This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.Two Sports Betting Ideas
I've picked every NFL game against the spread for the last 19 years, and if I've learned anything, it's that making money after paying the rake is hard. The NFL lines are usually pretty tight as it's so widely wagered on, and good information about the games is freely available to everyone. But I've been thinking about two potential areas those with better statsitical chops than me might be able to exploit.
(1) Team Volatility
One thing I've noticed is the point spread correlates almost 100 percent with the game's moneyline. That is, if the spread is 10, the implied moneyline (what you get when you average the favorite's and underdog's lines, thereby ironing out the rake) will give that team roughly an implied 83 percent chance to win. If the spread is nine, it'll be closer to 79 percent. This is virtually always the case. Put differently, you'll never see the nine-point favorite have a moneyline that gives it an i
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