Survivor: Surviving Week 3

As you can see the Vikings are the prohibitive favorite and as such are massively (64%) owned. That might even understate the case as there are probably some re-buy pools wherein it makes more sense to save the best teams. In one-and-done pools, that number might be pushing 70. But for the purposes of this exercise, let's take the 64 at face value.

Is it better to take the 93.75 percent team that's massively owned, or gamble on the 7.3 percent owned team that's only got a 75.61 percent chance to win, per Vegas.

The way to figure that out is first to calculate the likelihood that it makes a difference, i.e., that the Vikings win while the Jaguars lose or the Jaguars win while the Vikings lose. If they both win or lose, it makes no difference. (And I'm using the Jaguars because they're low enough owned that taking the Rams - the other Vegas/low ownership candidate - would be roughly the same, i.e., feel free to sub in the Rams for the Jaguars here.)

The odds the Vikings win while the Jaguars lose is 93.75 * (1 - 75.61) = 22.87 percent. The odds that the Jaguars win while the Vikings lose is 75.61 * (1 - 93.75) = 4.73 percent. The "risk" ratio is therefore 22.87/4.73 = 4.84.

Let's take a look at the "reward" ratio. In a hypothetical 100-person pool with a $10 buy-in, if the Vikings win and Jaguars lose, roughly seven people will be out. Another nine people are likely to get bounced with other teams for a total of 16. If there were 100 people left when the week started and only 84 when the week ended, a survivor's pool equity would go from the initial $10 investment to $1000 (total money in the pool) divided by 84 = $11.90.

If the Jaguars win and Vikings lose, 64 people will go down with the Vikings plus the nine or so on other teams, for a total loss of 73 people. In that case, only 27 would be left, and pool equity for survivors in Week 3 would be $1000/27 = $37.04. The reward ratio is therefore $37.04/$11.90 = 3.11.

As you can see the risk of taking the Jaguars (or Rams) this week significantly outweighs the reward. Where then would Viking ownership need to be for risk/reward to be at break-even? It's where the pool equity in a Jaguars-win/Vikings-loss scenario divided by $11.90 also equals 4.84. If there were 72 percent of your pool on the Vikings, there would be fewer projected losses on other teams, so let's call it 80 percent total (instead of 81.)

In that case, 20 survivors would remain for a pool equity of $1000/20 = $50. If you divide $50 by $11.90, you get 4.2 for the reward ratio, still too low. It turns out you get to break even when there's between 17 and 18 survivors left. That means roughly 82.5 people would have to lose, or roughly 75 percent would have to be on the Vikings - and, again, that's just to break even. If you fancy yourself as having any edge, you do not want to take the riskier short-term play just to get true odds. Realistically, you'd want 84 percent of your pool minimum projected to go down in the event of a Vikings loss, or about 76-77 percent on the Vikings.

My Picks

1. Minnesota Vikings

I don't need to make the case for why they're a good bet to win. Unless you think they'll be minimum 75 percent owned, I'd play it safe this week. I give the Vikings a 93 percent chance to win this game.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars could have a letdown after beating the Patriots, but they've been as good as any team in the NFL since the start of last year. The Titans might have Blaine Gabbert under center too. I give the Jaguars a 79 percent chance to win this game.

3. Los Angeles Rams

The Chargers have the talent to hang with anyone, Rams included, and they don't have to travel for this "road" game (LA traffic though is brutal.) The difference is the Rams are so much better coached and run as an organization, and they actually still have fans. I give the Rams a 75 percent chance to win this game.

4. Philadelphia Eagles

Carson Wentz is back, and while the team is still thin at receiver, I expect the defense to play well at home and the team to bounce back after an upset loss last week. The Colts are always dangerous with Andrew Luck, but I expect him to be running for his life this week. I give the Eagles a 74 percent chance to win this game.

Notable Omissions:

New England Patriots - They should handle the Lions, but this is a road game, their defense is suspect, and Matthew Stafford and his receivers are good.

Houston Texans - The Giants looked awful last week, but if the Texans can lose to the Blaine Gabbert Titans, they can lose to anyone.

Kansas City Chiefs - They're an amazing story so far, but the defense is still susepct, and they draw a game opponent in the 49ers.

Chicago Bears - The Cardinals look terrible, but so does Mitchell Trubisky, and this is a short-week road game. Pass.