This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at Week 10:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIEFS | Cardinals | 23.50% | 1500 | 93.75 | 5.22 |
| PACKERS | Dolphins | 17.20% | 380 | 79.17 | 4.47 |
| Chargers | RAIDERS | 13.50% | 450 | 81.82 | 5.47 |
| JETS | Bills | 13.30% | 340 | 77.27 | 5.51 |
| EAGLES | Cowboys | 9.00% | 240 | 70.59 | 1.41 |
| Falcons | BROWNS | 6.90% | 185 | 64.91 | 0.51 |
| RAMS | Seahawks | 6.20% | 450 | 81.82 | 0.38 |
| BEARS | Lions | 4.30% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.48 |
| Saints | BENGALS | 2.00% | 202.5 | 66.94 | 0.48 |
| Patriots | TITANS | 2.00% | 290 | 74.36 | 0.48 |
| 49ERS | Giants | 0.60% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.48 |
| STEELERS | Panthers | 0.60% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.48 |
| BUCCANEERS | Redskins | 0.30% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.48 |
| COLTS | Jaguars | 0.20% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.48 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
My Picks
1. Kansas City Chiefs
They're only 23.5 percent owned and nearly 94 percent (per Vegas) to win. I don't have to explain why they're so heavily favored at home over the Cardinals. I give the Chiefs a 93 percent chance to win this game.
2. Los Angeles Rams
The Seahawks played them tough the first time around, but in Los Angeles and with Cooper Kupp healthy again, I expect the Rams to pull away and Seattle to struggle to keep up. I give the Rams an 83 percent chance to win this game.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
It's a road game, but a short trip to Oakland in their time zone
Let's take a look at Week 10:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIEFS | Cardinals | 23.50% | 1500 | 93.75 | 5.22 |
| PACKERS | Dolphins | 17.20% | 380 | 79.17 | 4.47 |
| Chargers | RAIDERS | 13.50% | 450 | 81.82 | 5.47 |
| JETS | Bills | 13.30% | 340 | 77.27 | 5.51 |
| EAGLES | Cowboys | 9.00% | 240 | 70.59 | 1.41 |
| Falcons | BROWNS | 6.90% | 185 | 64.91 | 0.51 |
| RAMS | Seahawks | 6.20% | 450 | 81.82 | 0.38 |
| BEARS | Lions | 4.30% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.48 |
| Saints | BENGALS | 2.00% | 202.5 | 66.94 | 0.48 |
| Patriots | TITANS | 2.00% | 290 | 74.36 | 0.48 |
| 49ERS | Giants | 0.60% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.48 |
| STEELERS | Panthers | 0.60% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.48 |
| BUCCANEERS | Redskins | 0.30% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.48 |
| COLTS | Jaguars | 0.20% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.48 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
My Picks
1. Kansas City Chiefs
They're only 23.5 percent owned and nearly 94 percent (per Vegas) to win. I don't have to explain why they're so heavily favored at home over the Cardinals. I give the Chiefs a 93 percent chance to win this game.
2. Los Angeles Rams
The Seahawks played them tough the first time around, but in Los Angeles and with Cooper Kupp healthy again, I expect the Rams to pull away and Seattle to struggle to keep up. I give the Rams an 83 percent chance to win this game.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
It's a road game, but a short trip to Oakland in their time zone against a doormat of doormats. The Chargers are strong on both sides of the ball, while the Raiders are weak everywhere. I give the Chargers an 83 percent chance to win this game.
4. Green Bay Packers
The Packers typically crush weak competition at home, but the 49ers nearly beat them a few weeks ago, and Mike McCarthy is truly out to lunch. Still, the Dolphins have played poorly away from home, and this should be a get well game. I give the Packers an 80 percent chance to win this game.
5. New England Patriots
The Titans have played well in their last two, particularly on defense, and Marcus Mariota has regained feeling in his right hand. But the Patriots are peaking right now, and if Rob Gronkowski ever gets healthy, look out. I give the Patriots a 74 percent chance to win this game.
6. Philaldephia Eagles
The Cowboys are stout on both sides of the ball, but weakness at QB and coach are tough to overcome on the road against an Eagles team with a star QB and excellent coach. I give the Eagles a 70 percent chance to win this game.
7. New Orleans Saints
This is a bad spot for the Saints - outdoor road game against a decent team the week after an emotional win in a huge matchup. Still, the new-look Saints are better equipped to play this style of game with a real defense and running game, and A.J. Green is out. I give the Saints a 66 percent chance to win this game.
8. New York Jets
I don't trust Sam Darnold at all, and the Bills have a good defense, but Buffalo's offense is historically bad, and that should be enough. I give the Jets a 65 percent chance to win this game.
9. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons looked great last week in Washington, but another cold-weather, outdoor road game isn't likely to be a cakewalk. The Browns aren't very good, though, so even a B-plus effort should do the trick. I give the Falcons a 62 percent chance to win this game.
10. Chicago Bears
I don't trust them at all in this spot against a desperate Lions team with a better offense. But out of respect to the Vegas line, I'll list them here. It's Week 10, so not everyone has a ton of choices. I give the Bears a 55 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers are good, but Cam Newton is playing out of his mind, and the Panthers have unleashed several new weapons on offense.
San Francisco 49ers - Nick Mullens was good against the Raiders, but the Giants defense isn't terrible, so I'm staying away.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Redskins aren't great but they're better than the Bucs. This is a 50/50 game.
Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck over Blake Bortles sounds good, but the Colts last two wins were against the Bills and Raiders, and the Jaguars are a desperate animal right now.
