NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 9

Detroit at Green Bay (+2.5), 43.0 o/u – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The Story: Matthew Stafford is coming off a really weird stat line, as he threw for 423 yards but couldn't get the ball in the end zone last week against the Steelers. The Packers don't seem likely to offer as much resistance in the red zone, but Stafford also won't have to worry about keeping pace with Aaron Rodgers for once. Brett Hundley has looked fairly terrible in two games so far since Rodgers went down, and another bad showing here could put Joe Callahan under center in the second half if the Lions have a lead that Hundley seems incapable of overcoming.

The Skinny:
•2017 DET offense: 25.1 PPG (9th), 82.1 rushing yds/gm (31st), 264.4 passing yds/gm (8th), 25 sacks allowed (T-27th), nine turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 GB offense: 23.4 PPG (11th), 101.6 rushing yds/gm (18th), 232.7 passing yds/gm (20th), 24 sacks allowed (T-25th), nine turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 DET defense: 24.1 PPG allowed (25th), 91.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (6th), 268.3 passing yds/gm allowed (25th), 13 sacks (T-24th), 16 turnovers (T-3rd)
•2017 GB defense: 23.0 PPG allowed (T-20th), 125.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (26th), 237.3 passing yds/gm allowed (15th), 12 sacks (T-28th), 13 turnovers (T-6th)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 GB, with GB winning three straight. Average score GB 23-DET 22, average margin of victory 10 points.
•Matthew Stafford career stats against GB, 13 games: 3-10, 60.1 percent completion rate, 291.4 passing yds/gm, 25:19 TD:INT, 7.1 YPA, 82.4 QB rating
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ameer Abdullah piles up 90 combined yards, but Theo Riddick is the one who catches a TD pass. Stafford throws for 250 yards and two more touchdowns to Golden Tate and Marvin Jones. Aaron Jones runs for 60 yards. Hundley throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice before Callahan comes in and tries to mount a second-half comeback, finding Lance Kendricks and Geronimo Allison in the end zone. Lions, 27-20

Indianapolis (+7) at Houston, 46.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: So, when I was prepping for this week's capsules, the spread on this one was IND plus 12.5, and the over/under 50 points. Somehow, I think the dropoff from Deshaun Watson to Tom Savage might be worth a bit more than that. The Texans do still have Lamar Miller, but he's been nursing a knee injury and has only topped 4.0 YPC in a game once this year, so he may not be the guy you want your offense to rely on. Then again, the Colts are basically bad at everything, so maybe Savage can look competent this time.

The Skinny:
•2017 IND offense: 17.8 PPG (25th), 99.5 rushing yds/gm (19th), 221.3 passing yds/gm (26th), 33 sacks allowed (32nd), 10 turnovers (T-15th)
•2017 HOU offense: 30.7 PPG (1st), 138.3 rushing yds/gm (3rd), 251.6 passing yds/gm (13th), 26 sacks allowed (30th), 12 turnovers (T-20th)
•2017 IND defense: 30.8 PPG allowed (32nd), 116.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (19th), 302.4 passing yds/gm allowed (31st), 16 sacks (T-20th), 12 turnovers (T-10th)
•2017 HOU defense: 26.9 PPG allowed (29th), 96.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (9th), 251.4 passing yds/gm allowed (22nd), 17 sacks (T-15th), 11 turnovers (T-12th)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 IND, average score IND 22-HOU 19, average margin of victory eight points. HOU has won five straight after snapping a six-game losing streak in the series, and the last six games have all been decided by seven points or less.
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Frank Gore plods for his usual 50 yards, but Marlon Mack leads the Colts backfield with 70 total yards and a score. Jacoby Brissett throws for 250 yards and a TD to T.Y. Hilton while running in a touchdown of his own. Miller rumbles for 70 yards and a score, while D'Onta Foreman also catches a TD pass. Savage throws for less than 200 yards but does hit DeAndre Hopkins for a second touchdown. Texans, 27-24

Cincinnati (+4.5) at Jacksonville, 39.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Bengals barely escaped last week at home against the Colts, which really should almost count as a loss in the standings. Their offensive line remains an obstacle to any offensive improvement, as they apparently can't run block or pass protect, leaving new coordinator Bill Lazor unable to establish any kind of identity for the unit. The Jags have no such problem. They've become an old-school ground and pound club with Leonard Fournette and their defense leading the way, minimizing Blake Bortles chances of screwing anything up.

The Skinny:
•2017 CIN offense: 17.4 PPG (26th), 78.4 rushing yds/gm (30th), 229.0 passing yds/gm (22nd), 22 sacks allowed (T-20th), 15 turnovers (T-29th)
•2017 JAC offense: 26.1 PPG (8th), 169.0 rushing yds/gm (1st), 199.7 passing yds/gm (28th), 11 sacks allowed (T-6th), eight turnovers (T-7th)
•2017 CIN defense: 19.3 PPG allowed (9th), 111.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (18th), 201.3 passing yds/gm allowed (4th), 22 sacks (T-9th), five turnovers (T-30th)
•2017 JAC defense: 15.7 PPG allowed (1st), 138.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 190.6 passing yds/gm allowed (1st), 33 sacks (1st), 16 turnovers (T-3rd)
•Andy Dalton career stats versus JAC, three games: 3-0, 63.2 percent completion rate, 218.7 passing yds/gm, 6:4 TD:INT, 6.9 YPA, 87.0 QB rating
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: CIN, fourth against WR1s (minus 31.1 percent DVOA), 32nd against other WRs (45.0 percent DVOA); JAC, second against WR1s (minus 59.9 percent DVOA), fifth against RBs (minus 26.4 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, 11 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Joe Mixon picks up 80 yards. Dalton throws for less than 200 yards and throws a TD to John Ross but gets picked off twice. Fournette bangs out 120 yards and two scores. Bortles throws for 200 yards and a touchdown to Keelan Cole. Jaguars, 24-10

Tampa Bay (+7) at New Orleans, 50.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Jameis Winston's shoulder injury isn't keeping him off the field, but is might be keeping him from producing big numbers the way he was to kick off the campaign. The Saints, meanwhile, have fairly quietly won five consecutive games to surge to the top of the NFC South, largely on the back of Mark Ingram rather than Drew Brees' arm, but recent fumbles could lead to Brees slinging it around more, or even Alvin Kamara getting more early down work.

The Skinny:
•2017 TB offense: 21.1 PPG (18th), 81.1 rushing yds/gm (29th), 306.1 passing yds/gm (2nd), 13 sacks allowed (T-9th), 12 turnovers (T-20th)
•2017 NO offense: 27.3 PPG (6th), 118.7 rushing yds/gm (14th), 278.7 passing yds/gm (5th), seven sacks allowed (1st), seven turnovers (T-4th)
•2017 TB defense: 24.0 PPG allowed (24th), 111.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (17th), 280.9 passing yds/gm allowed (30th), seven sacks (32nd), 10 turnovers (T-16th)
•2017 NO defense: 20.7 PPG allowed (12th), 120.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (21st), 243.4 passing yds/gm allowed (19th), 19 sacks (T-12th), 11 turnovers (T-12th)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 NO, average score NO 28-TB 19, average margin of victory 11 points. Average score in the five Superdome games is NO 34-TB 20, but those numbers are skewed by a 41-0 blowout in 2012.
•Drew Brees career stats versus TB, 23 games: 15-8, 66.6 percent completion rate, 282.2 passing yds/gm, 45:26 TD:INT, 7.6 YPA, 94.2 QB rating
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Doug Martin runs for 70 yards and a score. Winston throws for 230 yards and a TD to Mike Evans but gets picked off twice. Ingram picks up 70 yards and a touchdown, but Kamara supplies 90 combined yards and a receiving score. Brees throws for 310 yards and two more TDs to Michael Thomas and Willie Snead. Saints, 31-20

L.A. Rams at N.Y. Giants (+3.5), 42.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Don't look now, but Jared Goff has come crashing back down to earth. After a hot start against porous secondaries, he's posted a 52.4 percent completion rate, 6.2 YPA and 2:3 TD:INT in his last three games against stiffer opposition. The Giants have plenty of problems, but talent in the secondary isn't one of them, even if Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are taking turns serving suspensions.

The Skinny:
•2017 LAR offense: 30.3 PPG (2nd), 127.6 rushing yds/gm (6th), 251.3 passing yds/gm (14th), 10 sacks allowed (T-3rd), 12 turnovers (T-20th)
•2017 NYG offense: 16.0 PPG (30th), 83.3 rushing yds/gm (27th), 228.6 passing yds/gm (23rd), 17 sacks allowed (T-15th), seven turnovers (T-4th)
•2017 LAR defense: 19.7 PPG allowed (11th), 123.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (25th), 224.1 passing yds/gm allowed (10th), 23 sacks (T-7th), 12 turnovers (T-10th)
•2017 NYG defense: 22.3 PPG allowed (17th), 120.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (23rd), 269.1 passing yds/gm allowed (26th), 13 sacks (T-24th), seven turnovers (T-25th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: LAR, fourth against WR2s (minus 31.6 percent DVOA), fourth against TEs (minus 27.7 percent DVOA); NYG, 31st against WR2s (37.9 percent DVOA)
•Eli Manning career stats against LAR, five games: 5-0, 65.6 percent completion rate, 273.2 passing yds/gm, 12:1 TD:INT, 8.4 YPA, 113.7 QB rating
•Weather forecast: wind less than 10 mph, 25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Todd Gurley piles up 140 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Goff throws for less than 200 yards with a pick-six to Landon Collins. Orleans Darkwa is held to 50 yards. Manning throws for only 210 yards but avoids any big mistakes. Giants, 19-17

Atlanta (+1) at Carolina, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The fact that an offense with this much talent is mired in the middle of the pack in points per game should be grounds for a federal indictment against new coordinator Steve Sarkisian, and it's not like things are getting better. Last week's 25-point "outburst" was their best effort since Week 3, and Matt Ryan hasn't had a 300-yard game since Week 1. I'm sure it's just a coincidence that Julio Jones has only seen double-digit targets twice. Cam Newton couldn't even produce a big game against the Bucs' sad secondary, but the Panthers know they're stuck with him, so they elected to send him a message by trading his buddy to Buffalo instead. That trick always works, right? At least Carolina's defense is doing its part.

The Skinny:
•2017 ATL offense: 21.9 PPG (T-15th), 123.3 rushing yds/gm (11th), 263.4 passing yds/gm (9th), 12 sacks allowed (8th), nine turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 CAR offense: 18.5 PPG (23rd), 97.6 rushing yds/gm (20th), 232.3 passing yds/gm (21st), 22 sacks allowed (T-20th), 14 turnovers (T-27th)
•2017 ATL defense: 21.7 PPG allowed (T-15th), 102.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (11th), 237.0 passing yds/gm allowed (14th), 17 sacks (T-15th), four turnovers (32nd)
•2017 CAR defense: 17.8 PPG allowed (5th), 81.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (5th), 201.6 passing yds/gm allowed (5th), 27 sacks (2nd), seven turnovers (T-25th)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, with ATL winning three straight. Average score CAR 26-ATL 20, average margin of victory 15 points. Only four of the 10 games have been decided by seven points or less, and three by 24 points or more.
•Newton career stats against ATL, 12 games: 5-7, 57.7 percent completion rate, 215.8 passing yds/gm, 17:12 TD:INT, 6.5 YPA, 81.2 QB rating, 48.0 rushing yds/gm, 6.9 YPC, six TDs
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Devonta Freeman gains 70 combined yards and Tevin Coleman adds 60, but neither score. Ryan throws for 230 yards and a TD to Julio. Christian McCaffrey leads the Panthers' backfield with 90 combined yards, but Jonathan Stewart punches in a touchdown. Newton throws for 200 yards and a TD to Russell Shepard, and runs in a second score. Panthers, 24-16

Denver (+8) at Philadelphia, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: On the one hand, this could go down as one of the greatest scams in NFL history. John Elway and the Broncos brain trust knew Brock Osweiler wasn't worth big bucks, so they let some other team set some money on fire and lure him away in free agency, only for him to be right back under center for Denver a year-plus later at basically minimum salary. On the other hand, the Broncos now have a guy under center who couldn't cut it with the Browns. Hmm. Maybe they played themselves after all. The fact that Osweiler first start in his second stint for the Broncos will come against the NFL-leading Eagles doesn't offer much hope of a redemption narrative story here, either, even if it has been a year full of inexplicable results. You know that Philly is thinking Super Bowl when at the trade deadline, they looked at their fourth place standings in total rushing yards and went, "Nah, not good enough."

The Skinny:
•2017 DEN offense: 18.1 PPG (24th), 123.4 rushing yds/gm (10th), 241.0 passing yds/gm (16th), 25 sacks allowed (T-27th), 17 turnovers (31st)
•2017 PHI offense: 29.0 PPG (4th), 129.3 rushing yds/gm (5th), 257.9 passing yds/gm (11th), 22 sacks allowed (T-20th), nine turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 DEN defense: 21.0 PPG allowed (13th), 72.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 200.7 passing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 17 sacks (T-15th), six turnovers (T-28th)
•2017 PHI defense: 19.5 PPG allowed (10th), 70.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (1st), 275.5 passing yds/gm allowed (28th), 22 sacks (T-9th), 14 turnovers (5th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: DEN, third against WR1s (minus 49.4 percent DVOA), 27th against other WRs (25.5 percent DVOA); PHI, second against WR2s (minus 33.3 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, 11 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: C.J. Anderson scrapes together 40 yards. Osweiler throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off three times before being replaced late in the game by Trevor Siemian. LeGarrette Blount pounds out 60 yards. Carson Wentz throws for 230 yards and TDs to Zach Ertz and Torrey Smith, and runs in a score of his own. Eagles, 27-6

Baltimore (+3.5) at Tennessee, 43.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Ravens are 4-4, but all their wins seem to have more to do with their opponents' dysfunction that anything they're doing themselves. Still, Napoleon carved out a decent career for himself by sticking to the maxim, "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake," and John Harbaugh seems to have that quote on his play sheet instead of any actual downfield passes. The Titans might not be the team to make those mistakes, though, especially with Marcus Mariota and DeMarco Murray both off the injury report and Corey Davis starting to work his way back into the mix again.

The Skinny:
•2017 BAL offense: 21.3 PPG (17th), 126.9 rushing yds/gm (7th), 168.3 passing yds/gm (32nd), 17 sacks allowed (T-15th), 12 turnovers (T-20th)
•2017 TEN offense: 22.6 PPG (13th), 124.6 rushing yds/gm (T-8th), 209.0 passing yds/gm (27th), 13 sacks allowed (T-9th), 10 turnovers (T-15th)
•2017 BAL defense: 18.5 PPG allowed (6th), 132.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (30th), 198.4 passing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 19 sacks (T-12th), 17 turnovers (T-1st)
•2017 TEN defense: 24.7 PPG allowed (26th), 100.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (10th), 240.0 passing yds/gm allowed (16th), 11 sacks (T-30th), 10 turnovers (T-16th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: BAL, first against WR1s (minus 63.4 percent DVOA), third against WR2s (minus 33.3 percent DVOA), 32nd against TEs (47.3 percent DVOA); TEN, 29th against WR2s (33.9 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, 14 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Alex Collins gains 70 yards, but Javorius Allen adds 50 combined yards and a receiving TD. Joe Flacco throws for 200 yards and a second score to Mike Wallace. Murray glides for 120 yards and a touchdown. Mariota throws for 240 yards and TDs to Davis and Jonnu Smith. Titans, 24-20

Arizona at San Francisco (+2), 39.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: Drew Stanton is now in his fourth year with the Cardinals. He has a QB rating during that time of 66.2, which is right around his career mark of 65.1, and a TD:INT of 9:11, yet somehow is 6-3 as a starter for Arizona. Their defense isn't what it was, though, and David Johnson isn't walking through that door (well, he might, but his arm's still in a sling.) Jimmy Garoppolo isn't riding to the Niners' rescue just yet either, but it may not matter. So far they have matched the Browns ugly loss for ugly loss in the race for the top pick in 2018, but they could be the first team to blink here despite themselves.

The Skinny:
•2017 ARI offense: 17.0 PPG (27th), 63.4 rushing yds/gm (32nd), 292.0 passing yds/gm (3rd), 24 sacks allowed (T-25th), 11 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 SF offense: 16.6 PPG (29th), 95.8 rushing yds/gm (T-22nd), 236.5 passing yds/gm (18th), 27 sacks allowed (31st), 12 turnovers (T-20th)
•2017 ARI defense: 21.7 PPG allowed (T-15th), 105.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (14th), 259.3 passing yds/gm allowed (23rd), 13 sacks (T-24th), seven turnovers (T-25th)
•2017 SF defense: 27.4 PPG allowed (31st), 131.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (29th), 263.6 passing yds/gm allowed (24th), 17 sacks (T-15th), nine turnovers (T-21st)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 ARI, with ARI winning five straight. Average score ARI 21-SF 20, average margin of victory 11 points.
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, 13 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Adrian Peterson picks up 60 yards. Stanton throws for 220 yards and a TD to Andre Ellington. Carlos Hyde runs for 90 yards and a touchdown. C.J. Beathard throws for less than 200 yards, but does run in a score. 49ers, 17-13

Washington (+7) at Seattle, 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: While Washington isn't quite to the point of putting a jersey on a tackling dummy, lining it up at guard and hoping pass rushers run into it on their own, the team is pretty close. The o-line is absolutely gutted, and Jordan Reed is back on the sidelines too, giving Kirk Cousins one less hot read he trusts. The Seahawks barely escaped the fury of what turned out to be Deshaun Watson's final game of the year, but that might have just served as Seattle's annual midseason wake-up call. They've got a stretch of four very soft matchups coming up before things get harrowing again, so expect Russell Wilson to make the most of it.

The Skinny:
•2017 WAS offense: 22.9 PPG (12th), 105.4 rushing yds/gm (17th), 271.4 passing yds/gm (7th), 16 sacks allowed (T-12th), 13 turnovers (26th)
•2017 SEA offense: 25.0 PPG (10th), 97.6 rushing yds/gm (21st), 286.9 passing yds/gm (4th), 16 sacks allowed (T-12th), seven turnovers (T-4th)
•2017 WAS defense: 25.7 PPG allowed (28th), 105.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (13th), 236.4 passing yds/gm allowed (13th), 20 sacks (11th), 10 turnovers (T-16th)
•2017 SEA defense: 18.9 PPG allowed (7th), 117.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (20th), 230.9 passing yds/gm allowed (12th), 17 sacks (T-15th), 13 turnovers (T-6th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: WAS, seventh against WR2s (minus 27.5 percent DVOA); SEA, 26th against WR2s (25.7 percent DVOA), second against other WRs (minus 41.2 percent DVOA), first against TEs (minus 30.8 percent DVOA), third against RBs (minus 42.9 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: wind less than 10 mph, 23 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Rob Kelley grinds out 40 yards. Cousins throws for 210 yards and a TD to Josh Doctson, but gets sacked five times and losing a fumble Frank Clark returns for a score. Eddie Lacy picks up 60 yards. Wilson throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Doug Baldwin twice and Jimmy Graham once, with Tyler Lockett also topping 100 yards. Seahawks, 37-10

Kansas City (+2) at Dallas, 54.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: Kareem Hunt finally got stuffed last week, but his performance on the ground has been declining for a while. The rookie's managed only a 3.3 YPC over the last four games, and while his steady work in the passing game has kept his fantasy value afloat, it's mostly fallen to Alex Smith to keep the real points rolling in. In case you haven't really been paying much attention, the veteran QB now has a 16:0 TD:INT through eight games and is on pace for his first 4,000-yard campaign. You have to wonder if Andy Reid is a genius for realizing his QB was even capable of this level of performance, or a moron for not unleashing him a few years ago. The Cowboys' exhausting off-field legal circus took another couple twists this week, and not only did Ezekiel Elliott get a last-minute reprieve from his suspension, Jerry Jones got dragged into Colin Kaepernick's collusion suit. On the field, though, their running game is firing on all cylinders, and could continue plowing opposition defenses under -- at least as long as Zeke keeps finding judges who will catch his legal Hail Marys.

The Skinny:
•2017 KC offense: 29.5 PPG (3rd), 122.8 rushing yds/gm (12th), 272.6 passing yds/gm (6th), 22 sacks allowed (T-20th), three turnovers (T-1st)
•2017 DAL offense: 28.3 PPG (5th), 150.6 rushing yds/gm (2nd), 224.4 passing yds/gm (24th), nine sacks allowed (2nd), eight turnovers (T-7th)
•2017 KC defense: 22.5 PPG allowed (19th), 131.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (28th), 273.1 passing yds/gm allowed (27th), 18 sacks (14th), 13 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 DAL defense: 23.0 PPG allowed (T-20th), 106.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (15th), 250.0 passing yds/gm allowed (21st), 25 sacks (5th), 10 turnovers (T-16th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: KC, 29th against WR1s (29.6 percent DVOA), fifth against WR2s (minus 29.6 percent DVOA), first against RBs (minus 47.4 percent DVOA); DAL, 29th against TEs (25.7 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Hunt collects 100 combined yards and a TD. Smith throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, both to Travis Kelce. Elliott gallops for 110 yards and a score. Dak Prescott throws for 260 yards and TDs to Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley while running in a score of his own. Cowboys, 31-27

Oakland at Miami (+3), 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The Story: I'm not entirely sure how, of these two teams, the Dolphins are the ones above .500, but there it is. The Raiders have an erratic QB playing through a back injury, no running game to speak of, a No. 1 receiver who's apparently spent most of the season in witness protection and a defense that can't get off the field on third down ... and they're the stable ones. Adam Gase decided the problem with his offense was that he had too many Jays, so with Cutler returning to action this week, Ajayi had to go. It makes as much sense as anything else that's happened in Miami this year.

The Skinny:
•2017 OAK offense: 21.1 PPG (19th), 88.0 rushing yds/gm (26th), 239.9 passing yds/gm (17th), 13 sacks allowed (T-9th), 11 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 MIA offense: 13.1 PPG (32nd), 76.4 rushing yds/gm (31st), 194.1 passing yds/gm (29th), 16 sacks allowed (T-12th), 10 turnovers (T-15th)
•2017 OAK defense: 23.8 PPG allowed (23rd), 120.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (22nd), 245.4 passing yds/gm allowed (20th), 12 sacks (T-28th), five turnovers (T-30th)
•2017 MIA defense: 21.7 PPG allowed (T-15th), 95.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (8th), 223.9 passing yds/gm allowed (9th), 15 sacks (23rd), six turnovers (T-28th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: OAK, 30th against WR1s (32.1 percent DVOA); MIA, 28th against WR2s (30.0 percent DVOA), 28th against other WRs (26.6 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Marshawn Lynch runs for 60 yards and a score, while DeAndre Washington adds 60 combined yards and a receiving TD. Derek Carr throws for 240 yards and two more touchdowns to Michael Crabtree and Seth Roberts. Kenyan Drake leads the Dolphins backfield with 80 yards, with Damien Williams adding 50 yards and a TD. Jay Cutler throws for 220 yards, finding Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills in the end zone. Raiders, 34-24

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (+3), 42.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:25 pm EDT

The Story: You can't say the Bills aren't trying. The Kelvin Benjamin trade gives them a second big, physical wideout to pair with Jordan Matthews and help perk up an attack that is one of only five in the NFL averaging less than 200 passing yards a game. Don't expect him to make much impact in this one, though, given that he's had approximately zero days of practice to learn the system. The Jets are starting to look like who we thought they were, losing three consecutive, but Josh McCown's solid play gave them a puncher's chance in all three of those games. If he throws at least two TDs in Thursday's contest, he becomes the first Jets QB to toss multiple scores in five straight games since Joe Namath, which sums up decades of organizational futility as well as any single trivia nugget I've ever seen. It'd also be an impressive feat, considering the Bills have only given up six passing TDs this season, tied with the Steelers for second fewest in the league.

The Skinny:
•2017 BUF offense: 21.9 PPG (T-15th), 124.6 rushing yds/gm (T-8th), 191.9 passing yds/gm (30th), 19 sacks allowed (T-17th), three turnovers (T-1st)
•2017 NYJ offense: 19.6 PPG (21st), 95.8 rushing yds/gm (T-22nd), 233.9 passing yds/gm (19th), 25 sacks allowed (T-27th), 14 turnovers (T-27th)
•2017 BUF defense: 16.4 PPG allowed (3rd), 80.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 277.3 passing yds/gm allowed (29th), 13 sacks (T-24th), 17 turnovers (T-1st)
•2017 NYJ defense: 23.3 PPG allowed (22nd), 128.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (27th), 241.5 passing yds/gm allowed (17th), 11 sacks (T-30th), 13 turnovers (T-6th)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 BUF, average score BUF 27-NYJ 22, average margin of victory 15 points. Only four of those 11 games have had margins of victory within one score, but three of them have come in the last five.
•LeSean McCoy career stats versus NYJ, five games: 78.6 rushing yds/gm, three TDs, 5.0 YPC, 17 catches on 19 targets for 128 yards
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Shady stays hot, piling up 130 combined yards and a score. Tyrod Taylor throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Matthews. Matt Forte leads the Jets' backfield with 60 combined yards and a receiving touchdown, but he also coughs up a fumble that Shaq Lawson returns for a TD. McCown throws for 260 yards and doesn't match Broadway Joe's franchise record. Bills, 27-13

Last week's record: 11-2, 8-5 ATS, 7-6 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 70-49, 51-64-4 ATS, 59-58-2 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS