Matchup Edge: Dark Horse to Dominate

Indianapolis vs. Pittsburgh

Open: 43 O/U, PIT -9.5
Press time: 45 O/U, PIT -10

Le'Veon Bell averages 95.7 yards (4.7 YPC) rushing per game when on the road, versus 78.1 yards (4.0 YPC) at home. He has 22 rushing touchdowns in 29 road games, versus nine in 26 home games. Now he gets a Colts defense allowing 4.2 yards per carry to running backs – 4.7 in their last four games – and 9.6 yards per target to opposing running backs. He's always chalky in settings like this, but Bell carries an enormous projection this week.

Antonio Brown is always arguably the top wide receiver projection in any given week, and the same applies here as he gets a dome matchup against a Colts team that just cut Vontae Davis. Juju Smith-Schuster should be a trendy target against a Colts defense allowing 8.5 yards per target to opposing wide receivers, but I'll be avoiding him in DFS. His last two touchdowns were plays that greatly inflated his output, yet both plays were objectively fluky. Juju has a lot going for him, but 97-yard touchdowns aren't his bread and butter. Great prospect, but I'll be fading for game theory reasons.

As much as Bell, Brown, and Smith-Schuster all carry fine projections, I won't be pursuing Ben Roethlisberger. The matchup should dictate a useful enough box score, but Roethlisberger still looks bad to me, and I'd rather go at other quarterbacks, especially if Bell does most of the heavy lifting against this generally harmless opponent.

I love T.Y. Hilton, and he always has some objective GPP utility as long as he's playing at home, where he's averaging 82.4 yards per game (9.6 YPT) for his career, but the matchup is awfully discouraging. The Steelers have allowed the ninth-fewest completions of 20-plus yards (21), and the seventh-fewest passes of over 40 yards (three), allowing just 6.9 yards per target to wide receivers generally. It's also a tough draw for Jack Doyle against a defense allowing 6.0 YPT to tight ends, but that's not so bad for a player who could easily see 12 targets.

I have no interest in the Indianapolis running game. The Steelers are allowing 4.7 yards per carry to running backs on the year, but just 3.3 yards per carry since Week 6. In a game where Pittsburgh is safely projected to establish a big lead, the problematic projections of Frank Gore and Marlon Mack are compounded by the possibility that Indianapolis is forced to abandon the run.

Washington vs. Minnesota

Open: 42.5 O/U, MIN -2.5
Press time: 40.5 O/U, MIN -1.5

This game looks like an ugly one. Two good defenses, two questionable running games, with a backup quarterback on one side and a beat up offensive line on the other.

Everson Griffen (foot) was only able to log one limited practice this week, which is certainly good news for Kirk Cousins against what is normally a fearsome pass rush. But Cousins' own line – while healthier than it was a week ago – is quite beat up in its own right. The matchup is a decidedly bad one for Cousins in any case – the Vikings have allowed just 6.3 yards per pass while surrendering eight touchdowns versus seven interceptions. While the Washington offensive line has improved its health, the health of Cousins' pass catchers remains a significant question with Jordan Reed (hamstring) and Jamison Crowder (hamstring) nicked up. The best bet to produce among Washington pass catchers might be Vernon Davis. It's hard to like Josh Doctson much if he catches Xavier Rhodes.

Chris Thompson remains the best bet to produce among Washington running backs, but the matchup is also brutal for him. Minnesota is allowing 3.5 yards per carry to running backs, and particularly problematic for Thompson, just 4.45 yards per target to running backs.

Jerick McKinnon is the only running back I wouldn't feel queasy about starting in season-long formats, and I think he has GPP viability in DFS. I probably won't be picking him, but if the Washington offense struggles as much as it should, then the Minnesota running game should have a chance for volume. I don't expect Latavius Murray to do much with his, but McKinnon's explosiveness gives him a chance to salvage his fantasy day in a single play. It still isn't a great matchup for him, but Washington's allowance of 3.8 yards per carry and 6.1 yards per target to running backs can be overcome with the right volume and field positioning.

Case Keenum is a good backup and probably nothing more. Against a Washington defense with strong cornerback personnel, it's hard to like his chances of doing much for fantasy owners. Josh Norman is a brutal draw for whoever gets him, and Kendall Fuller has been one of the best slot corners in the league this year. You have to think Adam Thielen will see a lot of Fuller, and Stefon Diggs a lot of Norman. I still think those two are too good to rule out in DFS tournaments, and you'd need a strong roster to consider benching either in season-long formats. But it's Kyle Rudolph who has the most favorable matchup among Minnesota pass catchers – Washington has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends while giving up 637 yards and four touchdowns on 67 targets (9.5 YPT).

Detroit vs. Cleveland

Open: 44 O/U, DET -9.5
Press time: 43.5 O/U, DET -10.5

Cleveland has only two players I care about. One is Duke Johnson, who you probably have good reason to use as a flex play in PPR formats, and the other is David Njoku, who I think is a justifiable tournament pick in DFS. The Lions have seen just 41 targets to tight ends, but they allowed 459 yards on them. Duke can probably run on a Haloti Ngata-less Detroit front, but his low carry volume means he will as always need to do his damage as a pass catcher. The Lions have allowed 6.2 yards per target to running backs, so Duke can probably do something like 45 yards on seven targets.

For Detroit, pretty much all the usual suspects are in play. Matthew Stafford, Golden Tate, and Marvin Jones are obviously strong chalk plays against a Browns defense allowing 8.3 yards per target to wide receivers. With the Browns on pace to give up 12 receiving touchdowns to tight ends, both Darren Fells and Eric Ebron are in play despite their significant risk.

The Detroit backfield looks less likely to produce, as Ameer Abdullah is increasingly making clear the fact that he shouldn't be a starter in the NFL. You're probably starting him in season-long formats just because he might see goal-line work, but yardage should be tough to come by against a Browns defense allowing just 2.9 yards per carry to running backs. Perhaps Theo Riddick can do some damage a second week in a row given that the Browns allow 6.4 yards per target to running backs.

Tampa Bay vs. Jets

Open: 41 O/U, TB -1.5
Press time: 43.5 O/U, NYJ -2.5

On paper, this should be one of the more fruitful fantasy matchups of this slate. Neither pass defense is particularly good, and the Tampa Bay pass defense in particular isn't good. Then both defenses have significant injuries to account for – top Jets corner Morris Claiborne (foot) is less than 100 percent, and dominant defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson might miss the game with shoulder and foot troubles. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, will be without cornerback Robert McClain (hamstring), while end Robert Ayers is questionable with ankle and calf issues.

Both quarterbacks in this game have considerable fantasy appeal, and not even because of the revenge narrative as Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick star in a faceoff between two journeymen against their former teams. McCown has been very good in general this year, and now he gets a shot at a Tampa defense allowing 7.9 yards per pass and 14 touchdowns compared to five interceptions. Fitzpatrick faces a Jets defense allowing less yardage (7.0 YPA) but a more favorable scoring rate with 19 touchdowns allowed.

The Buccaneers have been particularly bad at covering wide receivers, allowing 8.6 yards per target. The explosive Robby Anderson is the favorite play for attacking that, but Jermaine Kearse is also a mainstream option for me this week. He's clearly behind Anderson in the pecking order, but if the Tampa winds deter McCown at all, Kearse may be the preferred option as the team's primary short/intermediate receiver. Austin Seferian-Jenkins also gets in on the revenge narrative against the team that drafted and cut him. The Jets use ASJ as a checkdown specialist, but his reliability makes him a mainstream option against a Buccaneers defense allowing over eight yards per target to tight ends.

With Matt Forte out, Bilal Powell has one of the better running back projections in this slate. I don't think the Buccaneers run defense is bad, but on a day where McCown should keep the offense moving, Powell projects well for scoring opportunity, and his adeptness as a pass catcher opens the possibility of big production from scrimmage. Elijah McGuire should also approach ten touches, but I don't know if the upside is high enough to justify the risk in DFS tournaments. I tend to think of McGuire as more of a flex play in season-long formats.

Doug Martin is the other running back of note, but how can we trust him as a fantasy option after his soon-to-be-fired coach benched him after eight carries last week? Martin has looked good to me all year, but his coach is prohibitively incompetent.

Fitzpatrick and the Tampa Bay passing game have some amount of intrigue, though. His mobility gives additional upside or/and some cushion for the turnovers he'll probably be guilty of. As much as Mike Evans' suspension is a big strike against Fitzpatrick's projection, I would imagine things will work out if he just throws the ball to DeSean Jackson ten or more times. I'm still a big believer in Jackson, and although Fitzpatrick probably can't hit him downfield, Jackson is still better at short and intermediate routes than people think. I'm not really on Adam Humphries, but I might make a DFS tournament lineup with Chris Godwin, who should have been Tampa Bay's third receiver all year and projects as an eventual Pro Bowl talent to me. It's an aggressive longshot play in any context, however. The most solid bet among Tampa Bay pass catchers would be Cameron Brate against a Jets defense allowing 7.2 yards per target.

Chicago vs. Green Bay

Open: 38 O/U, CHI -3
Press time: 37.5 O/U, CHI -5.5

Disgusting. The Packers offense is a wreck with Brett Hundley at quarterback, and I think it's pretty clear that this will be his last start. I expect him to get pulled in this game by the middle of the third quarter. That I doubt Joe Callahan will be an improvement should tell you everything about how I evaluate Green Bay's pass catchers this week. The Chicago defense is superbly schemed and is more talented than people assumed. I think the Packers are on shutout watch.

For the Bears, Jordan Howard is the only mainstream consideration. This setting could prove quite favorable to him. That this is a divisional game with a storied rivalry means the Packers defense probably won't quit outright, but the burden of tackling Howard 30 or more times might make them more receptive to that course. Tarik Cohen is an interesting flex play in PPR for me this week – I would imagine this setting projects for some of his highest from-scrimmage usage in the remainder of the season.

Jacksonville vs. Chargers

Open: 41.5 O/U, JAC -3.5
Press time: 41 O/U, JAC -5

You're probably starting all of Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, and Hunter Henry in your season-long leagues, but I'll pass on all of them in DFS. Gordon is the most appealing of the three against a Jaguars defense allowing 5.0 yards per carry to running backs, and he'll hopefully be a bit faster after getting a bye week to let his knee and foot heal up. But I'm still worried that the Jaguars will be able to sell out against the run with impunity, and the game flow could otherwise go poorly for the Chargers offense.

You would rather throw at the middle of the Jaguars defense, where you can avoid Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, and that's where Allen and Henry play. But like I worry the Jaguars will be able to sell out against the run, I worry they'll be able to sell out their coverage resources against Allen in the slot. Philip Rivers is completely unable to throw more than 15 yards or so reliably, so Ramsey and Bouye should completely shut down their assignments. I'm talking like five targets combined, for zero receptions. For Allen I'm expecting something like 60 yards on 12 or more targets. Henry is the more viable DFS pick for me against a Jaguars defense allowing 7.0 YPT to tight ends.

While I consider Jacksonville a heavy favorite in this, I don't expect mainstream fantasy viability from anyone there but Leonard Fournette. Even if Blake Bortles is having one of his good days, it's hard to like him against a Chargers pass defense allowing just 6.8 yards per pass, and just 6.5 yards per target to wide receivers. If you buy the premise that the Jaguars won't need to throw much (I do), then it's hard to see DFS utility for Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns.

Fournette, though, is a candidate to be the top scorer at his position this week. He should be plenty fresh off his personal bye week, and no doubt itching to make up for lost time. Since I think he'll see favorable field positioning against a defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry and 6.8 yards per target to running backs.

Buffalo vs. New Orleans

Open: 48.5 O/U, NO -2.5
Press time: 48 O/U, NO -3

To me, this looks like a trap game for the Saints. They're good, but the Bills are tough, and they're tougher in Buffalo. Moreover, the way Buffalo plays defense could be a problem for a Saints offensive that is subtly void of explosiveness in its shift toward a more run-heavy approach than their reputation implies.

Still, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara project for such reliable usage that they remain two of the better running back projections this week, especially when considering the nature of the Bills run defense after the trade of the super talented Marcell Dareus. I just have trouble seeing the upside scenario for either player.

For Brees I find the matchup concerning. The Bills pass defense has been beaten lately, yes, but they're most beatable downfield, where the Saints generally are not all that active. The Saints have been a possession passing game to this point, and the press-heavy play of the Bills is best for stopping short targets that have defined Michael Thomas to this point. You're starting Brees and Thomas in season-long formats for sure, but I'll be fading the Saints in DFS.

Tyrod Taylor gets a tough draw against a Saints pass defense that's taken off under the lockdown coverage of rookie Marshon Lattimore, but his typical strength at home combined with his rushing ability makes Taylor a good play in most scenarios nonetheless, I think. Charles Clay (knee) should be back, and despite his injury he probably projects as Taylor's most reliable target. I don't expect Benjamin to do much against Lattimore, and I don't expect Jordan Matthews to do much otherwise. But I would go after Matthews before I would Benjamin.

The most likely standout from the Buffalo offense, as always, is LeSean McCoy. He gets a crack at a New Orleans defense allowing over four yards per carry to running backs, though they've conceded just three rushing touchdowns to running backs this year. Still, if you buy the premise that this is a trap game for New Orleans, you have to like McCoy as a tournament play at least.

Tennessee vs. Cincinnati

Open: 40.5 O/U, TEN -3.5
Press time: 40.5 O/U, TEN -4.5

I like Andy Dalton and A.J. Green in a game against a Tennessee pass defense that has respectable enough numbers at a glance, but has misleading stats after facing the likes of Baltimore, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Miami, and Jacksonville. Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson all torched this defense. That I expect the Cincinnati running game to go nowhere makes me feel that much better about Dalton and Green. Tyler Kroft is also a consideration, though the 6.4 YPT that Tennessee has allowed to tight ends is at least respectable.

I don't like anyone for Tennessee, but I guess DeMarco Murray, Rishard Matthews, and Delanie Walker all have their respective utilities. I just get a sinking feeling every time I watch the Titans offense.

Rams vs. Houston

Open: 47 O/U, LAR -10
Press time: 45.5 O/U, LAR -12

Tom Savage will get benched in this game or the Texans will score fewer than 14 points. T.J. Yates is bad, but he's better than Savage. Probably. No matter which quarterback is throwing, it's difficult to find much hope for DeAndre Hopkins or Will Fuller outside of season-long contexts. Savage in particular completely tanks against a decent pass rush, and the Rams certainly have that. The Rams' cornerback play, meanwhile, has been quite good this year, allowing just 7.3 yards per target.

If the Houston quarterbacks don't completely tank the offense, then perhaps Lamar Miller can do something against a Rams defense that's proven vulnerable to the run this year. The Rams are allowing 4.5 yards per carry and just under six yards per target to running backs, though they'll have the liberty of selling out to stop Miller since Savage can't complete passes.

Almost all of the productivity in this game should be on the Rams' side, where Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods project well against a Texans defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Sammy Watkins will be open all the time, but Jared Goff to this point has not found it sufficient reason to throw it at Watkins.

Todd Gurley is a good bet to find the end zone since Savage will leave the Houston defense with short fields to defend, but it otherwise looks like a brutal matchup for Gurley. The Texans are allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, conceding just 3.3 yards per carry and 4.0 yards per target to opposing backs. You're of course still starting him in all season-long scenarios, but I'm just not seeing the point in DFS.

San Francisco vs. Giants

Open: 42 O/U, SF -1
Press time: 42 O/U, NYG -2.5

As much as this game might look like a joke to the average fan, I'm thinking this might be the most profitable game on the slate. Yes, these two teams are hopeless. But the particular way they are hopeless could still be conducive to fantasy output, ugly or not. These are two bad defenses and two offenses that run more plays than other teams. Garbage time for everyone!

The main threat to that projection is a scenario where the Giants utterly quit on Ben McAdoo, failing to make the game competitive. But if not, Eli Manning would be a good bet to throw at least 40 passes, and as a result I like both Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard as high-floor options. Roger Lewis is also in play for me in deep leagues and DFS tournaments.

Orleans Darkwa's share of snaps is probably capped around 45 or so, but I really like his projection in this one and generally consider him one of the week's best plays at running back. He has 292 yards (5.4 YPC) in his last four games, and in this uptempo setting he projects for his highest usage of the year. If Darkwa gets to 20 carries against the 49ers, you have to like his chances of posting a strong total against a 49ers defense allowing a league high in fantasy points to opposing running backs. Wayne Gallman is a concern, but his lost fumble from last week should help stabilize Darkwa's snap count a bit.

C.J. Beathard is quarterback for another week, and while I'd rather see Jimmy Garoppolo for the projections of the 49ers pass catchers, Beathard at least has the arm strength to hit Marquise Goodwin and Aldrick Robinson far downfield, even if he lacks the accuracy to capitalize consistently. But with Trent Taylor out, Goodwin and Robinson are both great bets to see double-digit targets, and they're both very fast.

George Kittle's injury is another major missed opportunity – I would have invested heavily in DFS if he had played against the Giants' pitiful tight end coverage. But with him out, Garrett Celek is the starter. I'm tempted by the matchup and the playing time, but Celek has always been a blocking specialist. He caught just 14 passes in his four-year Michigan State career. It's definitely a risky play, though I'll probably get at least one share.

I'm worried that I'm excessively high on Carlos Hyde this week, on the other hand. The tempo and matchup couldn't be much better, and Hyde's projection isn't harmed in the scenario that the Giants just quit. All the better for him in that case. I think you can argue for Hyde as a top-three play at running back.

Atlanta vs. Dallas

Open: 53 O/U, ATL -3
Press time: 48.5 O/U, ATL -3

Dez Bryant logged just a limited practice with knee and ankle issues, which makes the Dallas offense a fade for me. He's hobbled, and the other receivers are bad. There may be some target volume worth chasing re: Terrance Williams or Cole Beasley, or maybe even Brice Butler, if Bryant sits. Otherwise, I would guess Jason Witten is the only safe bet to play competently among Dallas pass catchers. If Dak has a big game, I think it's because he got a lot done as a runner. He can definitely do it, but if he gets to 250 yards I'm guessing it's because he threw at least 35 passes. If it turns out that Bryant is actually in good health, I didn't say any of this.

Alfred Morris seems like the best bet to do anything among Dallas' active runners. The team has stood by him repeatedly as the top backup to Ezekiel Elliott, and while I'm skeptical of whether he'll be effective enough to get carries beyond halftime, Morris seems like the only Dallas back with any solid information regarding his intended role.

I consider Atlanta the favorite, so I like the chances of the running game seizing some significant amount of volume, especially if Julio Jones (ankle) is substantively limited. If Jones can't take up his usual usage, the Falcons might find it easiest to move the ball on the ground rather than lean more on Mohamed Sanu, Austin Hooper, and Taylor Gabriel. Although, all three of them have their own respective fantasy utilities in various scenarios – generally in a descending order of viability.

If Jones is limited and the other Atlanta pass catchers don't pick up his typical usage, it might set up as a scenario where both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman provide useful returns. Freeman in particular has seen his price in DFS drop rather low, and he should be a steal if he gets his workload back to the 20-touch territory it was in the season's first month.

Denver vs. New England

Open: 46.5 O/U, NE -7
Press time: 44.5 O/U, NE -7.5

Defanged as Denver might be these days, this still is a game with problematic matchup considerations for the Patriots, at least on offense. Chris Hogan is out, leaving New England with Brandin Cooks, Danny Amendola, and Phillip Dorsett as its top three wideouts. You would safely give the advantage to Chris Harris, Aqib Talib, and Bradley Roby. Throw in a tough Denver run defense, and it's difficult to project much production for a New England running game that might be below average. The Broncos are allowing 4.1 yards per carry to running backs in their last four games, though, so perhaps Dion Lewis can scrape something together if he gets something going as a pass catcher. Otherwise, you would imagine James White sees as much pass-catching work as usual with New England trying to counter the Denver pass rush.

At least Rob Gronkowski has a killer matchup against a Denver defense allowing 8.9 yards per target to opposing tight ends, leaving them tied for the second-most fantasy points allowed to tight ends. I suspect a big game is in store, but I'm still skeptical that New England scores more than 20 or 24 in this one.

Is the New England defense bad enough to let Brock Osweiler get to 21 or 27? It might be, especially if Emmanuel Sanders (ankle) and Demaryius Thomas (hamstring) are near full strength. Thomas has six touchdowns in eight Osweiler starts, and Sanders would make it tough for New England to sell out against Thomas if Sanders' ankle is healthy enough to let him pose his customary threat. It may be worth noting, however, that in their last three games (against Josh McCown, Matt Ryan, and Philip Rivers), the Patriots have allowed just 7.3 YPA and four touchdowns compared to three interceptions. That includes just 13 catches for 88 yards and a touchdown to tight ends on 17 targets against the likes of Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Austin Hooper, and Hunter Henry, so a big game from A.J. Derby isn't easily projected.

The Patriots might be vulnerable on the ground, but more than a third of the rushing yardage they've given up over the last three games was on an 87-yard Melvin Gordon run. They've otherwise allowed just 191 yards to running backs in that stretch on 56 carries (3.4 YPC). Regardless of how favorable the matchup might be for C.J. Anderson, it's hard to have much faith in him given how Devontae Booker keeps gaining steam.