Matchup Edge: Shootout in Dallas

Giants vs. Rams

Open: 43.5 O/U, LAR -3.5
Press time: 42 O/U, LAR -4

It's a long trip for the Rams from Los Angeles, but the matchup in most regards appears clearly in their favor. With Janoris Jenkins out, Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods should see favorable coverage as Cooper Kupp presumably deals with the very tough Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the slot. Jared Goff's first inclination is to look to Kupp, but perhaps he won't often have that option if DRC is as good as usual. That could funnel a few extra targets to Woods and Watkins, who can both get open against the corners they'll see (very open in Watkins' case). Tyler Higbee is a favorite DFS tournament consideration for me against a Giants defense allowing 43 receptions for 508 yards (7.9 YPT) and eight touchdowns to tight ends. With three pass catchers profiling well in the matchup, I like Goff's projection as well.

If Goff and the Rams passing game are in sound shape, it should improve an already good projection for Todd Gurley. His rushing outlook is decent against a Giants defense allowing 4.1 yards per carry to running backs, and a good chunk of his rushing activity could occur in favorable field position if Goff plays well. With six or more targets in four games this year, Gurley also carries significant upside as a pass catcher against a Giants defense allowing 7.3 yards per target to running backs.

The Rams pass rush might rattle Eli Manning a bit – watch out for Robert Quinn to go on a sack spree soon – and even if the pass rush doesn't get to him Eli will still have a rough on-paper matchup against a Rams defense allowing 7.0 YPA along with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions. It's further concerning for Eli that the Rams have been tough against opposing tight ends, yielding just 6.1 yards per target on just 39 targets in seven games. It's not enough to scare you off Evan Engram, who might average over eight targets per game the rest of the way, but it might tank Eli's projection if Engram isn't as efficient as usual. Sterling Shepard and Roger Lewis don't profile especially well against a corner crew allowing 7.6 YPT and a completion percentage of 55.0 to wide receivers.

The ground might be where the Giants have the best shot at moving the ball consistently. Orleans Darkwa has 221 yards and a touchdown over his last three games on 38 attempts (5.8 YPC), and I like his chances of producing against a defense allowing 4.5 yards per carry to running backs. He's been splitting snaps relatively evenly with Wayne Gallman, but my suspicion is Gallman's presence is largely linked to passing situations. In other words, I think Darkwa would be the lead back in a competitive game or one where the Giants have the lead, while Gallman would poach snaps at an elevated rate if the Rams pull ahead early. Still, it's hard to see Darkwa playing more than about 40 percent of the snaps, which leaves him with a volatile projection.

Philadelphia vs. Denver

Open: 44 O/U, PHI -7
Press time: 41.5 O/U, PHI -7.5

The wait is over! Brock is back folks, just in time to stand tall on the road against one of the league's most feared pass rushes, on a defense allowing just 6.8 yards per pass and nine interceptions to 13 touchdowns. I'm going to assume the Philadelphia pass defense stats are going to look even better after this one.

Despite the potential imminent wreckage of the next Osweiler era, Demaryius Thomas projects reasonably well in most scenarios. Even if Osweiler is terrible, he should throw it Thomas' way at least eight times. During Osweiler's seven-game stretch as starter in 2015, Thomas saw 74 targets, resulting in 488 yards (6.6 YPT) and five touchdowns. It looks like Emmanuel Sanders (ankle) has a good shot of playing, but it's hard to believe he would be at full strength. A.J. Derby might have some long-shot appeal for those desperately looking for tight end help – the Eagles are allowing 7.2 YPT to tight ends so far.

C.J. Anderson projects poorly in this, a game against a tough run defense while playing for a team that figures to fall behind in the first half. The Eagles have been preposterously tough against the run, allowing just 3.0 yards per carry to running backs at a rate of 42 yards per game. Running backs have done more through the air against Philadelphia, averaging 48.1 yards per game (5.5 YPT).

You hate the setup for Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount, who might split the workload against a defense allowing just 2.9 yards per carry to running backs. Carson Wentz will have to be the hero against a similarly tough pass defense, but his ability to provoke broken plays, combined with what projects for better field position than Denver, gives him a chance to accumulate some pass attempt volume at least. His main chance of beating the Broncos is probably through the tight end position, where Zach Ertz profiles well despite a hamstring issue. It's tough to run against or complete wide receiver targets against the Broncos, but against tight ends they've allowed 8.8 yards per target.

New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay

Open: 50 O/U, NO -7
Press time: 52 O/U, NO -6.5

Jameis Winston faces a formidable pass defense on paper, but Mike Evans is the toughest test to date for elite rookie corner Marshon Lattimore – a chief reason the Saints pass defense has improved so much. If Evans can somewhat match Lattimore, Winston could otherwise seize a matchup advantage as DeSean Jackson, who has a career YPT of 11.2 in domes, faces off against the lesser Saints corners. The Saints have been tough on tight ends this year, allowing just 6.7 yards per target on just 39 targets (tied for third-fewest in the league), but Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard are so good that the matchup isn't intimidating. Usage is the only concern for Howard, whereas Brate I'd feel comfortable firing up in any scenario.

If Winston can keep the Buccaneers in the game, Doug Martin should be able to produce in this setting. He's running very well this year despite some tough matchups, and now he gets a shot against a defense allowing 4.5 yards per carry to running backs. He's more of a GPP consideration in DFS, but I think Martin is one of the top running backs for season-long formats this week.

Drew Brees has been very good in real football terms, but in fantasy he has disappointed in recent home games. That should change here so long as the Tampa Bay offense plays up to its potential. Brees hasn't done more at home because he hasn't needed to, but if Winston keeps Tampa competitive here this might project as Brees' best game of the year. Tampa's run defense might be just good enough (3.7 YPC allowed to running backs) to encourage a more pass-happy approach generally, and if so Brees should torch a pass defense allowing 8.7 yards per target to wide receivers at a completion percentage of 65.8. Michael Thomas is the obvious leader in projected production among Saints wideouts, but it's also a great matchup for Ted Ginn and Brandon Coleman.

Despite Tampa's competence against the run, Mark Ingram carries one of the top projections at his position for this week. His two fumbles from last week shouldn't matter with just Trey Edmunds and Daniel Lasco behind Ingram and Alvin Kamara on the depth chart. Kamara is my preferred target in DFS, because he lines up enough at receiver that he could get in on the torching of Tampa's secondary.

Jacksonville vs. Cincinnati

Open: 39.5 O/U, JAC -2
Press time: 39 O/U, JAC -5.5

Two of the league's best defenses square off with two of the league's most problematic offenses. Both of these defenses limit yardage and points – Jacksonville respectively ranks sixth and first in those categories, while Cincinnati ranks fifth and ninth – and neither team shows the ability to throw reliably. That means falling behind even a little bit could be a life sentence. So the the question is, who is going to establish a lead first? If neither team can throw in a game where one side allows 5.7 YPA (JAC) and the other 6.2, then rushing production and turnover advantage should singularly decide the outcome.

As the home team and the owner of the league's most productive pass rush (33 sacks) facing off against a Cincinnati offensive line that ranks 30th in Football Outsiders' pass-blocking metrics, Jacksonville would appear the best bet to force turnovers. They've intercepted ten passes this year, whereas Cincinnati's bend-but-don't-break scheme has forced just five relative to nine passing touchdowns allowed. Jacksonville's turnover margin sits at +8, good for third-best in the league, while Cincinnati is way down at minus-10, which ranks third-worst.

With all that taken into account, I think we project Leonard Fournette to eventually break the Bengals defense so long as Jacksonville maintains the upper hand throughout the game. While the Bengals have held running backs to 3.7 yards per carry and 4.9 yards per target, a game where Cincinnati turns the ball over and struggles to generate yardage is one where Fournette is likely approaching 25 carries against an increasingly tired defense, and potentially on short fields. I would guess Fournette gets to something like 110 yards from scrimmage and at least one touchdown as long as he gets to 20 carries.

For Cincinnati, Joe Mixon has an interesting matchup against a Jaguars defense allowing 5.3 yards per carry, but his workload in uncertain and the Bengals offensive line ranks 30th in Football Outsiders' run-blocking metrics. You're still using A.J. Green in season-long formats, but maybe only there.

Carolina vs. Atlanta

Open: 44 O/U, CAR -1.5
Press time: 42.5 O/U, ATL -2.5

Julio Jones has yet to get going, but perhaps this is a spot where he finally does it. He had his 300-yard game against the Panthers last year – though that was in Atlanta and with top Carolina corner James Bradberry playing as a rookie. The way this all still results in a breakout game for Julio is if the play of the Carolina defense forces the Falcons to throw to Julio as the result of Luke Kuechly eliminating Devonta Freeman and Telvin Coleman on the ground, and Austin Hooper in the passing game. You're still using those two running backs as you normally would in season-long formats, but I'm not optimistic about them as DFS options. Otherwise, the Carolina defense seems quite imposing for an Atlanta offense that seemingly doesn't know what it's doing.

Of course, things don't look much better for the Carolina offense. With Kelvin Benjamin gone and Greg Olsen still out, the hopes of the Carolina passing game rest on Devin Funchess and Christian McCaffrey, who respectively own per-target averages of 6.2 and 5.7. Both project for double-digit targets in this one, though, so they're both sound assets this week in PPR scoring. I'm not sure whether I buy the idea of those two being able to carry Cam Newton to a useful box score. If Newton comes through for his owners, it's probably because of rushing production. I'm not chasing Russell Shepard or Curtis Samuel in this game.

Houston vs. Indianapolis

Open: 48 O/U, HOU -11
Press time: 45.5 O/U, HOU -6.5

This game is too depressing to talk about after Deshaun Watson's injury. I can see using Tom Savage as a morbid desperation play in DFS tournaments due to his low price, but I'm still convinced he's really bad. If he's useful, it's probably a one-week thing dictated by the dome setting against one of the league's worst pass defenses. DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller are thus both sound season-long plays despite the Watson injury, I think, but I'm not buying them in DFS at their Watson-presumed prices.

Savage's return to the lineup could lead Houston to lean more on the run, but if Savage struggles enough otherwise, it might offset the share increase with decreased play count if drives aren't extended as well. Lamar Miller projects well in any case against a defense allowing 4.1 yards per carry and nearly ten yards per target to running backs.

On the Colts side, the same as always is the case – the considerations pretty much end at Jack Doyle and T.Y. Hilton. Doyle's target volume makes him viable in pretty much all scenarios, especially in PPR scoring. Hilton is a season-long WR3 type and a tournament consideration in DFS. Hilton's targets should go up in this game against a defense allowing 9.3 yards per target to wide receivers. It's also worth noting that Hilton has a career YPT of 9.7 when playing in dome or retractable roof stadiums.

Tennessee vs. Baltimore

Open: 43 O/U, TEN -4.5
Press time: 43 O/U, TEN -3.5

With Brandon Williams back on the Baltimore defensive line, it's probably time to drop the idea that Baltimore can be beat on the ground. And yet, I expect Mike Mularkey to direct the collective head of the Titans offense to bash into that brick wall over and over until the situation is dire enough to force abandonment of the run. DeMarco Murray should probably be in season-long lineups, but I'm not chasing him in DFS despite some tempting prices.

With Marcus Mariota nearing full health and a killer group of pass catchers at his disposal, I don't understand why this offense wouldn't be able to thrive through the air. But the Titans offense looks like complete garbage to me lately, and I'm not convinced that they play to the sum of their talent against a Baltimore defense that is much better coached than the Tennessee offense is. Corey Davis is in any case a candidate to lead the team in targets in his first game back, especially if Delanie Walker (calf/ankle) can't go. If Walker can't go, I would like rookie Jonnu Smith as a tight end streamer against a Baltimore defense that's much more vulnerable in the middle than the boundary. I also like Eric Decker's chances of doing something out of the slot for GPP owners. I'm off Rishard Matthews and Davis for the most part.

I can imagine Jeremy Maclin doing something against a Tennessee pass defense that's struggled with slot targets, but I still wouldn't approach Joe Flacco. Alex Collins is the most interesting part of the Baltimore offense, and he'll get a tough test against a Tennessee defense that's allowing 3.4 yards per carry to running backs. If Mariota struggles, it could get Collins enough volume to crack Tennessee's otherwise sound run defense.

Seattle vs. Washington

Open: 45 O/U, SEA -6
Press time: 45 O/U, SEA -7

This game looks like it might be a bit ugly. The temperature is supposed to be below 40 degrees, and with the possibility of chilly precipitation. Both teams are beat up, and neither can run the ball a bit. So the game should come down to quarterback play, right?

If that's the case, you would consider the venue and Russell Wilson's general superiority to give Seattle heavy favorite status, especially with Duane Brown added at left tackle. Brown will need to step up right away against Preston Smith and Ryan Kerrigan. But so long as the weather doesn't derail Wilson – and you would think that less likely to occur with Wilson than with Kirk Cousins – he should find his way to productivity through volume if nothing else. Seattle's run game is a complete zero right now.

When Wilson does throw it, there are four candidates to produce. Doug Baldwin is the best player and perhaps carries the best projection in a vacuum, but that he gets the tough slot coverage of Kendall Fuller limits him to season-long and DFS tournaments for me. Paul Richardson, Tyler Lockett and Jimmy Graham might be more appealing when adjusting for price. Richardson is the hottest name of the group, but I'm inclined to fade him because I don't think his tape is as good as his production. For a 180-pound wideout, his separation ability doesn't show up to me, and the touchdowns carrying his fantasy value struck me as largely fluky outcomes. I like Lockett more. But it's probably Graham who carries the second-best raw projection behind Baldwin, as the Washington defense is allowing 10.0 yards per target to tight ends.

I would normally take this as a disaster matchup for Cousins regardless of the weather, but injuries on the Seattle defense have changed things. Not only is Earl Thomas (hamstring) out, but Bobby Wagner (hamstring), Kam Chancellor (ankle), and Sheldon Richardson (oblique) are all questionable, too. Wagner and Chancellor's injuries improve the outlooks for Chris Thompson and Vernon Davis, the only two Washington players I can imagine doing anything given Seattle's cornerback personnel. I do like Davis quite a lot in all scenarios despite the tough matchup – he might see 12 targets with Jordan Reed out and Jamison Crowder questionable.

Even with Seattle hurting, I'm inclined to think the venue, weather, and the injuries to the Washington offensive line – Trent Williams, Spencer Long, and Shawn Lauvao all out – leave Cousins as a heavy underdog to Wilson.

San Francisco vs. Arizona

Open: 39 O/U, ARZ -1
Press time: 39.5 O/U, ARZ -2.5

What should have been an easy win here for Arizona was thrown into peril by Carson Palmer's broken arm, forcing Arizona to turn to Drew Stanton, who is often depressingly bad. In completing just 5-of-14 passes for 66 yards and an interception against the Rams last week, Stanton didn't inspire much hope for Larry Fitzgerald and the other Cardinals pass catchers, even with the 49ers allowing over 8.0 yards per target to wide receivers. If you went with an Arizona receiver, though, it would be Fitzgerald. Otherwise, the best candidate to produce as a pass catcher might be Andre Ellington against a defense allowing 7.9 yards per target to running backs.

Generally, though, the best bet to do anything useful for Arizona would be Adrian Peterson. He fell back to earth against the Rams, totaling just 21 yards on 11 carries against what should have been a vulnerable Rams run defense, but the hope in this case is that rookie 49ers quarterback C.J. Beathard struggles enough that the Arizona defense dictates a field position and turnover margin advantage for the Cardinals, giving Peterson a chance to accumulate volume, perhaps within scoring range.

For the 49ers, Trent Taylor might see a healthy target count with Pierre Garcon (neck) out, but it's hard to see him doing much until Jimmy Garoppolo is on the field. Carlos Hyde should get a chance at volume if Stanton struggles, but it's hard to imagine him getting much done against an Arizona defense allowing 3.5 yards per carry to running backs, especially if Beathard's limitations allow the Cardinals to sell out against the run.

Dallas vs. Kansas City

Open: 48.5 O/U, DAL -1
Press time: 53.5 O/U, DAL -2.5

This game should be a shootout. Both offenses project as complete mismatches for both defenses, and an abundance of star power on each side sets up for a scenario every bit as explosive as the New Orleans game, in my opinion.

With Ezekiel Elliott active, he's an undisputed top-two projection at running back this week. The Chiefs are allowing 4.5 yards per carry to running backs, and Elliott should take full advantage with the Dallas offensive line ranking fifth in run blocking in Football Outsiders' metrics.

Dak Prescott should be both efficient and explosive relative to whatever his usage, and the plausibility of a shootout scenario raises his projected usage to the point that he carries a high-floor, high-ceiling projection against a defense that is exceedingly easy to throw against whenever Marcus Peters is avoided. Kansas City still has shown no willingness to move Peters around, so Dez Bryant should run the majority of his routes against Terrance Mitchell and Phillip Gaines, who should prove hopeless against him. The Chiefs are allowing 8.2 yards per target to wide receivers, and those two are the reason why. As Dak goes so goes Jason Witten, who carries one of the top tight end projections of the week against a Chiefs defense allowing 9.6 yards per target to tight ends.

Alex Smith's play this year is a big reason why I'm fully sold on the shootout scenario here. The Dallas defense isn't at all a pushover against the pass – David Irving and Demarcus Lawrence could very well be the best tackle-end duo in the league, and the pass defense has done a good job of limiting the per-target yardage of receivers at 6.8 YPT – but Smith has played so well and I expect the playcalling to be so aggressive that tempo and volume should dictate a strong box score, even if the Dallas defense makes its share of plays. Andy Reid is a master gameplanner and I expect him to put something good together against a Dallas organization he knows better than most.

If Smith has a strong game, I think it means a strong game for Tyreek Hill, whose YPT of 10.1 demands targets in any high-scoring scenario. Travis Kelce is arguably the top tight end projection of the week despite the fact that Dallas is allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. This appears mostly volume-related – they're allowing 7.6 yards per target to tight ends. Not that a matchup ever matters much for Kelce, anyway. Demarcus Robinson is a player I take for a marginal talent, but he's playing almost every snap and saw eight targets two weeks ago.

Because I consider Kansas City the favorite in this game, Kareem Hunt is my top running back for the week. Dallas is allowing 4.4 yards per carry and 6.6 yards per target to running backs, so I'm penciling in Hunt for something like 120 yards and a touchdown from scrimmage as a sort of middle-case scenario.

Miami vs. Oakland

Open: 43.5 O/U, OAK -2.5
Press time: 44 O/U, OAK -3

Miami's offense ranked last in the league in yards and points per game, and then they traded Jay Ajayi. It's hard to see this improving. The return of DeVante Parker (ankle) could be a significant help, as he was averaging 8.4 yards per target while seeing nine, ten, and eight targets in his three full games. Who knows how close to 100 percent he is, but Parker profiles as a WR2 type in this matchup if he is at full health – the Raiders are allowing 8.7 yards per target to receivers so far. Jarvis Landry might primarily see corner Travis Carrie in the slot, but even as potentially Oakland's top corner, Carrie isn't a frightening matchup for Landry, who could see 15 targets with Ajayi gone. It feels wrong, but I guess I can see some GPP/streaming upside with Cutler given how strong the projections are for Landry/Parker.

Kenyan Drake is the top pick to replace Ajayi, but I think his skill set is rather limited. An explosive and quick open-field runner capable of catching passes, Drake provides some playmaking ability, but he's raw if not unnatural as a running back. He has a habit of seeing the game as a series of one-on-one faceoffs against tacklers rather than a full field to be interpreted. I compared him to a running back version of Brandon Tate and I still stand by it. Damien Williams will also see a lot of snaps, but I think the two will prove ineffective to the point that at least some of Ajayi's past usage gets channeled through Cutler and especially Landry.

The Miami defense is allowing 4.1 yards per carry to running backs this year, so someone out of Marshawn Lynch, DeAndre Washington, and Jalen Richard should be able to put some chunk of production together. I don't feel like guessing which one.

The Dolphins might be more vulnerable through the air, and I think their cornerback personnel can be consistently beaten by Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Particularly if the departure of Ajayi forces Miami to call more pass plays, I think this should prove a fruitful setting for the previously mentioned wideouts and Derek Carr. The Dolphins are allowing just 6.0 yards per target to tight ends, but Jared Cook is lining up at receiver often enough that I think he's still in play in season-long and GPP scenarios.

Green Bay vs. Detroit

Open: 43 O/U, PK
Press time: 43.5 O/U, GB -2

Matthew Stafford has a career home quarterback rating of 90.5 at 7.4 yards per attempt, but a career outdoor rating of 82.6 at 6.8 yards per attempt. This game will more than likely be under 40 degrees, too. I don't expect him to be efficient. Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are getting enough target volume and big enough shares of the Detroit offense in general that they both are worth starting in season-long formats at the least. The Packers are allowing 8.5 yards per target to opposing wide receivers, which gives Jones and Tate a safe projection in the 80-yard range with the potential for more.

Ameer Abdullah petitioned for additional red-zone work, and it seems worth a shot – Stafford is third in the league with 38 red-zone pass attempts, yet ranks 19th with just six touchdowns, which is behind the likes of Trevor Siemian, Blake Bortles, Andy Dalton, and Eli Manning. His red-zone completion percentage of 36.6 ranks ahead of only the likes of Jacoby Brissett and DeShone Kizer. If the Green Bay offense struggles, Abdullah projects reasonably well against a Packers defense allowing 4.1 yards per carry and 5.9 yards per target to running backs.

Brett Hundley has really struggled so far, and this might be his last start if he can't show well against a Detroit defense with a defanged pass rush. Hundley's generally poor field awareness is exacerbated by his particularly poor pocket senses, but with just 13 sacks on the year Detroit might give him enough time for his arm strength and accuracy to manifest as a passer. I'm not particularly optimistic, though – the Lions have intercepted as many passes (10) as they've allowed for touchdowns. Against a Detroit defense allowing 7.6 yards per target to receivers, I think Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams are WR3 types in season-long formats. The Packers might need to cut Randall Cobb this offseason.

If Stafford struggles as he often does outdoors, then the Green Bay running game should at least have an opportunity to produce. Whether one of Aaron Jones or Ty Montgomery establishes a lead over the other, or if the two merely make an even split, I can't guess. Jones has of course been impressive and I've always liked him as a prospect, but I still think Montgomery has some of the most raw running talent in the league, and I can't quite see Jones pushing him aside. Still, I think you consider Jones the favorite for now.