Job Battles: No Doubt About Doyle

Running Backs

Kerryon Johnson vs. LeGarrette Blount vs. Theo Riddick, DET

We knew that Blount was a problematic obstacle for Johnson to break out to his full fantasy potential, and the absence of Riddick (knee) over the last two weeks has highlighted a separate avenue through which Johnson might be able to boost his fantasy value. The Lions headed into this year with Blount anointed in the running game as Riddick was in the passing game, which is to say, a substantial role in the respective functions even though neither veteran runner could match Johnson in either function.

Johnson demonstrated substantial progress on the Blount front in Sunday's loss against Seattle, securing eight carries to Blount's three in the otherwise sluggish loss for the Lions. The more interesting development might be the fact that Johnson turned eight targets into six catches for 69 yards, giving reason to wonder if the rookie might soon force the same issue with Riddick that he has with Blount all year. Riddick is a better pass-catching specialist than Blount is a rushing specialist, but Johnson continues to pass every test handed to him, and in the process he chips away at whatever veteran loyalty the Lions coaches have shown Blount and Riddick. There remains untapped upside for Johnson not only as a runner, but a pass catcher too.

Tarik Cohen vs. Jordan Howard, CHI

I thought the Chicago offense would thrive this year and as a result have room for both Cohen and Howard to produce in any given week, particularly given Cohen's ability to contribute as a route runner, but by now I think I was wrong. Both players have shown the ability to produce in any given week, but the formula appears to contain an OR variable rather than an AND.

That technically wasn't the case Sunday against the Jets, when Howard totaled 81 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries as Cohen turned five carries into 40 yards and three targets into a 70-yard touchdown reception. Cohen's three targets aren't normally going to cut it, however, as a YPT of 23.33 is of course not sustainable. Cohen saw 30 targets over the three prior weeks, but Howard totaled just 37 carries over that span, and the only other time Howard went over 20 carries this year coincided with Cohen seeing just five carries and three targets.

The circumstances that determine whether it's a Howard or Cohen-friendly game script is pretty clear – Howard gets fed when they have a lead, and Cohen gets to work when they need to still establish one. It makes sense to shift toward Howard with a lead, because it'd be unwise to pose unnecessary risk to Cohen's tiny frame when he's otherwise one of their primary means of establishing a lead in the first place. Save your best bullets for when you really need them. With that said, Howard should finish stronger than he started this year, even with this game script dynamic in play. His box score was already knocked a bit by an uncharacteristic goal-line fumble earlier this year, and his current rushing average of 3.5 yards per carry is nearly a full yard less than his career average (4.4 YPC).

Aaron Jones vs. Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery, GB

Mike McCarthy's deference to Williams faced its greatest strain yet in Sunday's game against the Rams, where Williams saw just four carries for nine yards and a touchdown while the always explosive Jones played a central role in keeping Green Bay in the game with his 12 carries going for 86 yards and a touchdown. Montgomery, meanwhile, lost the game with a fumble on a fourth quarter kick return, and on a return where he apparently defied coach instruction to kneel in the end zone.

Montgomery is talented and versatile, but he's not good enough to get away with openly defying coaches. Williams, meanwhile, sits at a career total of 789 yards on 216 carries (3.7 YPC), numbers that just cannot meaningfully compare to Jones and his 722 yards on 125 carries (5.8 YPC). McCarthy has been slow to get the point, but the confluence of these outcomes should finally force the stubborn coach to hand the ball to his best player. Big-time knock on wood for that one, of course.

Chris Carson over Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny, SEA

Penny totaled 92 yards on his last 18 carries and 27 yards on his last two targets, but coming out of the bye Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer decided they'd rather completely remove the explosive rookie from their offense and feature Carson with a few sprinkles of Davis otherwise. Expect Carson's efficiency to decline when he faces a better run defense than the wreck the Lions put forth this year, but 25 carries Sunday makes clear that the Seahawks intend to deny all alternative suggestions until something breaks and forces their hand on the question. The Seattle offensive line has run blocked very well this year, and whoever gets the ball will have favorable circumstances despite the dubious coaching.

Wendell Smallwood vs. Corey Clement vs. Josh Adams, PHI

Smallwood was brutal in blitz pickup against the Jaguars, which might subject him to greater scrutiny than you might guess from the box score alone, where his explosiveness otherwise yielded 66 yards and a touchdown from scrimmage against the Jaguars. Smallwood's rushing contributions have been modest at best, however, turning 60 carries into 257 yards and a touchdown, and if his pass-blocking remains such a liability the question of his pass-catching skill might not even enter the equation reliably.

It's possible that Clement is still not fully over the quadriceps injury that bothered him starting in Week 3, because his rushing production has been miserable lately. He has 12 yards on 12 carries in his last two games, and on the season he's looking at an average of just 3.3 yards per carry. If his struggles are health-related, Clement could come out of the Week 9 bye with a vengeance, and specifically at Smallwood's expense.

If neither Smallwood nor Clement can distinguish themselves as runners, than the rookie Adams has shown the ability to capitalize in that role. After leading the Eagles with 61 yards on nine carries against the Jaguars, Adams is up to 107 yards on 20 carries. Adams was highly explosive throughout his Notre Dame career, and the Eagles will have reason to investigate his upside if Clement and Smallwood continue to struggle. Adams has notably seen next to nothing in the way of passing situation work, however, seeing just one target to this point.

Darren Sproles (hamstring) should return this year but at an unspecified point as of now. He might pose a threat to Smallwood's workload especially when that happens.

Elijah McGuire vs. Trenton Cannon, NYJ

Finally eligible to return from IR with the foot break he suffered this preseason, McGuire is set to compete with Cannon, the explosive and appropriately surnamed rookie, for off-the-bench snaps behind starter Isaiah Crowell. With Crowell unchallenged for most between-the-tackles work, McGuire and Cannon will mostly battle for third-down and hurry-up functions.

A sixth-round pick out of Virginia State, Cannon boasts 4.40 speed but at only 5-foot-11, 185 pounds. McGuire only ran a 4.53 40 coming out of Louisiana-Lafayette last year, but he ran his time at 214 pounds. Thus, McGuire might be able to match Cannon's big-play function even though he doesn't possess the same raw speed. McGuire, after all, was all but anointed the Jets' third-down back prior to the injury, even with both Crowell and Bilal Powell (neck) presumed in the fold at the time. That means the second-year back likely earned some substantial amount of fondness from the Jets coaches prior to the injury.

I would expect Cannon to continue providing a few touches from scrimmage per game, but McGuire should be the favorite to win this competition. He already knows the drill and was trusted in passing situations prior to his injury, whereas Cannon has mostly played out of necessity with McGuire and Powell hurt. McGuire wasn't especially productive as a rookie sixth-round pick last year, turning 88 yards into just 315 yards and a touchdown, but he impressed by turning 26 targets into 17 receptions for 177 yards and a touchdown. Something to the tune of 6-to-8 carries and 4-to-5 targets per game is what I would hope for in McGuire's case, while Cannon presumably would get another audition if McGuire is sluggish out of the gates.

Wide Receivers

Keke Coutee vs. Tyler Ervin vs Vyncint Smith, HOU

Coutee is not actually subject to this competition – he'll be on the field in a three-down role in some capacity or another when his hamstring allows him to return. The question is whether the Texans will utilize him as an outside receiver in place of the now injured Will Fuller (ACL), or if they'll leave the 4.4 wideout at the slot position he played prior to Fuller's injury.

If Coutee stays in the slot, then Ervin is probably pushed back to the No. 4 wideout role despite serving as the third in place of Coutee against the Dolphins. Smith would likely be the new No. 3 wideout for Houston in this event, playing outside snaps that used to go to Fuller. Smith is an unknown after playing at Limestone College and has seen just four targets this year, catching one for 28 yards. But the rookie has intriguing athleticism to work with, standing at 6-foot-2, 197 pounds with a 4.38 40, 39.5-inch vertical, and 130-inch broad jump. This is a wideout with good range who can burn and reach above the rim. He's only worth monitoring or perhaps a speculative pickup in very deep leagues at the moment, but if Smith gets snaps against Denver this week he might be worth a desperation pickup in more leagues.

If Coutee gets outside snaps, then Ervin would probably replace him in the slot. He caught his only target against Miami, turning it into a four-yard reception, and he otherwise has working against him the fact that he was drafted as and played as a running back for most of his Houston and San Jose State career. Ervin has 4.4 speed and open-field running skills to his credit, but it might be asking a lot of a recent position switch to take on a prominent role on short notice.

Brandon LaFell vs. Martavis Bryant, OAK

Jon Gruden traded a third-round pick for Bryant this offseason, but even after Bryant posted 220 yards on 22 targets prior to Sunday, Gruden basically scratched Bryant in favor of LaFell. Bryant played only seven snaps and saw no targets against the Colts, while LaFell played 46 snaps and saw four targets, catching three for 39 yards and a touchdown.

Bryant's mercurial personality tends to make him check out in situations like this, so it's fair to wonder whether he's already on the outs again in Oakland.

Tight Ends

Jack Doyle vs. Eric Ebron, IND

The gravy train might be over for Ebron owners like me. Doyle finally returned from the hip injury that cost him five straight weeks, yet somehow Doyle wasn't Ebron's only problem. Ebron ranked fourth in tight end snaps for Indianapolis on Sunday, with Doyle (57 snaps) leading the way, and Ebron's 17 snaps otherwise trailing both Mo Alie-Cox (25 snaps) and Ryan Hewitt (21 snaps).

Perhaps the game plan dictated this, but even in this so-called best-case scenario, that leaves a nauseating range of possibilities for Ebron each week going forward. His combination of size and athleticism is imitated by no one else on the team, and he's their best downfield threat after T.Y. Hilton, yet the Colts basically didn't use him despite trailing Oakland heading into the fourth quarter. If they don't use him when they're trailing, when will they use him? Doyle didn't exactly leave the door open by turning those seven targets into six catches for 70 yards and a touchdown.

Doyle is basically the opposite of Ebron – reliable as he is containable. He's snagged an incredible 76.2 percent of his career targets, but only at a rate of 6.6 yards per target. That's basically late-career Jason Witten numbers, but still totally worthy of starter snaps, and unlikely to be challenged by Ebron in an offense that's been more horizontal than vertical.

Ebron has disappointed fantasy owners for seemingly a decade now, but tight ends are notoriously slow to develop, and he's only 25 years old. Doyle is 28, for some perspective. By the time Doyle was 25 in the NFL, he had a catch rate of 81.4 but a YPT of just 4.9 on 43 targets. But however good Ebron might be when he's Doyle's age, he seemingly can't match him now. I'll be holding on to Ebron where I own him, even with his role up in the air and a bye this week, but I'm also bracing for the worst.