NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 4

NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 4

This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.

Chicago (+7) at Green Bay, 45.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EDT

The Story: Expect a sloppy affair in this one, as both teams played grueling games in Week 3 and now face a short turnaround. I don't mean to jinx anyone, but that short week could also pose problems for players like Jordan Howard and Jordy Nelson, who have been nursing injuries through the early part of the schedule. The Bears somehow won Sunday despite Mike Glennon throwing for only 101 yards, while the Packers somehow won despite spotting the Bengals a 21-7 lead at the half. Aaron Rodgers is gonna Aaron Rodgers, though.

The Skinny:
2017 CHI offense: 15.7 PPG (28th), 121.7 rushing yds/gm (8th), 205.0 passing yds/gm (24th), seven sacks allowed (T-14th), six turnovers (T-26th
2017 GB offense: 22.3 PPG (15th), 69.0 rushing yds/gm (T-29th), 322.3 passing yds/gm (2nd), 13 sacks allowed (31st), four turnovers (T-15th)
2017 CHI defense: 23.0 PPG allowed (T-21st), 83.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (8th), 253.3 passing yds/gm allowed (19th), seven sacks (T-17th), three turnovers (T-15th)
2017 GB defense: 22.3 PPG allowed (T-18th), 113.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (21st), 207.3 passing yds/gm allowed (7th), nine sacks (T-9th), two turnovers (T-23rd)
Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 GB,

Chicago (+7) at Green Bay, 45.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EDT

The Story: Expect a sloppy affair in this one, as both teams played grueling games in Week 3 and now face a short turnaround. I don't mean to jinx anyone, but that short week could also pose problems for players like Jordan Howard and Jordy Nelson, who have been nursing injuries through the early part of the schedule. The Bears somehow won Sunday despite Mike Glennon throwing for only 101 yards, while the Packers somehow won despite spotting the Bengals a 21-7 lead at the half. Aaron Rodgers is gonna Aaron Rodgers, though.

The Skinny:
2017 CHI offense: 15.7 PPG (28th), 121.7 rushing yds/gm (8th), 205.0 passing yds/gm (24th), seven sacks allowed (T-14th), six turnovers (T-26th
2017 GB offense: 22.3 PPG (15th), 69.0 rushing yds/gm (T-29th), 322.3 passing yds/gm (2nd), 13 sacks allowed (31st), four turnovers (T-15th)
2017 CHI defense: 23.0 PPG allowed (T-21st), 83.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (8th), 253.3 passing yds/gm allowed (19th), seven sacks (T-17th), three turnovers (T-15th)
2017 GB defense: 22.3 PPG allowed (T-18th), 113.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (21st), 207.3 passing yds/gm allowed (7th), nine sacks (T-9th), two turnovers (T-23rd)
Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 GB, average score GB 29-CHI 19, average margin of victory 13 points. Those numbers are skewed a little by the Packers' 55-14 rout at Lambeau in 2014.
Rodgers career stats versus CHI, 18 games: 14-4, 67.7 percent completion rate, 245.4 passing yds/gm, 38:9 TD:INT, 105.7 QB rating
Weather forecast: Partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, 19 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jordan Howard gets held to 40 yards, but Tarik Cohen scampers for 90 combined yards and a receiving score. Glennon throws for 220 yards and a second TD to Markus Wheaton. Ty Montgomery gains 70 combined yards. Rodgers throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Nelson and Martellus Bennett. Packers, 23-17

New Orleans vs. Miami (+3) at London, 49.5 o/u – Sunday, 9:30 am ET

The Story: As we saw last week, knowing how to prepare for these London games can make the difference between being competitive and being the Ravens, which could be trouble for either or both of these teams. Sean Payton was at the helm for the Saints' lone UK appearance – a 37-32 win over the Chargers – but it came way back in 2008, while Adam Gase has yet to be the head coach for one of these, though he was on the Broncos' staff for their 2010 loss to the 49ers. Based on who played the halftime shows, I have to give the edge to New Orleans. They got the Stereophonics, albeit a little past their peak, while Denver had to listen to My Chemical Romance.

The Skinny:
2017 NO offense: 24.3 PPG (11th), 96.7 rushing yds/gm (T-18th), 289.0 passing yds/gm (T-5th), three sacks allowed (T-3rd), zero turnovers (1st)
2017 MIA offense: 12.5 PPG (30th), 70.5 rushing yds/gm (28th), 225.0 passing yds/gm (21st), five sacks allowed (T-9th), two turnovers (T-8th)
2017 NO defense: 26.0 PPG allowed (30th), 126.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (24th), 325.7 passing yds/gm allowed (30th), seven sacks (T-17th), three turnovers (T-15th)
2017 MIA defense: 18.5 PPG allowed (6th), 73.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (5th), 290.0 passing yds/gm allowed (28th), three sacks (T-30th), one turnover (32nd)
Drew Brees career stats versus MIA, five games: 2-3, 66.9 percent completion rate, 257.4 passing yds/gm, 7:8 TD:INT, 7.1 YPA, 81.9 QB rating
Jay Cutler career stats versus NO, four games: 1-3, 56.6 percent completion rate, 265.0 passing yds/gm, 7:4 TD:INT, 7.4 YPA, 84.8 QB rating
Weather forecast: Partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, 14 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mark Ingram gains 50 yards, but Alvin Kamara leads the Saints backfield with 110 combined yards and a receiving TD. Brees throws for 320 yards and two more touchdowns, hitting Michael Thomas and Willie Snead. Jay Ajayi starts despite his lingering knee issue, picking up 70 yards and a score. Cutler throws for 260 yards and TDs to DeVante Parker and Julius Thomas. Stephone Anthony also returns an Ingram fumble to the house. Dolphins, 34-27

Tennessee at Houston (+1.5), 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: While Marcus Mariota could go on to have a great career, the current version of the Titans offense is built around their running game and top-shelf offensive line, which will keep him from having many explosive passing days even when Corey Davis gets healthy. Don't ask me to explain how Deshaun Watson nearly pulled off the impossible by walking into Gillette Stadium and handing Bill Belichick a loss, but the bigger mystery in Houston might be where J.J. Watt and the defense have disappeared to. Allowing the Pats to rack up 36 points is one thing, but the Jags hung 29 on them in Week 1, too.

The Skinny:
2017 TEN offense: 28.7 PPG (6th), 156.3 rushing yds/gm (2nd), 232.0 passing yds/gm (18th), two sacks allowed (T-1st), one turnover (T-2nd)
2017 HOU offense: 17.7 PPG (T-20th), 128.7 rushing yds/gm (7th), 196.7 passing yds/gm (29th), 15 sacks allowed (32nd), six turnovers (T-26th)
2017 TEN defense: 23.0 PPG allowed (T-21st), 92.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (16th), 286.0 passing yds/gm allowed (26th), five sacks (T-27th), three turnovers (T-15th)
2017 HOU defense: 24.7 PPG allowed (25th), 98.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (17th), 242.3 passing yds/gm allowed (17th), eight sacks (T-11th), two turnovers (T-23rd)
Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 HOU, average score HOU 28-TEN 16, average margin of victory 14 points. TEN ended a five-game losing streak against HOU in their final meeting last year, and has an active five-game losing streak against them in NRG Stadium.
Watt career stats versus TEN, 10 games: 42 tackles, including 15.5 sacks,
Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: DeMarco Murray piles up 80 yards and a score, while Derrick Henry also gets into the end zone. Mariota throws for 250 yards and runs for 40 more, tossing a touchdown to Rishard Matthews. Lamar Miller gains 80 combined yards. Watson throws for 220 yards and gets picked off twice, but does throw one TD to Ryan Griffin and runs in a second one. Titans, 30-17

Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets (+3), 39.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Jaguars looked like a completely different team in dismantling the Ravens last week. Blake Bortles put up a stat line Aaron Rodgers would be proud of, while the defense routinely handed him short fields and generally played like the kind of unit that can carry a team a long way in the postseason. The Jets pulled out a shocking win of their own, but that just puts them a game back of Cleveland and San Francisco in the race to draft (insert name of your favorite current college QB here).

The Skinny:
2017 JAC offense: 29.7 PPG (4th), 140.0 rushing yds/gm (5th), 197.3 passing yds/gm (28th), two sacks allowed (T-1st), three turnovers (T-11th)
2017 NYJ offense: 17.3 PPG (22nd), 89.0 rushing yds/gm (23rd), 200.7 passing yds/gm (27th), seven sacks allowed (T-14th), five turnovers (T-19th
2017 JAC defense: 17.0 PPG allowed (4th), 135.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (28th), 147.7 passing yds/gm allowed (1st), 13 sacks (1st), eight turnovers (T-2nd)
2017 NYJ defense: 24.0 PPG allowed (24th), 133.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (27th), 224.7 passing yds/gm allowed (T-12th), five sacks (T-27th), three turnovers (T-15th)
Key injuries, NYJ: RB Matt Forte (toe, out); DE Leonard Williams (wrist, questionable); DE Muhammad Wilkerson (shoulder, questionable)
This will be the first time the Jaguars have not had a bye immediately following their London game.
Weather forecast: clear, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Leonard Fournette pounds out 120 yards and two TDs. Bortles throws for 210 yards and touchdowns to Marqise Lee and Chris Ivory. Elijah McGuire, not Bilal Powell, leads the Jets backfield with 60 combined yards. Josh McCown throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Jaguars, 31-6

Carolina (+9) at New England, 49.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: You're heard of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object? Yeah, this is the opposite of that. Cam Newton and his bum shoulder can't move the ball, while the Pats defense just allowed 33 points at home to a rookie QB and can't seem to get out of their own way, much less get in anyone else's. If Cam couldn't get it going against the Saints' rotten D, though, it's hard to imagine him suddenly finding a spark here.

The Skinny:
2017 CAR offense: 15.0 PPG (29th), 108.3 rushing yds/gm (13th), 194.3 passing yds/gm (30th), 10 sacks allowed (T-22nd), five turnovers (T-19th)
2017 NE offense: 33.0 PPG (2nd), 100.7 rushing yds/gm (16th), 364.0 passing yds/gm (1st), 10 sacks allowed (T-22nd), one turnover (T-2nd)
2017 CAR defense: 13.3 PPG allowed (2nd), 89.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (15th), 179.3 passing yds/gm allowed (3rd), eight sacks (T-11th), two turnovers (T-23rd)
2017 NE defense: 31.7 PPG allowed (32nd), 130.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (26th), 341.7 passing yds/gm allowed (32nd), six sacks (T-21st), three turnovers (T-15th)
Tom Brady career stats versus CAR, four games: 2-2, 60.7 percent completion rate, 239.0 passing yds/gm, 4:5 TD:INT, 6.6 YPA, 75.0 QB rating.
Weather forecast: clear, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jonathan Stewart scrapes together 70 yards, while Christian McCaffrey also gains 70 combined yards and scores his first career receiving touchdown. Newton is otherwise ineffective once again, throwing for less than 200 yards without adding much on the ground. Dion Lewis leads the Pats backfield with 50 combined yards. Brady throws for 240 yards and two TDs, hitting Brandin Cooks for both. Patriots, 20-10

Detroit (+2) at Minnesota, 42.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Heartbreak, thy name is Golden Tate. It's one thing to lose a game because you came up a few inches shy of the goal line, it's another to lose a game because the refs got a call wrong with eight seconds left and were required to run 10 seconds off the clock, denying you a chance to scramble to the line for a QB sneak or get a defensive penalty in the confusion. Expect the Competition Committee to take a long look at that rule in the offseason. Case Keenum had a career game last week against the Bucs, slinging the ball around the field like, umm ... when was the last time the Vikings had a quarterback who put up numbers like that on the regular? Daunte Culpepper? Fran Tarkenton? It's fair to wonder whether that was more due to Keenum's talent level, or a big emotional letdown from a team that had a hurricane-enforced Week 1 bye (see: Dolphins, Miami).

The Skinny:
2017 DET offense: 28.3 PPG (7th), 97.0 rushing yds/gm (17th), 226.0 passing yds/gm (20th), six sacks allowed (T-11th), two turnovers (T-8th)
2017 MIN offense: 24.0 PPG (12th), 115.0 rushing yds/gm (11th), 294.0 passing yds/gm (3rd), three sacks allowed (T-3rd), one turnover (T-2nd)
2017 DET defense: 21.0 PPG allowed (T-14th), 86.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (12th), 267.0 passing yds/gm allowed (22nd), eight sacks (T-11th), eight turnovers (T-2nd)
2017 MIN defense: 20.7 PPG allowed (T-12th), 62.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 287.3 passing yds/gm allowed (27th), five sacks (T-27th), three turnovers (T-15th)
Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score DET 19-MIN 19, average margin of victory seven points
Matthew Stafford career stats versus MIN, 14 games: 7-7, 62.7 percent completion rate, 252.4 passing yds/gm, 21:6 TD:INT, 6.5 YPA, 89.8 QB rating
Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Ameer Abdullah is held to just 50 yards. Stafford throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to TJ Jones. Dalvin Cook gashes the Lions for 130 combined yards and a score. Keenum throws for 240 yards and TDs to Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph, but also throws a pick-six to Tahir Whitehead to keep things close. Vikings, 24-20

Buffalo (+8) at Atlanta, 48.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Bills defense has been outstanding so far statistically, but a look at their schedule (the tanking NYJ, CAR without Cam Newton at 100 percent, DEN in their first road game) suggests their rankings may be due to circumstance as much as talent. Matt Ryan threw multiple interceptions last week for the first time since Week 12 of 2015, ending a streak of nine consecutive games (including last year's postseason) without a pick. Atlanta's offense has taken a small step backward in 2017, but only a small one, and it's easy to see Ryan beginning another INT-free streak in this one.

The Skinny:
2017 BUF offense: 16.7 PPG (25th), 111.3 rushing yds/gm (12th), 187.3 passing yds/gm (31st), nine sacks allowed (T-20th), one turnover (T-2nd)
2017 ATL offense: 29.0 PPG (5th), 118.7 rushing yds/gm (10th), 289.0 passing yds/gm (T-5th), seven sacks allowed (T-14th), three turnovers (T-11th)
2017 BUF defense: 12.3 PPG allowed (1st), 75.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (7th), 224.7 passing yds/gm allowed (T-12th), 10 sacks (T-6th), four turnovers (T-9th)
2017 ATL defense: 22.0 PPG allowed (17th), 85.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (9th), 273.3 passing yds/gm allowed (23rd), nine sacks (T-9th), two turnovers (T-23rd)
LeSean McCoy career stats versus ATL, four games: 206 rushing yds, 3.4 YPC, 88 receiving yds, four TDs (three rushing, one receiving)
Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: McCoy gains 90 combined yards and a touchdown. Tyrod Taylor throws for 210 yards and a TD to Jordan Matthews. Devonta Freeman rips off 110 combined yards, while Tevin Coleman adds 50 yards and a score. Ryan throws for 260 yards and TDs to Julio Jones and Austin Hooper. Falcons, 27-14

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (+3), 42.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Both teams come into this one angry after tough losses (for different reasons) in Week 3, but they really don't need an excuse to beat up each other in what has evolved into a smashmouth, throwback division rivalry. Ben Roethlisberger hasn't thrown for 300 yards on the road since Week 1 last year, while Joe Flacco has only two games with QB ratings over 100 during that same stretch – two home wins last year over the Bills and Dolphins.

The Skinny:
2017 PIT offense: 21.3 PPG (T-16th), 69.0 rushing yds/gm (T-29th), 247.0 passing yds/gm (15th), six sacks allowed (T-11th), three turnovers (T-11th)
2017 BAL offense: 17.0 PPG (T-23rd), 142.3 rushing yds/gm (4th), 134.0 passing yds/gm (32nd), five sacks allowed (T-9th), six turnovers (T-26th)
2017 PIT defense: 16.7 PPG allowed (3rd), 122.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (22nd), 163.3 passing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 11 sacks (T-2nd), four turnovers (T-9th)
2017 BAL defense: 18.0 PPG allowed (5th), 112.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (19th), 238.0 passing yds/gm allowed (16th), eight sacks (T-11th), 10 turnovers (1st)
Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 BAL, average score BAL 21-PIT 20, average margin of victory seven points. Seven of those 10 games were decided by four points or less, with only a pair of 20-point wins (one by each team) keeping the average margin as high as it is.
Flacco career stats versus PIT, 17 games: 9-8, 60.6 percent completion rate, 222.8 passing yds/gm, 20:9 TD:INT, 6.5 YPA, 84.7 QB rating
Weather forecast: clear, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Le'Veon Bell finally tops 100 yards from scrimmage this season and adds a TD. Reothlisberger throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Juju Smith-Schuster. Javorius Allen leads the Ravens backfield with 70 combined yards. Flacco throws for 260 yards and a score to Jeremy Maclin. Ravens, 19-17

Cincinnati at Cleveland (+3), 41.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Bengals' offense finally showed signs of life last year, at least in the first half of their loss to the Packers. New coordinator Bill Lazor seems committed to Joe Mixon as his lead back, but the rookie hasn't exactly set the world on fire yet with a 3.1 YPC and just one carry of 20-plus yards. The Browns remain bad, with a loss to Jacoby Brissett being the latest indignity heaped on their heads, and they'll need to get a lot healthier before they're likely to start climbing out of their hole – assuming they even want to, with another first overall pick potentially in sight.

The Skinny:
2017 CIN offense: 11.0 PPG (32nd), 89.7 rushing yds/gm (21st), 202.0 passing yds/gm (26th), 11 sacks allowed (T-25th), seven turnovers (31st)
2017 CLE offense: 18.7 PPG (T-18th), 87.0 rushing yds/gm (24th), 254.7 passing yds/gm (13th), 11 sacks allowed (T-25th), nine turnovers (32nd)
2017 CIN defense: 20.0 PPG allowed (T-9th), 129.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (25th), 186.3 passing yds/gm allowed (4th), 10 sacks (T-6th), two turnovers (T-23rd)
2017 CLE defense: 25.3 PPG allowed (T-27th), 87.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (14th), 246.3 passing yds/gm allowed (18th), six sacks (T-21st), four turnovers (T-9th)
Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 CIN with five straight wins, average score CIN 26-CLE 16, average margin of victory 18 points.
A.J. Green career stats versus CLE, 11 games: 52 catches on 92 targets for 824 yards and six TDs.
Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mixon busts out for 130 combined yards and his first two NFL touchdowns. Andy Dalton throws for 270 yards and two TDs to Green, who tops 100 yards. Duke Johnson leads the Browns backfield with 60 combined yards and a score. DeShone Kizer throws for less than 200 yards but does run for 50. Bengals 31-13

L.A. Rams (+6) at Dallas, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: No, that's not a typo. The Rams lead the league in scoring so far this season. Weird. Games against the Colts and Niners certainly don't hurt, but the fact that Jared Goff is able to exploit soft matchups is a huge step forward from where he was last season. Despite their extremely young secondary, though, the Cowboys may not qualify thanks to a surprisingly nasty front seven led by DeMarcus Lawrence – who became only the third player in NFL history to record more than one sack in each of the first three games of a season. The other two guys are Mark Gastineau and Kevin Greene, which is pretty good company to keep if you're a pass rusher.

The Skinny:
2017 LAR offense: 35.7 PPG (1st), 95.3 rushing yds/gm (20th), 285.7 passing yds/gm (7th), three sacks allowed (T-3rd), five turnovers (T-19th)
2017 DAL offense: 21.3 PPG (T-16th), 89.3 rushing yds/gm (22nd), 229.7 passing yds/gm (19th), four sacks allowed (T-6th), two turnovers (T-8th)
2017 LAR defense: 25.0 PPG allowed (26th), 139.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (29th), 230.0 passing yds/gm allowed (14th), 10 sacks (T-6th), five turnovers (T-6th)
2017 DAL defense: 20.7 PPG allowed (T-12th), 87.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (13th), 258.7 passing yds/gm allowed (20th), 11 sacks (T-2nd), three turnovers (T-15th)
DAL sack leader, 2016: Benson Mayowa, six in 13 games. DAL sack leader, 2017: Lawrence, 6.5 in three games.
Todd Gurley, scoring in 2016: six TDs in 16 games. Gurley, scoring in 2017: six TDs in three games.
Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Gurley runs for 110 yards and a score. Goff throws for 240 yards and a TD to Robert Woods, but also gets picked off twice. Ezekiel Elliott responds with 150 yards and a touchdown, while Dak Prescott throws for 220 yards and TDs to Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley. Cowboys, 30-20

Philadelphia (+1.5) at L.A. Chargers, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

The Story: Darren Sproles' brutal injuries opens the door for Wendell Smallwood to get a much bigger share of the work in the Eagles' backfield – he saw more snaps and touches in Week 3 than he had in the first two games combined, though LeGarrette Blount also had his best game so far in a Philly uniform against the Giants. The Chargers remain the masters of losing winnable games, regardless of which city they're playing in, but at least Younghoe Koo didn't miss a kick last week.

The Skinny:
2017 PHI offense: 25.7 PPG (10th), 119.3 rushing yds/gm (9th), 272.0 passing yds/gm (9th), 11 sacks allowed (T-25th), five turnovers (T-19th)
2017 LAC offense: 16.0 PPG (T-26th), 70.7 rushing yds/gm (27th), 253.3 passing yds/gm (14th), four sacks allowed (T-6th), four turnovers (T-15th)
2017 PHI defense: 22.7 PPG allowed (20th), 75.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (6th), 285.7 passing yds/gm allowed (25th), eight sacks (T-11th), six turnovers (5th)
2017 LAC defense: 22.3 PPG allowed (T-18th), 146.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (31st), 201.3 passing yds/gm allowed (6th), 11 sacks (T-2nd), two turnovers (T-23rd)
Philip Rivers career stats versus PHI, three games: 2-1, 77.8 percent completion rate, 216.7 passing yds/gm, 5:0 TD:INT, 9.0 YPA, 127.4 QB rating
Weather forecast: clear, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Smallwood picks up 90 combined yards, but Blount scores a short TD. Carson Wentz throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Zach Ertz. Melvin Gordon gets held out of the end zone but does produce 100 combined yards. Rivers throws for 340 yards and three TDs, with Keenan Allen hauling in two of them plus 120 yards and Travis Benjamin snagging the third. Chargers, 27-17

N.Y. Giants (+3) at Tampa Bay, 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

The Story: By a strange coincidence, the Giants' offense sprung to life when Odell Beckham got back up to speed and started seeing double-digit targets from Eli Manning again. Weird. The duo now gets to face a Bucs defense that just got wrecked by Case Keenum, of all people. When healthy, the Tampa Bay defense shouldn't be that bad, but their depth chart is littered with injured starters, including veteran cornerback Brent Grimes, who's nursing a shoulder issue.

The Skinny:
2017 NYG offense: 12.3 PPG (31st), 48.7 rushing yds/gm (32nd), 275.0 passing yds/gm (8th), eight sacks allowed (19th), four turnovers (T-15th)
2017 TB offense: 23.0 PPG (14th), 71.5 rushing yds/gm (26th), 266.0 passing yds/gm (10th), four sacks allowed (T-6th), four turnovers (T-15th)
2017 NYG defense: 23.3 PPG allowed (23rd), 153.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 188.7 passing yds/gm allowed (5th), seven sacks (T-17th), two turnovers (T-23rd)
2017 TB defense: 20.5 PPG allowed (11th), 72.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (4th), 335.0 passing yds/gm allowed (31st), one sack (32nd), four turnovers (T-9th)
Manning career stats versus TB, four games: 4-0, 59.6 percent completion rate, 259.5 passing yds/gm, 8:5 TD:INT, 7.1 YPA, 85.4 QB rating
Key injuries, TB: LB Kwon Alexander (hamstring, out); LB Lavonte David (ankle, doubtful); S T.J. Ward (hip, doubtful); DT Gerald McCoy (ankle, questionable); CB Brent Grimes (shoulder, questionable)
Weather forecast: 14 mph wind, 52 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Shane Vereen leads the Giants' backfield with 50 combined yards. Manning throws for 310 yards and TDs to Beckham and Brandon Marshall. Jacquizz Rodgers ekes out 60 yards. Jameis Winston throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to DeSean Jackson. Giants, 23-13

San Francisco (+7) at Arizona, 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

The Story: While Kyle Shanahan's fingerprints were all over last week's 39-point explosion against the Rams, the injury-riddled defense coughed up 41 to Jared Goff. Whoops. There's enough talent on both sides of the ball to drag the team out of the race for next year's first overall pick, but they'll need to get healthy first. Carson Palmer and the Cards' offense showed an early flicker of life against the Cowboys, but eventually got stymied by a bunch of wet-behind-the-ears DBs flooding the field behind a three-man rush. That's a pretty easy blueprint for other teams to follow, and until someone in the Arizona backfield offers at least a hint of a threat on the ground, they could get nickel and dime packaged to death.

The Skinny:
2017 SF offense: 17.0 PPG (T-23rd), 107.7 rushing yds/gm (14th), 208.0 passing yds/gm (23rd), 10 sacks allowed (T-22nd), five turnovers (T-19th)
2017 ARI offense: 18.7 PPG (T-18th), 59.0 rushing yds/gm (31st), 308.3 passing yds/gm (3rd), 11 sacks allowed (T-25th), five turnovers (T-19th)
2017 SF defense: 25.3 PPG allowed (T-27th), 124.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (23rd), 220.3 passing yds/gm allowed (10th), three sacks (T-30th), four turnovers (T-9th)
2017 ARI defense: 25.3 PPG allowed (T-27th), 85.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (T-10th), 230.3 passing yds/gm allowed (15th), six sacks (T-21st), two turnovers (T-23rd)
Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score ARI 22-SF 20, average margin of victory 12 points
Key injuries, SF: RB Carlos Hyde (hip, questionable); LB Reuben Foster (foot, out); S Eric Reid (knee, out); S Jaquiski Tartt (concussion, questionable)
Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Hyde starts but is ineffective, managing 50 yards. Brian Hoyer throws for 210 yards and a TD to Pierre Garcon. Chris Johnson runs for 80 yards and a score. Palmer throws for 280 yards and three touchdowns to Larry Fitzgerald, Brittan Golden and Andre Ellington. Cardinals, 31-13

Oakland (+2.5) at Denver, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Raiders' East-Coast flop shouldn't have been that surprising, but Derek Carr's was, as he hadn't thrown multiple INTs in a game since Week 14 of 2015. He can't afford to be sloppy two weeks in a row, either, as the Broncos defense will be looking for someone to take their frustration out on after Von Miller got hit with the worst unsportsmanlike conduct penalty in league history in Buffalo. Of course, if Trevor Siemian doesn't rebound from his own two-pick performance, what Miller and the defense do could be a moot point.

The Skinny:
2017 OAK offense: 27.0 PPG (9th), 107.0 rushing yds/gm (15th), 203.3 passing yds/gm (25th), six sacks allowed (T-11th), three turnovers (T-11th)
2017 DEN offense: 27.3 PPG (8th), 143.0 rushing yds/gm (3rd), 236.3 passing yds/gm (17th), nine sacks allowed (T-20th), six turnovers (T-26th)
2017 OAK defense: 21.0 PPG allowed (T-14th), 112.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (20th), 262.3 passing yds/gm allowed (21st), six sacks (T-21st), four turnovers (T-9th)
2017 DEN defense: 21.3 PPG allowed (16th), 59.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (1st), 214.3 passing yds/gm allowed (9th), seven sacks (T-17th), three turnovers (T-15th)
Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 DEN, average score DEN 29-OAK 15, average margin of victory 17 points
Derek Carr career stats versus DEN, five games: 2-3, 58.2 percent completion rate, 183.6 passing yds/gm, 6:4 TD:INT, 5.0 YPA, 73.5 QB rating
Weather forecast: clear, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Marshawn Lynch bashes out 70 yards. Carr throws for 220 yards and a TD to Jared Cook. C.J. Anderson gains 70 combined yards and a score, while Jamaal Charles also catches a TD pass. Siemian throws for 240 yards. Broncos, 17-10

Indianapolis (+13) at Seattle, 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

The Story: Jacoby Brissett threw his first career TD pass last week but it might end up being his last, as Andrew Luck should return to practice next week. Sure, the Colts beat the Browns, and they might beat the Niners at home in Week 5, but this is still not a great team even when their franchise player is healthy, and without him they're one of the dregs of the league. Their unimpressive pass rush should also make life a little easier for Russell Wilson, who seems to have a new starting running back in Chris Carson but might be without his favorite target Sunday night, as Doug Baldwin is nursing a groin strain.

The Skinny:
2017 IND offense: 17.7 PPG (T-20th), 81.0 rushing yds/gm (25th), 218.0 passing yds/gm (22nd), 11 sacks allowed (T-25th), five turnovers (T-19th)
2017 SEA offense: 16.0 PPG (T-26th), 96.7 rushing yds/gm (T-18th), 243.0 passing yds/gm (16th), seven sacks allowed (T-14th), one turnover (T-2nd)
2017 IND defense: 30.0 PPG allowed (31st), 85.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (T-10th), 297.3 passing yds/gm allowed (29th), six sacks (T-21st), five turnovers (T-6th)
2017 SEA defense: 19.7 PPG allowed (8th), 146.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (30th), 211.7 passing yds/gm allowed (8th), six sacks (T-21st), two turnovers (T-23rd)
Frank Gore career stats versus SEA, 18 games: 1421 rushing yards (his most against any franchise), 5.1 YPC, five rushing TDs
Weather forecast: cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, 11 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Gore runs for 80 yards and a score. Brissett throws for less than 200 yards and doesn't get the ball into the end zone. Carson picks up 70 yards and a TD. Wilson throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, both to Jimmy Graham. Seahawks 30-7

Washington (+7) at Kansas City, 49.5 o/u – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

The Story: So, who exactly is Kirk Cousins' No. 1 option? Jordan Reed isn't healthy (big shock there), and now Jamison Crowder is starting to have lower-body issues as well. Terrelle Pryor has the ability but has also only gotten eight targets the last two games against secondaries that aren't exactly elite, so clearly there's a disconnect between him and his new QB. Josh Doctson, last year's first-round pick, is the one getting the current buzz after his spectacular TD grab against the Raiders, but Washington fans who are sick of Reed always being banged up must be thrilled at the thought of a No. 1 WR that's managed to be on the field for only five games so far in his career. Cousins may need to figure it out quickly, as his defense – which has held up against OK competition so far – looks to be the first unit to ruin Kareem Hunt's coming-out party. They'll also need to find a way to keep a lid on Travis Kelce after allowing 250 receiving yards to tight ends through three weeks, the most in the league.

The Skinny:
2017 WAS offense: 23.7 PPG (13th), 136.3 rushing yds/gm (6th)261.3 passing yds/gm (11th), seven sacks allowed (T-14th), six turnovers (T-26th)
2017 KC offense: 31.0 PPG (3rd), 162.0 rushing yds/gm (1st), 258.0 passing yds/gm (12th), 12 sacks allowed (30th), one turnover (T-2nd)
2017 WAS defense: 20.0 PPG allowed (T-9th), 62.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 224.0 passing yds/gm allowed (11th), eight sacks (T-11th), seven turnovers (4th)
2017 KC defense: 19.0 PPG allowed (7th), 111.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (18th), 279.0 passing yds/gm allowed (24th), 11 sacks (T-2nd), five turnovers (T-6th)
Key injuries, WAS: TE Jordan Reed (ribs/shoulder, questionable); RB Rob Kelley (ribs, questionable); WR Jamison Crowder (hamstring, questionable); LB Mason Foster (shoulder, questionable); DE Jonathan Allen (shoulder, questionable)
Weather forecast: wind less than 10 mph, 12 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Chris Thompson leads the Washington backfield with 70 combined yards. Cousins throws for 280 yards and three TDs, hitting Pryor, Doctson and Ryan Grant. Hunt keeps rolling, piling up 120 combined yards and a touchdown. Alex Smith throws for 250 yards and TDs to Kelce and Tyreek Hill, who also returns a punt to the house. Chiefs, 34-24

Last week's record: 10-6, 7-9 ATS, 6-9-1 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 30-17, 21-25-1 ATS, 21-24-2 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Erik Siegrist
Erik Siegrist is an FSWA award-winning columnist who covers all four major North American sports (that means the NHL, not NASCAR) and whose beat extends back to the days when the Nationals were the Expos and the Thunder were the Sonics. He was the inaugural champion of Rotowire's Staff Keeper baseball league. His work has also appeared at Baseball Prospectus.
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