This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.Bye weeks are over, leaving us with a meaty 13-game Main Slate, with Saints-Cowboys (Thursday), Chargers-Steelers (Sunday Night) and Redskins-Eagles (Monday Night) removed from the mix.
Here's a quick rundown of the Implied Totals based on the point spread and over/under total for each of the Main Slate matchups:
Order has been restored atop the Implied Totals list for this week, as the Chiefs and Rams return from their bye week to occupy the top two spots, while also serving as the only two teams with totals projected above 30.
Other than the Chiefs/Raiders matchup, the highest over/under total of the week (54.5) comes from a projected close game between the Bucs and Panthers, as the Panthers are only favored by 3.5 with this game being played in Tampa Bay.
At 20 or less, we have many of the usual suspects, including the Niners on the road in Seattle, the Dolphins at home against the Bills, the Jets on the road against the Titans and the Cardinals visiting the Packers. The one surprise in this group is the addition of the Bengals, but the absence of Andy Dalton changes the outlook for the entire offense (even with the expected return of A.J. Green). It will be interesting to see if Marvin Lewis and Bill Lazor shift to a more run-heavy attack down the stretch with Jeff Driskel under center.
Cam Newton, CAR at TB ($6,600): The Bucs' pass defense is bad, even though it showed up to stymie the small contingent Nick Mullens, George Kittle and Kendrick Bourne GPP stacks in Week 12. When the Panthers and Bucs met in Week 9 in Carolina, Newton carried the same price on DraftKings, and he finished with a relatively disappointing 21.18 points on a day where the Panthers put 42 points on the board. He was very efficient, however, finishing 19-for-25 (76.0 percent) for 247 yards (9.9 YPA) and two TDs through the air. It's easy to see him finishing in the 28-30 point range this time around, especially if the Bucs keep it close as the line (Panthers -3.5) suggests. Even with last week's positive performance against a third-string QB, the Bucs have allowed a 26:3 TD:INT this season, while yielding the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing passers.
Kirk Cousins, MIN at NE ($5,500): Cousins picked apart the Packers on Sunday night, topping 300 yards for the fifth time this season and finishing with 30 DraftKings points. Surprisingly, his price dropped $600, making him cheaper than Baker Mayfield on the road in Houston. The Patriots have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, and the shootout potential for this game is very high since the Patriots' offensive line and schematic adjustments should make the Vikings' pass rush less effective against Tom Brady than it was against Aaron Rodgers last week. Although the 7.4 YPA he brings into Sunday's game is the lowest of Cousins' career for any season in which he has been a full-time starter, he has his full complement of weapons healthy, as long as Stefon Diggs' absence from practice Wednesday and Thursday proves to be late-season maintenance for his knee.
Also Consider: Andrew Luck, IND at JAC ($5,800): Luck has averaged 26.8 DraftKings points at home, compared to 21.4 on the road in 2018, thanks to a huge drop in YPA (8.0 home, 6.1 road) and an increase in turnovers. The setup will probably lead to a lower-than-usual ownership rate (Ben Roethlisberger was under 4 percent owned in the Slant – $9 GPP and the Millionaire Maker in Week 11 in the same matchup). The Jags' defense has been near the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season (18.9), and they may be on the field a lot Sunday as Leonard Fournette's one-game suspension has been upheld, and Cody Kessler is taking over at quarterback for Blake Bortles. Moreover, Luck and the Colts were efficient through the air in their first meeting with Jacksonville in Week 10, piling up 9.8 YPA and three TDs en route to a 22.2-point performance.
Kareem Hunt, KC at OAK ($7,800): Hunt is averaging 18.5 touches per game over the Chiefs' last four contests, and with Kansa City as the biggest favorite on the board (-15), he should be positioned for plenty of work again in Week 13. The Raiders are giving up 4.9 YPC this season, tied for the fifth-worst in the NFL, and not surprisingly, they've been a bottom-10 defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs as well. The projected usage different between Hunt and the elite running backs on the Main Slate is appropriately priced in, and it would hardly be surprising to see a lot of cash-game lineups opt to pair Hunt with Saquon Barkley to save money from the prices of Todd Gurley and Christian McCaffrey this week.
Update 11/30: Kareem Hunt was sent home from the Chiefs' facility Friday afternoon after TMZ released a video that showed Hunt shoving and kicking a woman at a hotel in Cleveland in February.
Aaron Jones, GB vs. ARI ($6,700): Mike McCarthy took the scenic route to making Jones the Packers' primary running back, opting to use frontage roads and country trunks instead of the Interstate. Even with the increased usage, his weekly workloads more closely resemble that of Hunt than of the higher-end backs, but the Packers are two-touchdown home favorites against Arizona, and the Cardinals have been very generous to opposing running backs this season, allowing 30.3 DraftKings points per game (fourth-most in the league). In addition to taking the bulk of the carries in the Green Bay backfield, Jones' opportunities in passing situations have significantly increased in recent weeks, as he's hauled in 13 passes for 120 yards over the last four games.
Philip Lindsay, DEN at CIN ($5,400): This price is simply too low, and while that might prop up ownership akin to the surges we saw with Marlon Mack and Matt Breida last week, it looks an awful lot like good chalk. Lindsay has been one of the biggest surprises of the season after the Broncos invested in early draft pick in Royce Freeman, as he's kept a slightly larger share of the overall workload in the Denver backfield in 2018 thanks to his hold on a significant amount of passing-down work. Even with Freeman's return from injury in Week 11, Lindsay has led the position group in snaps and touches each of the last two weeks. 14-16 touches is a reasonable floor, and the Broncos might be in a position to run more than usual against a rapidly deteriorating Cincinnati team. The Bengals have been the most generous defense in the league with regard to running back production this season, allowing 33.1 DraftKings points per game to opposing backs.
Chris Carson, SEA vs. SF ($5,200): Carson has racked up three 100-yard games around a few injuries this season, returning a lot of value in those instances since his price never gets too high. The risk comes from a matchup that is actually somewhat tough from an efficiency standpoint, as the San Francisco run defense has allowed just 4.0 YPC this season. There's also some concern that comes from his limited pass-down work, but that is less of an issue with Seahawks sitting as 10-point home favorites, which should put him on track for an easy 15-carry day, with the potential for 20-plus if things play out as expected. As 32-18-10 snap distribution favoring Carson over Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny last week appears to be the current blueprint for the Seattle running game split.
Brandin Cooks, LAR at DET ($7,000): Every week, Cooks vs. Robert Woods seems like a toss-up, as their production and price tags are often in lockstep. Cooks has been targeted at least eight times in eight games this season, and he's gone over 100 yards in three straight contests, which is just enough to give him the edge over Woods for Sunday's matchup against the Lions. The Detroit secondary is near the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, but giving Sean McVay an extra week to prepare for anything seems like an extra advantage worth pursuing. All of Detroit's corners, including Darius Slay, have allowed a passer rating of 100+ through 11 games this season.
Corey Davis, TEN vs. NYJ ($5,500) : Davis fared well in a difficult spot against Houston on Monday night, turning five touches into 135 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown against the Texans. Marcus Mariota appears to be healthy, for now, which bodes very well for Davis' production down the stretch, as he should push closer to the 10 targets per game clip from Weeks 9 and 10 than the four targets he's seen in each of the last two games. With the likely spike in targets, and a matchup against a Jets defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wideouts, Davis is an easy cash-game staple to build around with a mid-range price point.
Julio Jones, ATL vs. BAL ($7,700): The price is the lowest we've seen this season for Jones, who enters Week 13 with a 100-yard performance in each of his last six games. The Ravens have been a very stingy pass defense all season, holding the opposing wide receivers to 29.9 DraftKings points per game – second-fewest in the league this season. Elite receivers have been able to produce, however, with A.J. Green's Week 2 showing (5-69-3), Michael Thomas' Week 7 performance (7-69-1) and Antonio Brown (two games with 15+ DraftKings points) leading the way. Make no mistake, the Ravens are very good in coverage, and even a receiver as a talented as Jones carries enough risk to be limited to tournament-use at the deflated price in this matchup. While the low price might pull Jones up to an elevated ownership rate, pairing him with quarterback Matt Ryan ($5,600) could prove to be a sneaky tournament combo.
Josh Gordon, NE vs. MIN ($5,900) : Gordon pulled in all five of his targets for 70 yards in the Patriots' win over the Jets on Sunday, and while a higher target volume was expected, it's important to note that the Pats only attempted 31 passes – their lowest total since Week 3 in Detroit. Matched up against a Vikings team that should put more pressure on the Pats to keep their foot on the gas, Gordon enters Week 13 with a $500 discount from last week's price. The status of Xavier Rhodes (hamstring) is worth monitoring as Sunday approaches, but Gordon should move around enough to draw occasional matchups against the Vikings' other defensive backs. Moreover, Gordon is averaging 9.9 yards per target since going to New England, efficiency that ranks among the league's elite pass-catchers, and the type of production that can withstand being part of an offense that appears to have a health Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski in tow for the time being.
Also Consider: Odell Beckham, NYG vs. CHI ($7,800)
Hail Mary: Robby Anderson, NYJ vs. TEN ($3,500): Anderson was on the field Thursday for at least a portion of practice (he's been slowed by an ankle injury), and he's had at least five targets in each of the last six games that he's played. The production has been feast-or-famine, as he pulled in his only target for a 41-yard TD in Week 1, disappeared for three weeks, and helped those who took the chance in tournaments in Week 5 against Denver with a three-catches, 123-yard, 2-TD day against the Broncos. Anderson's catch rate is very low (46.9 percent), but tournament darts under $4,000 usually have at least one wart, and the positive include 89.3 air yards per game (1.95 ay/snap) and an average target depth of 16.4 yards through nine games this season. Regardless of whether Sam Darnold is able to return from a foot injury this week, Anderson has my interest as a low-owned, high-risk, high-reward play at this price.
Eric Ebron, IND at JAC ($4,200): Ebron returned to practice Thursday after sitting out Wednesday's session with a back injury. Even if you're not buying into the Colts' offense as a whole by playing Andrew Luck on the road against the Jags, Ebron's target floor jumped considerably with the news that Jack Doyle's season is over due to a kidney issue that required surgery earlier this week. When Doyle was out for a five-game stretch earlier this season, Ebron had at least seven targets in all five contests, reaching double digits on three occasions, and getting 13 of those targets inside the red zone. His priced topped out at $5,400 on DraftKings during that stretch, and Doyle's absence is not accounted for in Ebron's Week 13 cost. Much like Cameron Brate a week ago, the ownership rate in tournaments may guide you to pivot at least some of your lineups elsewhere at the position.
Matt LaCosse, TE, DEN at CIN ($2,500): LaCosse took over after Jeff Heuerman departed with a season-ending injury last week, pulling in three of his four targets for 34 yards and a touchdown. After Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton, the Broncos have a 3a/3b situation for target share with Philip Lindsay and LaCosse potentially sharing the remaining targets from Case Keenum. LaCosse is averaging 8.1 yards per target in limited chances this season, but he's run a route on 94 percent of the pass plays he's been on the field for in 2018.
Also Consider: Greg Olsen, CAR at TB ($4,100)
Packers vs. Cardinals ($2,800): The Packers draw a low-scoring Arizona offense in Week 13, and more importantly, they're led by a rookie quarterback (Josh Rosen) whose offensive line has allowed 30 sacks this season. The Green Bay pass rush has piled up 36 sacks this season – tied for third-most in the NFL with the Chiefs and Vikings. Additionally, Rosen has thrown 11 interceptions over 247 attempts, bringing plus-turnover potential to the table this week.
If the extra $300 makes a difference, the Chiefs facing Derek Carr and the Raiders in Oakland are a solid alternative at $2,500, as the Raiders have yielded 36 sacks in 11 games.