Camp Thoughts: Bryant Setback

• While Terrance West's stock is unambiguously on the rise in light of Kenneth Dixon's season-ending meniscus tear, I can't help but wonder if the Baltimore running back rotation remains more fluid than one might guess at a glance.

West's distinction as the top pure running back on the team feels like a by-default situation, because he's been well below the average as an NFL running back to this point. Even last season, which was the best of West's four-year career, he finished with just 774 yards on 193 carries – a rushing average of 4.0 YPC. The output almost perfectly mirrored West's rookie season, when he ran for 673 yards on 171 carries (3.9 YPC). He wasn't on the Browns roster by Week 1 of the next year; traded to the Tennessee Titans, who cut him after the second week.

West's falling out in Cleveland and Tennessee had something to do with weight issues, and there's no indication that's an issue at this point. Yet, the results weren't distinguishable.

I'll nonetheless target West in drafts if he falls far enough – I'd take him over the likes of Frank Gore and Rob Kelley – but I'll be conscious of the need for more depth afterward. Former fourth-round pick Javorius Allen, who is more athletically gifted than West and possesses more pass-catching skills, is still on the roster and could see the field if West's production is too plodding. Another former fourth-round pick, Lorenzo Taliaferro, also looms in the background.

• I'm a big believer in Martavis Bryant, but I didn't realize how high I am on his 2017 prospects until talking it through with Derek on the radio Friday. That Bryant has yet to be fully reinstated from suspension is perhaps the most agonizing development of the past week for me.

At risk of misquoting him somewhat, Derek mentioned his concerns that the suspension-prone Bryant, even if given a 16-game season, might cap out at a line like 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns. Those numbers are roughly the 16-game prorated figures for Bryant's 11-game 2015 season, when he finished with 765 yards and six touchdowns.

I expect much better, however. Bryant was only 23 years old at the time, and at 25 years old – with 15 additional pounds of muscle, moreover – he should be a more skilled player than he was then. Bryant saw 92 targets in those 11 games in 2015, which means a 16-game season now could see him approach 145 targets, especially since the Steelers no longer have a pass-catching threat like Heath Miller at tight end.

If Bryant merely matches the target pace he saw in 2015, I think it would yield between 1,250 and 1,400 yards, with anywhere from 10 to 14 touchdowns. Again, I didn't realize I was quite this high on Bryant. I can't pretend to have any insight on whether Roger Goodell will fully reinstate Bryant at any particular point, but it's safe to say I wish he'd let the immensely talented Bryant back onto the field already.

• Chiefs coach Andy Reid mentioned that Travis Kelce could see his role change somewhat this year, alluding to the possibility of an increase in wide receiver-like tasks. Given Kelce's rare pass-catching skills and the Chiefs' profound lack of wide receiver talent, Kelce running more routes in 2017 was something that always made obvious sense. That Reid all but acknowledges a similar thinking makes it seem not only sensible, but perhaps even likely.

If Kelce really is used more like a receiver than in past years, it would likely result in a target increase both inside and outside of the red zones, and could also result in a higher depth of target average. If Kelce could post 1,125 yards and four touchdowns on 117 targets last year, what might he do if he saw that figure rise to something like 140 targets? The Chiefs would be smart to find out after Kelce posted 100-plus yard efforts in five of the final seven weeks last year.

Kelce's ADP was already quite high – his recent ADP on MyFantasyLeague.com rests at 28.68, and Reid's comments could push him up toward the second round. I probably won't be buying Kelce if it takes a second-round pick to do it, but the GPP logic is tempting at least in the classic MFL10 format.

• The Indianapolis Star, while not offering a direct quote, paraphrased Andrew Luck as saying that he is not able to guarantee his availability for Week 1. We may see the Indianapolis front office push back against the article soon – the Colts have always insisted that Luck would be ready for Week 1 following his January surgery to repair a torn shoulder labrum – but even an optimistic reading of Luck's comments raise at least slight concern.

In a previous offseason article I detailed why Luck's situation had me uneasy, both regarding him and dependent players like T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief:

Luck has yet to resume throwing at all, which disturbs me given the fact that initial reports said Luck would be unable to throw for just three months. We're approaching six. The Colts never did offer a concrete prognosis following the procedure, instead leaning on a somewhat cryptic theme of Luck being ready for Week 1. That would be nearly eight months after the surgery, for an injury that generally cites a six-month recovery time.

While I expect Luck to step onto the field in Week 1, I'm worried he'll do so in a compromised state that leaves him both less effective and vulnerable to further injury. If he's at all less than himself, that leaves the Colts with a trash projection.

The same thoughts apply now, only I'm more pessimistic. I'm staying even further away from Luck, Hilton, and Moncrief at this point.