This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
The Week 4 tickets were pretty much a disaster, with the Chargers' 30-10 win over the Dolphins making the Chargers to win between 1-13 (+175) lose, and the Titans' 24-10 victory against the Falcons in Atlanta killed the Titans under 21 points (-110). We got a little unlucky with the next two, as Marlon Mack anytime touchdown and Colts win (+135) had no chance after Mack was forced out with an ankle injury after rushing 11 times for 39 yards (in fairness, the Raiders were ahead anyway), and the most frustrating one was watching Leonard Fournette rack up 225 yards on 29 carries while adding two catches for 20 receiving yards, but he failed to pay off the +135 anytime touchdown. Thankfully, the Chiefs pulled through despite zero touchdowns from Patrick Mahomes, giving us our lone win on Chiefs over 31 points (-112).
We'll jump back in for Week 5, one that isn't expected to have a lot of high-scoring games, though there are two huge favorites we may be able to attack.
Patriots and Eagles to win by 14+ (+179)
A regular moneyline parlay of the Patriots (-800) and Eagles (-750), the two biggest favorites of the week, is -364, which isn't nearly as drastic as what we saw a few weeks ago with the Patriots and Cowboys, but it's still not all that exciting. With the Patriots favored by 15 at Washington and the Eagles giving 14.5 to the Jets in Philadelphia, those who think both favorites dominate can sign up for a parlay of both teams winning by at least 14 points to get a much more attractive payout. With the Eagles -140 to win by 14+ and the Patriots -160 for the same, combining them provides a path to higher returns, though the risk is higher too. There are obviously a few combinations you can play around with, and here are the other options if you're expecting both favorites to win but not necessarily by at least two touchdowns:
| Team | Win By | Odds | Parlay | Team | Win By | Odds | Parlay | Team | Win By | Odds | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 1-13 | +180 | +656 | Patriots | 14+ | -160 | +339 | Patriots | 1-13 | +180 | +380 |
| Eagles | 1-13 | +170 | Eagles | 1-13 | +170 | Eagles | 14+ | -140 |
Leonard Fournette anytime touchdown (+115)
It feels a little silly going back to this same bet, but Fournette's volume is simply too high to keep getting held out of the end zone. After last week's 29-carry day, he's now rushed 72 times while catching 16 of 23 targets in four games and yet he's still looking for his first touchdown. Meanwhile, the Panthers have allowed at least one touchdown to a running back in three of four games (they held the Texans' running backs out last week, though they gave up 114 rushing yards and six catches), and they're only 3.5-point home favorites. If you have an inkling that the Jaguars could win on the road, a Fournette to score and Jaguars to win pays +290 versus the regular moneyline of +152.
Austin Ekeler to score and Chargers win (+155)
There is some concern that Ekeler could lose a few touches to Melvin Gordon on Sunday, but with the latter barely back from his hold out and Ekeler's fantastic play during that absence, there's still a high expectation that he'll hold onto a majority of the touches for at least this week. The Chargers are 6.5-point home favorites against the Broncos, and while their home-field advantage isn't much of one, they are still a much better team. We also don't need them to cover that spread for this bet, we can simply focus on them winning and Ekeler finding the end zone against a defense that's allowed at least one running back touchdown in each game this season, including two to the Raiders and Packers. Meanwhile, Ekeler, who has -105 odds to score a touchdown, comes in with six in four games, as he continues to show off that he can make impacts on the ground (three rushing TDs) and in the passing game (three receiving TDs).
David Johnson over 17.5 fantasy points (-108)
Johnson is actually -122 for fewer than 17.5 fantasy points, a level he reached twice in two games this season, finishing with 22.7 in Week 1 against Detroit, 7.9 in Week 2 at Baltimore, 15.5 in Week 3 against Carolina and 17.9 in Week 4 against Seattle. He now faces a Bengals defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season, a total that includes five rushing touchdowns and three receiving scores. Additionally, they seem to be content allowing running backs to catch passes, conceding 16 last week to bring their total to 30 in four games. Meanwhile, Johnson continues to be a big part of the Cardinals' passing game, catching 14 of 20 targets in the past two games, giving him a good chance to break 17.5 fantasy points despite FanDuel's half-point-per-reception scoring rule. And given the Fournette optimism above, over 15.5 at -108 doesn't seem too bad for him either.
