time passes, the faucet of cash will run steadily in an arena that clearly draws a feverish amount of demand in the U.S. I have trouble imagining an entity as cynical as the NCAA will be able to watch that ever-bloating cash cow and sit entirely on the sidelines, especially as the wealth-stratifying gears of capitalism grind onward and the turnips yield less and less blood.

But enough of that, the draft is only three weeks away! I tend to find every draft class fascinating in its own way, but I understand why it doesn't come across as a high-impact talent pool. It's safe to say that there isn't a lot of superstar potential at the QB/RB/WR/TE positions, but there are a handful of novel prospects, and at the very least I think this class has plenty of prospects who project well as role-specific contributors.

Notre Dame wideout Will Fuller is my favorite example of this -- a lot of people in the draft community don't like Fuller -- some metrics people are squeamish about Fuller's lack of size (6-foot, 186 pounds), while film scouts get downright ill over the number of drops Fuller had on film. I, on the other hand, could hardly be a bigger fan. Fuller's per-target production in college was incredible, and 29 touchdowns in 26 games is enough reason for me to scoff at the Ted Ginn comparisons that are so popular. Even if he drops passes more than the average, Fuller's output per target is so much higher than the average that it simply doesn't matter. He's one of the most polarizing prospects of recent memory, but I think Fuller will be the NFL equivalent of the three-point specialist who threatens to drain 30 on any given night, or a shutdown closer in baseball.

Although this draft has more role-specific contributors than blue-chip workhorse types, there are still a handful of guys who I think have clear All-Pro upside in the NFL. Ezekiel Elliott is one of the best running back prospects going back decades, and I think Derrick Henry will be highly successful at running back, too. At receiver, Josh Doctson and Corey Coleman are just about locks to see multiple Pro Bowls in my estimation. Do any of this year's rookies in particular have your eye at the moment? What about those second-year guys?

-----Original Message-----
From: "kcpayne26"
To:mario@rotowire.com
Sent: Tuesday, April 12, 2016 8:31am
Subject: Re: Offseason NFL

Two second-year guys who are going to my radar are Breshad Perriman and Kevin White. There isn't a ton of talent in Baltimore and it appears that Perriman is the guy they want to take over the No. 1 wide receiver role, IF he's healthy. That's obviously a big "if" and I've seen recent reports that he's still not 100 percent, which is very concerning considering he's didn't play a single down last season.

White falls into a similar category considering he had a similar rookie season, but this was the guy they brought in to fill the Brandon Marshall void. He's going to see single/weaker coverage all game playing across from Alshon Jeffery, and we may see Cutler sling the ball a lot with a young, unproven backfield behind him. DeVante Parker is going to be the trendiest year-two player in my opinion, and one of the greatest stories I read last season was about him going back and watching old film of himself to remind him how good he can be. But this is a guy who had at least 80 receiving yards in four of his last six games and fantasy pundits likely will be quick to pro-rate those numbers to show the type of upside that he has. A big wide receiver such as himself paired with Jarvis Landry gives Miami a nice pair of young, upside receivers to go with Jordan Cameron at tight end.

I agree on Elliott, I'll probably be in on the bidding for him, though I'm a little more skeptical of Derrick Henry. I'm a bit worried that the speed of NFL defenses will counter the big size advantage he has and he'll be the short yardage/goal-line back in some sort of RBBC. Of course, the same could happen of Elliott, not that he'll be labeled the short yardage/goal-line back but that he'll be in some sort of timeshare rather than get 20-plus touches per game.

I agree on Doctson and Coleman too; they should make an immediate impact and rostering them for college DFS paid of handsomely the last few seasons. A notable omission I didn't see you mention was Laquon Treadwell. He didn't run the greatest 40 time at his Pro Day (4.63), but do we put too much stock into those numbers (DeAndre Hopkins ran a 4.57 and he's been "OK" since coming into the league)? Am I the only one who thinks they should be running with a helmet and pads on when they get timed? Treadwell seems to be a polarizing player heading into the draft as I think people will either be on the bandwagon or staying far away from it. Where do you see him going in this draft? Late first round? Early second?

-----Original Message-----
From: mario
To: kcpayne26
Sent: Thu, Apr 14, 2016 8:36 am
Subject: Re: Offseason NFL

I think there's good reason for optimism with Kevin White this year, if only for the reasons you already stated. Jeffery will indeed be the primary focus of defenses, but the departure of Martellus Bennett ensures the probability that White sees a big target count even if he's clearly behind Jeffery in the order. I'm more squeamish on Perriman -- I don't buy for a second that Steve Smith will play more than a handful of games this year, but I think Mike Wallace and Kamar Aiken could prove problematic for Perriman, a player with questionable health and a year on the shelf after arriving to the NFL in need of polish. I also highly doubt the accuracy of his 40-yard dash from the UCF pro day. To me, anything less than a lower-tier WR2 season from White would be a disappointment, while Perriman is mostly just a lottery ticket.

Parker is a player I'm quite high on in prospect terms, but I think his current ADP is a bit inflated. I preferred him over White last year, so I'm confident Parker is no flash in the pan, but the last half of the 2015 season was pretty much entirely garbage time in Miami. Anything in particular that happened there, especially in the last month, is liable to contain a fair amount of noise. I view Parker as a boom-or-bust WR2 type with a WR3 floor, but I'm not ready to make that investment when he's going as high as the late second round in MFL10s.

I understand the concern with Derrick Henry, but I'm completely at ease about him. A 4.54 40-yard dash is adequate for a runner around 210 or so pounds, so for Henry to post that figure at 247 has me excited, especially when you pair that consideration with his exceptional college production. Honestly, if the critics of Henry are correct, I think he'd be a complete burnout rather than a short-yardage specialist. The critic's view of Henry is that he is too slow to start, so if that's his downfall he probably wouldn't be very effective in short-yardage scenarios. But really, I think Brandon Jacobs gives us the perfect case study to examine whether Henry's perceived flaws will manifest in NFL failure. Whatever concern there is with Henry would be applied even more so to Jacobs, yet Jacobs was quite good at his physical peak, even if people don't remember. Whatever slowness or stiffness might have inflicted Jacobs was greater than in Henry's case, so I think Henry is golden. I think any timeshare he ends up in would be due to landing spot rather than a botched opportunity on Henry's part. You have nothing to worry about with Zeke, in any case. He's going to feast.

While I'm obviously a huge fan of Coleman and Doctson, I still like Treadwell a lot. I just think he's a bigger Jarvis Landry -- a guy whose real-life football value is greater than his fantasy football value. He's one of the most aggressive blockers you'll see and he excels at "WR stuff," showing good route-running skills and unusual start/stop ability for someone over 220 pounds, so I have no concern over his floor. I just don't think he can match the upside of Coleman and Doctson. Coleman and Doctson get "A" grades for production, film and workout metrics, whereas I view Treadwell as a B+, A and C- in the same respective fields. I projected Treadwell to DeAndre Hopkins and the Texans at the 22nd pick in my most recent mock, funny enough. I was higher on Hopkins in his draft than I am for Treadwell, for what it's worth, as I viewed Hopkins as a top-10 sort of talent at the time, whereas Treadwell is more of a 15-23 player to me.

If you're looking for some under-the-radar WRs in this class to take a look at, I'd recommend Keyarris Garrett from Tulsa, Chris Moore from Cincinnati and Marquez North from Tennessee. Garrett suffered a compound leg fracture in 2013 -- an injury that effectively ends most careers of those who suffer it -- yet he led the nation in receiving yards in 2015. I'm convinced there's something special about him. Moore is a deep threat who's every bit as accomplished as Devin Smith was a year ago, and North is a big former blue chip recruit who looked like a potential first-round pick as a freshman in 2013, only to see injuries derail his 2014 and 2015 seasons.

-----Original Message-----
From: "kcpayne26"
To: mario@rotowire.com
Sent: Friday, April 15, 2016 8:01am
Subject: Re: Offseason NFL

I'm glad we disagree about something -- Derrick Henry -- though I think I should clarify and say that I think someone in the room will be willing to spend more dollars or a higher pick to get him than me. I just won't be aggressive enough to actually get him, though where he lands and his role could change that opinion for me. Since I sent my last email the other day the news broke the Los Angeles, not St. Louis (I'm going to screw that up countless times this year), will have the No. 1 pick in the draft, which all but means they'll be taking Jared Goff, Carson Wentz or Paxton Lynch with that pick. I believe I have the order correct based on what I've read, do you agree with that? Who would you take if you were the Rams' GM?

I'm kind of enamored with Wentz , though admittedly I've just watched film of him over the last month. The size, arm strength and accuracy all pass the eye test for me, and I'm not as concerned as most about the level he played at during college. While I think he's talented, I thought Goff posted big numbers due to the system he was in, and Lynch was a pleasant surprise this season but he probably shouldn't have been considering his pedigree.

I also wanted to ask about Moritz ("Carlton", my super un-clever nickname for him, better than "crackers" though) Boehringer, the big German wide receiver. If I wasn't following you on Twitter (@NFLDraft_RW) I would have no clue who he was, and I think he should be on every fantasy player's radar. Does this guy have the ability to make an immediate impact and where do you see him going in this draft, if at all?

-----Original Message-----
From: mario
To: kcpayne26
Sent: Fri, Apr 15, 2016 5:54 pm
Subject: Re: Offseason NFL

Yeah, that trade is really something. The fact that the Rams didn't even know which quarterback they wanted prior to making that trade is amazing to me. If you haven't decided which of those two quarterbacks is best, how can convince yourself either was worth the pick? Surely, if there is some aspect of their evaluation that was inconclusive, the point of conclusiveness could reveal previously unnoticed flaws in either or both players.

I think Goff makes the most sense for the Rams front office, as he's more likely to contribute early on in his career. I'm not sure Jeff Fisher and Les Snead have enough job security to let Wentz develop sufficiently before throwing him out there. With that said, I shouldn't presume the Rams are capable of behaving in a way that serves their own interests. I'm convinced no other team posed a credible threat of trading up to the first pick -- the often-cited possibility of Philadelphia trading up just did not make sense after it threw so much money at Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel. I'd say the Rams panicked when they made that trade, but it's just as possible that they were completely calm and just did something stupid for no reason.

I should mention quickly that Lynch isn't in the running for the top pick -- it's definitely Goff versus Wentz. I happen to like Lynch's chances of going 19th overall to your team, actually. If you're a Titans fan you have to be thrilled right now, of course. They have enough trade ammo at this point to trade back up for Laremy Tunsil if they really want to. Marcus Mariota looks like a star, and with their new picks the Titans should be able to surround him with a promising supporting cast.

The Boehringer question is fascinating, and one I can't presume to have an answer to. In terms of size and athleticism he's in Martavis Bryant/Jeff Janis territory, but there's no precedent by which we can gauge the meaning of what he's done in Germany to this point. Still, his athleticism is truly, truly rare, and I think he could go as high as the late fourth round in a draft short on both size and speed.

Thanks to Mario for doing this, and be sure to check out his NFL mock draft here.