This article is part of our On Target series.
We have discussed advanced metrics in this column already this season and in seasons past but this year, we have yet to take a deeper look at touchdown scoring. With six weeks of data, we should be able to get a sense of who is getting lucky and unlucky, and try to identify 10 players who are due for some sort of regression.
It pains me to say it, but Nelson has a lot of signals that he will honestly be barely startable the rest of the way. The Aaron Rodgers injury absolutely submarines his value, specifically, because he has had one of his lowest target shares of his Packers career thus far and has been propped up by turning seven targets inside the 10-yard line into five touchdowns. Brett Hundley is not going to support that sort of efficiency, though Nelson could see his target volume increase if the Packers re-structure their offense to spread the ball around less with their new, inexperienced QB.
I never thought that I would be writing positively about Allen's ability to score more touchdowns, but he has the lowest ratio of targets to touchdowns scored inside the 10-yard line in all of the NFL. Allen is not really a "touchdown maker" but if he continues to be used in that role near the goal line, he could finish this season with eight touchdowns, which would be just a giant boost to his total value as that has not been