2018 Football Draft Kit: Sleepers & Busts
2018 Football Draft Kit: Sleepers & Busts

This article is part of our Football Draft Kit series.

Fantasy owners love to debate sleepers and busts. But the terms "sleeper" and "bust" do not accurately reflect the actual topic of the debate, nor do they accurately reflect the purpose of this article. So, let's be accurate and term it what it is – "undervalued" and "overvalued." The goal of this article is not to predict unknown players who will be great this year, nor is it to predict name-brand players who will be terrible. It is simply to identify players whose likely average draft position (ADP) makes them either undervalued or overvalued.

Like everything else in life, fantasy drafts are about opportunity cost — the potential gain given up by not drafting Player A to instead draft Player B. To determine that, owners must consider the costs and benefits of each player relative to his ADP. This article will help owners make those decisions. But remember, calling Christian McCaffrey overvalued, or a bust, does not mean he will be awful this year. It simply means his risk outweighs the likelihood that he will return his ADP value.

For our purposes, we limited "busts" to an ADP top-10 QB/TE or top-20 RB/WR who is likely to be overpriced.

UNDERVALUED

Marquise Goodwin, WR, 49Ers

The 49ers largely stood pat with their pass catchers this offseason, despite having 32-year-old Pierre Garcon, who is returning from a neck injury, as their presumed top target and untested second-year George Kittle as their starting tight end, both of whom are getting more

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