Streaming Defenses: Picking a Week 12 Team Defense

Week 12 brought another mix of hits and misses for this space, though I will give myself some credit for identifying the highest scoring defense (Los Angeles Chargers) that was available on waivers in competitive leagues heading into the week. The Bengals also came through with 10 fantasy points, but the Packers (five points) Cardinals (four) and Saints (one) were all disappointing.

Once again left to search for that elusive consistency, I'm looking at a Week 12 slate that features an unusual alignment of solid teams playing at home against weak opponents. The Bengals, Steelers, Ravens, Eagles, Chiefs, Patriots and Falcons are all comfortable favorites in matchups against teams with struggling offenses. While the Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Kansas City defenses are owned in the vast majority of leagues, Cincinnati and New England are available in many formats, while Atlanta is widely available. For those willing to take a shot on a road team that brings a solid defense into a favorable matchup, the Panthers (at NYJ) and Chargers (at DAL) round out this week's list of recommendations.

Note: These recommendations are limited to D/ST units with under 60 percent ownership on Yahoo! as of Tuesday morning. All references to fantasy points are based on Yahoo! standard scoring.

Top Streaming Options for Week 12

Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Cleveland Browns)
42% Yahoo ownership

For a second straight week, Cincinnati will face the team that's given up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Cleveland moved past Denver into first/last place after handing out five turnovers, five sacks and a touchdown in Sunday's 19-7 loss to the Jaguars. The Browns have given up at least six fantasy points to every D/ST unit they've faced this season, despite playing just four of their first 10 games on the road. They allowed an average of 14.75 fantasy points in those four contests, only managing a respectable performance Week 3 in Indianapolis. Cleveland's implied total of 15 points is the second lowest this week, trailing only Green Bay's 13.5.

The Bengals defense isn't anything special, but it's plenty good enough to take advantage of this matchup, having previously put up eight fantasy points in a 31-7 road win over the Browns in Week 4. It's fair to expect double digits in a rematch back in Cincinnati, where the Bengals have averaged 8.5 fantasy points in only four games. They haven't been great when it comes to takeaways, but they rank 10th in points allowed (19.9 per game) and are tied for fourth in sacks (2.9 per game). Unfortunately, the run of favorable matchups comes to an end next week when the Steelers head to Cincinnati.

New England Patriots (vs. Miami Dolphins)
59% Yahoo ownership

The term 'sinking ship' might've been invented specifically with this Dolphins team in mind, as the holes in the hull were obvious even when they had a 4-2 record. When I went to the Dolphins-Ravens game back in Week 7, I told my dad that Miami was "4-2 going on 6-10". It appears I may have been a bit generous, as the Dolphins have since been outscored by 77 points while losing four in a row — 5-11 or 4-12 now looks like a real possibility. Only four teams have given up more fantasy points to opposing defenses, and I'll note that their worst performance of the year (that game in Baltimore) was the one game Matt Moore started, lest you think a QB switch might be a legitimate solution to the team's problems.

Regardless of whether Moore or Jay Cutler (concussion) gets the start, a rejuvenated New England defense figures to extend its streak of five straight games with at least seven fantasy points. The lack of a pass rush could be an issue come January, but it hasn't prevented the Patriots from holding six consecutive opponents to 17 points or less. Speaking of 17 points, that's how much the Patriots are favored by, with the line suggesting implied totals of Patriots 32.5 - Dolphins 15.5. The oddsmakers are fully on board with a blowout, and the Patriots defense should be usable again for a trip Buffalo in Week 13.

Carolina Panthers (at New York Jets)
55% Yahoo ownership

The Jets somewhat surprisingly have only given up the 11th most fantasy points to team defenses, but it's still best to view them as a top-10 matchup for our purposes. They've benefitted from a soft schedule that's about to get a whole lot more difficult over the final six weeks, and they've been fortunate to give up just one D/ST touchdown while surrendering 16 takeaways (tied for eighth most) and 32 sacks (tied for fourth most). Vegas seems to agree, giving the Jets an implied total of 18.25 points as four-point home underdogs this week.

The Panthers are 29th in the NFL with nine takeaways and tied for 18th with 23 sacks, but they've actually been pretty effective when not facing the Saints, Patriots, Eagles or Falcons. Carolina notched just two takeaways between those four matchups, otherwise averaging 10.7 fantasy points per game. The Panthers also are averaging 10.8 fantasy points on the road, partially as a result of facing three of the four aforementioned offensive juggernauts at home. This is strictly a one-week waiver pickup, as the Panthers should be dropped before they head to New Orleans in Week 13.

Los Angeles Chargers (at Dallas Cowboys)
26% Yahoo ownership

Forced to play without Ezekiel Elliott (suspension) and Tyron Smith (back) the past two weeks, Dallas gave up 16 fantasy points to Atlanta and 22 points to the Eagles. I'm not expecting a repeat of that elite production, but it's fair to hypothesize that the top-heavy Cowboys simply aren't very good when they're forced to play without two of their elite performers. Smith did say he plans to return for Thanksgiving, which likely would drop the Chargers from No. 10 to the 12-15 range in my weekly rankings.

It might come as a surprise to find out that the Chargers are tied for the sixth most fantasy points (9.9 per game) among defenses this season, having recovered from a lousy September to reach double digits in four of their last six games. The oft-mentioned duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram (19 combined sacks) will spell trouble for the Cowboys if Smith is absent or limited. Those looking ahead to next week should take note: the Chargers have a home game against the Browns in Week 13.

Atlanta Falcons (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
17% Yahoo ownership

Ryan Fitzpatrick took only two sacks and committed just one turnover in his first two starts, taking full advantage of favorable matchups against the Jets and Dolphins. He'll presumably need to be more aggressive this week, as the Bucs are listed as 10-point underdogs for a trip to Atlanta. Fitzpatrick has never been one to take a lot of sacks, but the trade off shows up in his interception rate, which has been league-average or worse (sometimes much worse) every season since 2008.

The Falcons obviously aren't a dominant defensive team, but they are tied for fourth in the league with 29 sacks, and they've managed at least six fantasy points in four straight games, including 16 against Dallas and 12 against Seattle the past two weeks. As 10-point home favorites against the aforementioned Fitzpatrick, the Falcons are in a good position to come up with two or three takeaways and possibly even a touchdown. There isn't much appeal beyond Week 12, as Sunday's favorable matchup is followed by games against the Vikings and Saints.

Honorable Mentions: New York Jets (vs. Carolina Panthers), Tennessee Titans (at Indianapolis Colts)

Week 12 D/ST Rankings

1. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. CLE)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. GB)
3. Baltimore Ravens (vs. HOU)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (vs. CHI)
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (at ARI)
6. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. BUF)
7. New England Patriots (vs. MIA)
8. Carolina Panthers (at NYJ)
9. Seattle Seahawks (at SF)
10. Los Angeles Chargers (at DAL)
11. Minnesota Vikings (at DET)
12. Atlanta Falcons (vs. TB)
13. New York Jets (vs. CAR)
14. Arizona Cardinals (vs. JAC)
15. Tennessee Titans (at IND)
16. Houston Texans (at BAL)
17. Washington Redskins (vs. NYG)
18. Denver Broncos (at OAK)
19. Detroit Lions (vs. MIN)
20. Dallas Cowboys (vs. LAC)
21. New Orleans Saints (at LAR)
22. San Francisco 49ers (vs. SEA)
23. Los Angeles Rams (vs. NO)
24. Indianapolis Colts (vs. TEN)
25. Buffalo Bills (at KC)
26. Green Bay Packers (at PIT)
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at ATL)
28. New York Giants (at WAS)
29. Oakland Raiders (vs. DEN)
30. Cleveland Browns (at CIN)
31. Chicago Bears (at PHI)
32. Miami Dolphins (at NE)

Looking Ahead to Week 13

The Chargers host the Browns.

The Patriots travel to Buffalo to face a team without an identity.

The Bears host the 49ers, though Jimmy Garoppolo may be starting by then.

The Packers welcome the Buccaneers to Lambeau Field.

The Titans get a home date with Tom Savage and the Texans.

The Saints play host to an inconsistent Carolina offense in the Superdome.