Survivor: Surviving Week 13

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Updated on November 30, 2016 9:39AM EST

Last week, just about every big favorite got through except the 1.6-percent-owned Seahawks, so your pools are largely intact from Week 12.

Let's take a look at this week's slate:

Team	Opponent	%Taken*	Vegas ML**	Vegas Odds	Expected Loss	Total losses	Remaining	Equity	Equity*Win%
Broncos	JAGUARS	20.40%	220	68.75%	6.38	21.95	78.05	12.81	8.81
PATRIOTS	Rams	17.30%	750	88.24%	2.04	26.29	73.71	13.57	11.97
PACKERS	Texans	15.70%	240	70.59%	4.62	23.70	76.30	13.11	9.25
SEAHAWKS	Panthers	11.30%	275	73.33%	3.01	25.31	74.69	13.39	9.82
SAINTS	Lions	10.40%	220	68.75%	3.25	25.07	74.93	13.35	9.18
RAIDERS	Bills	9.60%	160	61.54%	3.69	24.63	75.37	13.27	8.16
STEELERS	Giants	3.30%	240	70.59%	0.97	27.35	72.65	13.76	9.72
CHARGERS	Buccaneers	2.70%	195	66.10%	0.92	27.41	72.59	13.78	9.11
FALCONS	Chiefs	2.70%	175	63.64%	0.98	27.34	72.66	13.76	8.76
Cowboys	VIKINGS	2.40%	170	62.96%	0.89	27.43	72.57	13.78	8.68
BEARS	49ers	1.10%	135	57.45%	0.47	27.85	72.15	13.86	7.96
RAVENS	Dolphins	1.00%	175	63.64%	0.36	27.96	72.04	13.88	8.83
Colts	JETS	0.60%	110	52.38%	0.29	28.04	71.96	13.90	7.28
Eagles	BENGALS	0.40%	115	53.49%	0.19	28.13	71.87	13.91	7.44
49ers	BEARS	0.30%	74	42.53%	0.17	28.15	71.85	13.92	5.92
JETS	Colts	0.20%	91	47.64%	0.10	28.22	71.78	13.93	6.64
Redskins	CARDINALS	0.10%	77	43.50%	0.06	28.26	71.74	13.94	6.06
CARDINALS	Redskins	0.10%	130	56.52%	0.04	28.28	71.72	13.94	7.88
Buccaneers	CHARGERS	0.10%	51.3	33.91%	0.07	28.25	71.75	13.94	4.73

Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two

Last week, just about every big favorite got through except the 1.6-percent-owned Seahawks, so your pools are largely intact from Week 12.

Let's take a look at this week's slate:

Team	Opponent	%Taken*	Vegas ML**	Vegas Odds	Expected Loss	Total losses	Remaining	Equity	Equity*Win%
Broncos	JAGUARS	20.40%	220	68.75%	6.38	21.95	78.05	12.81	8.81
PATRIOTS	Rams	17.30%	750	88.24%	2.04	26.29	73.71	13.57	11.97
PACKERS	Texans	15.70%	240	70.59%	4.62	23.70	76.30	13.11	9.25
SEAHAWKS	Panthers	11.30%	275	73.33%	3.01	25.31	74.69	13.39	9.82
SAINTS	Lions	10.40%	220	68.75%	3.25	25.07	74.93	13.35	9.18
RAIDERS	Bills	9.60%	160	61.54%	3.69	24.63	75.37	13.27	8.16
STEELERS	Giants	3.30%	240	70.59%	0.97	27.35	72.65	13.76	9.72
CHARGERS	Buccaneers	2.70%	195	66.10%	0.92	27.41	72.59	13.78	9.11
FALCONS	Chiefs	2.70%	175	63.64%	0.98	27.34	72.66	13.76	8.76
Cowboys	VIKINGS	2.40%	170	62.96%	0.89	27.43	72.57	13.78	8.68
BEARS	49ers	1.10%	135	57.45%	0.47	27.85	72.15	13.86	7.96
RAVENS	Dolphins	1.00%	175	63.64%	0.36	27.96	72.04	13.88	8.83
Colts	JETS	0.60%	110	52.38%	0.29	28.04	71.96	13.90	7.28
Eagles	BENGALS	0.40%	115	53.49%	0.19	28.13	71.87	13.91	7.44
49ers	BEARS	0.30%	74	42.53%	0.17	28.15	71.85	13.92	5.92
JETS	Colts	0.20%	91	47.64%	0.10	28.22	71.78	13.93	6.64
Redskins	CARDINALS	0.10%	77	43.50%	0.06	28.26	71.74	13.94	6.06
CARDINALS	Redskins	0.10%	130	56.52%	0.04	28.28	71.72	13.94	7.88
Buccaneers	CHARGERS	0.10%	51.3	33.91%	0.07	28.25	71.75	13.94	4.73

Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines

As is so often the case, the Patriots are far and away the top choice according to Vegas and the ownership polls. Keep in mind this far into the year, however, polls are pretty noisy, so you're better off looking at who in your pool has what teams available and making an educated guess.

My Picks

1. New England Patriots

I don't have to tell you why the Patriots are a good bet to beat the Rams at home. They're also likely to be very low owned. I give them a 90 percent chance to win this game.

2. Seattle Seahawks

They looked bad in Tampa last week, but at home against a Panthers team that has little for which to play, I think Seattle will roll. I give the Seahawks a 79 percent chance to win this game.

3. Green Bay Packers

This should be a good matchup for the Packers - a team with a good defense, but terrible offense at home. I'd expect Aaron Rodgers to build on last week's strong game, and the Packers shaky defense to hold up against Brock Osweiler. I give Green Bay a 73 percent chance to win this game.

4. New Orleans Saints

The Lions are a first-place team, but they've been trailing in every game during the fourth quarter, and their pass defense is poor, a recipe for disaster against the Saints in the dome. I give the Saints a 71 percent chance to win this game.

5. Denver Broncos

I don't love the setup here - the Broncos are traveling across the country after playing a physical Sunday night game that went to overtime. But the Jaguars offense has struggled all year, and Denver's defense is nearly impossible to throw on. I give the Broncos a 67 percent chance to win this game.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are much better at home, and while they face a Giants team with talent on both sides of the ball, New York's offensive playcalling has been poor this year with too many short throws and ineffective runs. If the Giants aren't aggressive early, the Steelers could get a lead it's hard to surmount. I give Pittsburgh a 66 percent chance to win this game.

Notable Omissions:

Oakland Raiders - They strike me as a smoke-and-mirrors team, and the Bills, especially with Sammy Watkins back - are good.

San Diego Chargers - I'm not buying in fully on the Bucs just yet, but that they beat the Chiefs and Seahawks in consecutive weeks has to count for something.

Dallas Cowboys - They're a great team, but on the road against a top defense is the type of game even great teams lose occasionally.

Atlanta Falcons - They're rightly favored at home, but the Chiefs should move the ball on them, and Kansas City has playmakers on defense and special teams.

Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens are usually tougher at home, but the Dolphins have won six in a row and are roughly equal to the Ravens.