This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | BROWNS | 34.8% | 245 | 71.01% | 10.09 |
| COWBOYS | Lions | 11.6% | 300 | 75.00% | 2.90 |
| Titans | JAGUARS | 11.5% | 210 | 67.74% | 3.71 |
| PATRIOTS | Jets | 8.9% | 1350 | 93.10% | 0.61 |
| PACKERS | Vikings | 8.2% | 275 | 73.33% | 2.19 |
| RAIDERS | Colts | 6.9% | 180 | 64.29% | 2.46 |
| SEAHAWKS | Cardinals | 5.1% | 375 | 78.95% | 1.07 |
| Redskins | BEARS | 2.7% | 150 | 60.00% | 1.08 |
| RAMS | 49ers | 2.4% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.89 |
| CHIEFS | Broncos | 1.8% | 210 | 67.74% | 0.58 |
| STEELERS | Ravens | 1.7% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.53 |
| Giants | EAGLES | 1.7% | 135 | 57.45% | 0.72 |
| BILLS | Dolphins | 0.7% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.26 |
| SAINTS | Buccaneers | 0.5% | 145 | 59.18% | 0.20 |
| TEXANS | Bengals | 0.3% | 120 | 54.55% | 0.14 |
| Falcons | PANTHERS | 0.3% | 175 | 63.64% | 0.11 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Patriots are, as usual, the overwhelming easy call if by some miracle they're still available to you. Otherwise, it's a closer call.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
I'm pretty sure I don't have to explain this one. I give the Patriots a 93 percent chance to win this game.
2. Dallas Cowboys
I'm not a believer in the Lions, and to beat the Cowboys you need a good defense and the ability to strike for a big play. The Lions have neither. I give the Cowboys
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | BROWNS | 34.8% | 245 | 71.01% | 10.09 |
| COWBOYS | Lions | 11.6% | 300 | 75.00% | 2.90 |
| Titans | JAGUARS | 11.5% | 210 | 67.74% | 3.71 |
| PATRIOTS | Jets | 8.9% | 1350 | 93.10% | 0.61 |
| PACKERS | Vikings | 8.2% | 275 | 73.33% | 2.19 |
| RAIDERS | Colts | 6.9% | 180 | 64.29% | 2.46 |
| SEAHAWKS | Cardinals | 5.1% | 375 | 78.95% | 1.07 |
| Redskins | BEARS | 2.7% | 150 | 60.00% | 1.08 |
| RAMS | 49ers | 2.4% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.89 |
| CHIEFS | Broncos | 1.8% | 210 | 67.74% | 0.58 |
| STEELERS | Ravens | 1.7% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.53 |
| Giants | EAGLES | 1.7% | 135 | 57.45% | 0.72 |
| BILLS | Dolphins | 0.7% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.26 |
| SAINTS | Buccaneers | 0.5% | 145 | 59.18% | 0.20 |
| TEXANS | Bengals | 0.3% | 120 | 54.55% | 0.14 |
| Falcons | PANTHERS | 0.3% | 175 | 63.64% | 0.11 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Patriots are, as usual, the overwhelming easy call if by some miracle they're still available to you. Otherwise, it's a closer call.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
I'm pretty sure I don't have to explain this one. I give the Patriots a 93 percent chance to win this game.
2. Dallas Cowboys
I'm not a believer in the Lions, and to beat the Cowboys you need a good defense and the ability to strike for a big play. The Lions have neither. I give the Cowboys a 79 percent chance to win this game.
3. Seattle Seahawks
The Cardinals play them tough, and they know the Seahawks well. But Russell Wilson is healthy again as is Tyler Lockett, Doug Baldwin, Thomas Rawls and Jimmy Graham. In Seattle, I think they take it to Carson Palmer and roll. I give the Seahawks a 77 percent chance to win this game.
4. Green Bay Packers
The Vikings know the Packers well and play good defense, but they're falling apart and don't have the personnel to exploit Green Bay's weakness in pass defense. I give the Packers a 75 percent chance to win this game.
5. Los Angeles Rams
Sometimes it's not about who you're picking, but whom you're picking against. The 49ers blew out the Rams at home in Week 1. I expect the opposite to happen in Los Angeles, as the Rams defense is the only credible unit on the field. I give the Rams a 70 percent chance to win this game.
6. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders make me nervous as they seem to win with smoke and mirrors half the time, but at home against a weak Colts defense and with a pass rush that can get to Andrew Luck, I think they'll get it done. I give the Raiders a 66 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Tennessee Titans - I don't trust their defense, especially on the road, and the firing of Gus Bradley can only be a good thing for Jacksonville.
San Diego Chargers - I'd give them a better chance to win than the Raiders for sure, and maybe even the Rams, but they're the highest owned team on the board and capable of epic failure at the worst possible time.
Pittsburgh Steelers - I don't want any part of this rivalry.
Buffalo Bills - The Dolphins destroyed them the first time around, and while Matt Moore is the QB, Miami has been a decent team in the second half.
Kansas City Chiefs - If the Chiefs get a special teams or defensive TD, they'll probably win, but barring that, this game is 50/50.
New York Giants - I want no part of this - road game on a short week. Plus the Eagles are much tougher at home.
