2019 Football Draft Kit: Sleepers & Busts

We surveyed our football writers for undervalued and overvalued players heading into this season, aka, sleepers and busts. 

Why the distinction? Because "undervalued" and "overvalued" more accurately reflect what fantasy owners do when they hunt for sleepers and busts — they're identifying players whose likely average draft position (ADP) makes them either undervalued or overvalued. Like everything else in life, fantasy drafts are about opportunity cost — the potential gain given up by not drafting Player A to instead draft Player B. To determine that, owners must consider not just the pros and cons of a player, but the pros and cons of a player relative to his ADP. To help fantasy owners make those decisions, we asked some of our football writers for their favorite undervalued and overvalued players for the 2019 season. But remember, calling Patrick Mahomes, for example, overvalued does not mean he will be awful this year. It simply means his risk outweighs the likelihood he will return his ADP value.

For our purposes, we limited "busts" to an ADP top-10 QB/TE or top-20 RB/WR who is likely to be overpriced.

UNDERVALUED

Darrell Henderson, RB, Rams

Plagued by an arthritic knee, Todd Gurley was spelled by C.J. Anderson throughout the playoffs and the Super Bowl last year. If the Rams did that when the stakes were highest, they'll almost certainly do it during the regular season. Worse, Gurley was held out of OTAs, and we know Sean McVay doesn't play his starters in preseason. Enter third-round pick Henderson, who at 5-8, 208, and running a 4.49 40, could be the team's change-of-pace and pass-catching ace. There's potential for an Alvin Kamara-type role if Gurley stays healthy. If Gurley goes down, the sky's the limit.

Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals

Murray's a rookie, but he should see a lot of attempts in coach Kliff Kingsbury's up-tempo offense, and he is also an elite scrambler. The floor is low if he struggles to adjust to the pro game, but the ceiling is a top-3 fantasy quarterback. A solid group of pass catchers — Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson, plus rookies Andy Isabella (4.31 40) and 6-5 Hakeem Butler – should help the transition. In 12-team, 1-QB leagues, you might as well swing for the fences and then grab a boring veteran late in case Murray flops.

— Chris Liss, @Chris_Liss

Ronald Jones, RB, Buccaneers

It is truly tough to pick just one, but the worst decision the since-departed Dirk Koetter made in an unenviable three-year coaching tenure with the Buccaneers was mothballing Jones, the team's 2018 second-round pick, in favor of "three yards and a cloud of dust" Peyton Barber. Fortunately, new Tampa Bay coach Bruce Arians has proven to be far more creative with his running backs. Jones, who ran a 4.48 40-yard dash at his pro day, has the type of game-changing speed that makes him a better fit than Barber for a spread offense.

Tyrell Williams, WR, Raiders

Williams was woefully underutilized by the Chargers, as the 6-4 WR who ran a 4.42 40-yard dash was bizarrely used as a decoy and blocker when both Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon were healthy. In the lone season when Allen was out, Williams asserted himself as an upper-echelon receiver, totaling 69 receptions, 1,059 yards and seven touchdowns in 2016. Antonio Brown will rightly get all the hype, but Williams is a do-it-all receiver who should prosper in an Oakland offense that figures to be playing from behind early and often.

— Joe Bartel, @JBFantasySports

Allen Robinson, WR, Bears

After posting 1,400 yards and 14 TDs in 2015, Robinson's following three years were ruined by terrible QB play, a torn ACL and moving to a new team. Now that he's fully healthy and well-versed in the Chicago offense, Robinson, who posted excellent combine numbers, should return to being the WR1 that the fantasy community has waited for since his breakout year. Don't forget, when the Bears needed him most, he posted 143 yards and a TD in last season's playoff game, and he could be a league-winner after roughly 60 picks have been taken in fantasy drafts this year.

Vance McDonald, TE, Steelers

McDonald quietly had the best season of his six-year career last season when he posted 610 yards and four TDs, but he's flying under the radar and typically being drafted after 10 TEs are off the board. His numbers could've been much better, but he was targeted just 72 times as the fourth option in a top-heavy offense. However, Antonio Brown is gone, freeing up a ton of targets, and Jesse James is also departed, which should propel McDonald into a full-time role, making him a great target for those who miss out on the Big 3 at tight end.

— Jim Coventry, @JimCovfootball

Calvin Ridley, WR, Falcons

Ridley likely will suffer TD regression after scoring 10 — one every 6.4 catches — as a rookie. That said, Ridley is an exceptional route runner, and his 821 yards ranked 28th last season among wide receivers, despite a two-target, zero-catch Week 1. The first-round pick should continue improving as a sophomore, and he likely will be drafted far below his 2018 finish as the No. 18 fantasy wide receiver. His biggest threat for targets is Mohamed Sanu, whose 2018 production was similar to Ridley's, except Sanu played nearly 200 more offensive snaps.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Rams

It's hard for a player who is consensus top 20 at his position to be a "sleeper," but Cooks pulls it off. His ADP is 15-20 among WRs, which is shockingly low. Cooks topped 1,000 yards each of the last four years, averaging 1,150. During that time, only five others averaged as many yards per season. Cooks was on the field for 96 percent of the Rams' snaps last year and led the team in air yards. He'll turn 26 in September, and he's been on three teams the last three seasons. Finally returning to a familiar QB and offense, the speedster could easily crack the top 10 of fantasy WRs.

— Alex Rikleen, @Rikleen

Rashaad Penny, RB, Seahawks

Where Penny was overpriced last year, he's now discounted this year. Don't ignore the ability the first-round pick showed last season. Despite getting nearly a third of the carries of Chris Carson, Penny only had four fewer explosive runs (20-plus yards) and averaged 4.9 YPC. Penny is a 220-pound creative runner with 4.46 speed. With Carson's violent running style, Penny is an injury away from being this year's Nick Chubb. And even if Carson stays healthy, Seattle will run the ball plenty. With Mike Davis gone, there's a path to 225-250 touches.

Allen Robinson, WR, Bears

It feels like an awfully long time since Robinson carried expectations on the level of the elite WRs. In the three years since his breakout season at age 22, he's been Blake Bortles'd, torn an ACL and changed zip codes. Don't let recency bias detract from the upside. After returning from the ACL injury and with a new (second-year) QB, Robinson closed last season with 228 yards and a TD in his last two games (including playoffs). He is still in his prime, and with size, speed and acrobatic ball skills, he could return topnotch numbers again for an offense likely to make strides.

— Luke Hoover, @Hoover_L_A

Mark Ingram, RB, Ravens

The market overcorrected when Ingram moved from the high-powered Saints to the Ravens. While Baltimore does have backfield depth, Gus Edwards is no Alvin Kamara, and Ingram's three-down skill set should net him the bulk of the touches. New offensive coordinator Greg Roman has experience crafting run-heavy attacks that feature mobile QBs like Lamar Jackson — between San Francisco and Buffalo, Roman's offenses finished top 5 in rushing yards per game four straight years — and Ingram is no less talented than Frank Gore or LeSean McCoy.

Christian Kirk, WR, Cardinals

There's no bigger wild card in fantasy football this year than new Arizona coach Kliff Kingsbury. His system may or may not work in the pros, but even if it proves to be smoke and mirrors, it could take a while for the league to catch on. Remember, Chip Kelly looked like a genius until he proved he wasn't. With Larry Fitzgerald no longer any kind of downfield threat and a host of rookies around him on the depth chart, Kirk — a 2018 second-round pick who is dangerous in the open field — might be best positioned to exploit that window in which his new coach is taking the NFL by storm.

— Erik Siegrist, @AntonSirius

Tyrell Williams, WR, Raiders

The Raiders overhauled their pass-catching corps, saying goodbye to a group of players that drew 358 targets last season. Antonio Brown might account for half that total on his own, but there's nobody else besides Williams locked in for a sizable portion. With a four-year, $44.4 million contract in hand, Williams figures to stay busy as the No. 2 option on a team that will spend much of the year trying to erase deficits. His career mark of 9.7 YPT is headed south, but that's a perfectly good trade off for fantasy owners if it comes with triple-digit targets.

Mecole Hardman, WR, Chiefs

The lack of college production — 961 receiving yards the last two years — is a legitimate concern in Hardman's prospect profile, but the upside is well worth a shot when we're talking about adding 4.33 speed to a monster of an offense that likely needs to fill a Tyreek Hill-sized hole. Patrick Mahomes is so good that it almost seems impossible for his team's offense not to support two fantasy-viable wide receivers, and the other candidates are Demarcus Robinson, Gehrig Dieter, Marcus Kemp or Byron Pringle. The rookie should end up No. 2 behind Sammy Watkins.

— Jerry Donabedian, @RotowireNFL_JD

OVERVALUED

Todd Gurley, RB, Rams

I wouldn't touch him until the late second round at the earliest. He was forced to split carries in the Super Bowl, and his arthritic knee kept him out of OTAs. Moreover, the Rams used a third-round pick on Darrell Henderson, a versatile pass-catching back who could serve as a perfect complement. Analytically driven Super Bowl contenders don't use third-round picks on running backs unless they think they will play immediately. Finally, coach Sean McVay won't play his starters in preseason anyway, so intel on Gurley's status and projected usage will be hard to come by this summer.

Le'Veon Bell, RB, Jets

Bell has as a few things going against him this season: 1. He is now 27 and hasn't played football since 2017; 2. Coach Adam Gase apparently never wanted to sign him and is already notoriously fickle in his personnel usage; 3. Even if he does get heavy use, it is unlikely to be as heavy as it was in Pittsburgh; 4. The Jets offense could be good, but it is almost certainly going to be worse than the Steelers ones in which he played for five seasons; and 5. Bell has played 16 games just once in his career, back in 2014 before the Steelers ran and targeted him into the ground.

— Chris Liss, @Chris_Liss

Nick Chubb, RB, Browns

Too many owners are drafting Chubb based on last season's production, numbers that essentially came when he was the only skill player around — he averaged 19.6 touches in 10 games after the Carlos Hyde trade. That won't be the case in 2019 after the Browns traded for Odell Beckham Jr. Plus, once Kareem Hunt returns from his eight-game suspension, Chubb likely will find himself in a backfield timeshare, with Hunt stealing both rush attempts and targets. Chubb's draft stock has a lot of helium heading into summer.

Kenyan Drake, RB, Dolphins

Even with a new coaching staff calling plays in Miami, it's tough to confidently select Drake as a top-20 running back after he was unable to beat out 35-year-old Frank Gore last season. And considering how bad the Dolphins are expected to be this year, would Drake winning the starting job really be all that lucrative for fantasy owners? There won't be many touchdowns to go around, and Kalen Ballage and rookie Myles Gaskin also figure to factor into the handful of competitive snaps that might occur during a Dolphins game this year. #NotGod'sPlan.

— Joe Bartel, @JBFantasySports

Sony Michel, RB, Patriots

After a great run in the playoffs, when Michel averaged more than 100 yards and two TDs per game, he's being selected as a top-40 player in fantasy drafts. So, what's not to like? First, the Patriots drafted running back Damien Harris in the third round, adding competition for either early down and/or goal-line work. Also, with Rob Gronkowski retired and Tom Brady turning another year older, defenses might begin to stack the box more to challenge the Patriots to beat them through the air. These scenarios add enough uncertainty to make Michel a big gamble at his price.

David Njoku, TE, Browns

Last year, the Browns' 2017 first-round pick broke out with 639 yards and four TDs, and he's now being drafted as a top-10 tight end. Despite his top-tier athleticism, the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. should make Njoku the fourth option in the offense. Not only will Beckham soak up a lot of targets, but Jarvis Landry isn't going away as an option who will command looks, and Nick Chubb should see heavy volume in the running game. Add it all up, and Njoku is unlikely to see enough regular volume to be worth his draft capital.

— Jim Coventry, @JimCovfootball

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

This is not about Mahomes' talent; the Chiefs lost major contributors. Damien Williams is good, but he's not Kareem Hunt, and Tyreek Hill could miss a chunk of time, if he plays at all. QBs rarely finish No. 1 in back-to-back seasons — it hasn't been done since Dante Culpepper in 2003-04 — and while Aaron Rodgers had a great run in 2008-12 ranking first or second every year, a QB hasn't had consecutive top-3 finishes since Russell Wilson finished third in 2014 and 2015. About three PPG separate QB4 and QB12 most years. Mahomes must finish as a top-3 QB to justify his draft-day cost.

Eric Ebron, TE, Colts

Ebron's 13 TD catches in 2018 tied for the most among tight ends in the last five seasons. The others with double-digit touchdowns in that span? Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Jordan Reed, Julius Thomas and Tyler Eifert. Ebron is not on that level. There is little chance that one of the league leaders in drops (eight) repeats that absurdly high TD production – especially since Ebron was the Colts' secondary TE whenever Jack Doyle was active. In games when both played, Doyle outpaced Ebron 33-21 in targets, 26-17 in receptions and 245-216 in yards.

— Alex Rikleen, @Rikleen

George Kittle, TE, 49ers

Kittle is a sure-fire regression candidate but still has an eye-popping price tag. His 10.1 YPT was higher than all but three players who reached 1,000 receiving yards in 2018 — speedsters Tyreek Hill, T.Y. Hilton and Brandin Cooks — and he saw more than twice as many targets as any teammate. With Dante Pettis entering Year 2, Deebo Samuel joining as a second-round pick and Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon poised to steal targets out of the backfield, Kittle would have to maintain his crazy efficiency to even sniff the numbers his price tag suggests.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Steelers

Smith-Schuster is awfully talented and awfully young, but he's a Robin, not a Batman. There's simply no way he produces top-10 WR numbers without Antonio Brown dominating defensive attention. When the 22-year-old faces constant double teams for the first time in his career, volume alone will not be enough for him to live up to his lofty ADP among the elite wide receivers. Without another serious threat in the Pittsburgh pass attack, Smith-Schuster likely will have too many games resembling Week 17 last year (37 yards on 10 targets).

— Luke Hoover, @Hoover_L_A

Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers

Todd Gurley isn't the only No. 1 back in Los Angeles to be worried about. Gordon played a career-low 12 games in 2018 due to lower-body injuries of his own, and while TDs and receptions kept his numbers afloat, he saw significantly less red-zone usage last year — a trend that will make double-digit rushing scores hard to repeat. Austin Ekeler also has proven he can handle a bigger role than simply being Philip Rivers' latest passing-down darling. If Gordon's touches dip toward 15 a game rather than 20, he'll have a hard time providing first-round value.

Kenny Golladay, WR, Lions

No one doubts the 25-year-old's athletic upside, but Golladay won't be working in the uptempo Detroit attack of old. Coach Matt Patricia wants a ground-and-pound offense and should get it with Darrell Bevell taking over as coordinator. Last year, Matthew Stafford started to show the wear and tear of eight consecutive seasons of 16 starts working behind a spotty offensive line. Even as the unquestioned No. 1 target for the Lions, last year's numbers for Golladay could be his ceiling, not his new baseline, and the downside risk if Stafford falls apart is significant.

— Erik Siegrist, @AntonSirius

James Conner, RB, Steelers

Conner isn't anything special in terms of talent; his immense fantasy value in 2018 came from dominating backfield snaps in a high-powered offense. That leaves us with two major questions for 2019: 1. Will Conner dominate snaps again? 2. Will the Steelers offense match last year's output — sixth in points, fourth in yards — without Antonio Brown? I'm guessing no and no, though I still expect it to be an above-average offense. As for the workload, look no further than last year's season finale in which Conner split snaps with pass-catching ace Jaylen Samuels.

Eric Ebron, TE, Colts

Ebron lays claim to the least impressive 14-TD season in NFL history, producing 6.8 YPT with a 60 percent catch rate while playing with a quarterback who completed 67.3 percent of his passes for 7.2 YPA. Among 74 players with 50 or more catches, Ebron ranked 65th in drop rate (7.3 percent) and 63rd in YAC per reception (3.7). Coach Frank Reich is too smart not to give some of Ebron's 2018 targets to Jack Doyle, Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell. The person in your league who drafts Ebron will also be the first to draft a kicker and the first to draft a defense.

— Jerry Donabedian, @RotowireNFL_JD

This article appears in the 2019 RotoWire Fantasy Football magazine. Order the magazine now.