DraftKings NFL: Week 12 Picks
DraftKings NFL: Week 12 Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

There is only one game with a total over 48.0 points on Sunday's main slate, plus five that are 41.5 or below (yikes). With the Buccaneers vs. Falcons game the highest at 51.5, there are likely to be plenty of stacks in GPPs and ownership of players from that game in cash games, so those looking to differentiate should probably go elsewhere.

RUNNING BACKS

Alvin Kamara, NO vs. CAR ($8,200): Christian McCaffrey is once again the most expensive player on the slate, costing $10,500 for the third week in a row, though he's facing arguably his toughest matchup other than the two games against the Buccaneers. Only the Buccaneers, 49ers and Patriots have allowed fewer fantasy points per game to running backs than the Saints, who haven't allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 5, though they did allow receiving touchdowns to running backs in each of the past two games. McCaffrey has proven to be pretty matchup proof – he scored 33.1 fantasy points last week in a 29-3 loss – but paying up for McCaffrey likely means you're fading Kamara, who is facing a Panthers defense that's allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs (third-most on the slate), including multiple touchdowns to the position in four of their last five games. The $2,300 in salary savings can go a long way, and Kamara's viability is enhanced by the fact that a lot of other higher-priced running backs have question marks.

Derrick Henry, TEN vs. JAX ($6,900): Henry doesn't catch enough passes to make him an easy cash-game play, but his matchup against a Jaguars defense that's allowed 409 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns in the past two games might be too hard to ignore at less than $7,000. Having allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season, the small hesitation on Henry is that the Jaguars vs. Titans game has a pretty gross 41.5-point total, though there are actually four games on the slate with even lower totals. Henry may not get much passing volume, but the's accounted for 187 of the team's 208 running back rushing attempts, and there's every indication he'll maintain his high volume Sunday. Leonard Fournette ($7,300) on the other side of the game could get some consideration, especially with an increase in targets recently, though those have come with a significant drop in rushing attempts.

Bo Scarbrough, DET at WAS ($4,200): Scarbrough presents as a pretty risky option given how inconsistent the carry distribution has been for the Lions, and we have a tremendous sample size of.....one game to show us what Scarbrough can do. Making his NFL debut last week, Scarbrough rushed 14 times for 55 yards and a touchdown, with two of those carries coming inside the 10-yard line (one inside the five), while Ty Johnson ($3,700) managed just six rushing yards on two carries. Like Henry, Scarbrough isn't likely to get much work in the passing game, as J.D. McKissic ($4,400) is expected to continue to get the passing-down work, but Scarbrough opens up plenty of salary while lining up against a Washington defense that's allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs (fifth-most among teams on the slate), including more than 100 yards and/or a touchdown in all but one game this season.

QUARTERBACKS

Matt Ryan, ATL vs. TB ($6,700): With no Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson is the highest-priced quarterback at $6,800, with Ryan slightly behind in a great matchup against the Buccaneers, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and most among teams on the slate. The Buccaneers vs. Falcons game has the highest total on the slate at 51.5, so Ryan is likely to be popular in cash games and GPPs since you can stack him easily with his receivers and have exposure to the other side of the game with the expectation the Buccaneers will need to keep pace. On that secondary subject, Jameis Winston ($6,200) makes for a solid play given his ridiculous volume of late, averaging 48 pass attempts per game over his last five, and while he seems almost a lock for at least 300 yards because he's done it all but three times this season, he's also likely to have more turnovers than touchdowns, since he does that more often too. The Falcons' defense has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, though they held the Saints and Panthers to zero passing touchdowns in the past two games (both had over 300 yards, however).

Jeff Driskel, DET at WAS ($5,500): There was certainly some temptation to write about Baker Mayfield ($5,900) because of his matchup against the Dolphins in Cleveland, and while I think he makes for a fine play, it's tough to see him hit a ceiling that could be equal to Winston's, which makes the $300 in salary savings not all that attractive. You can make the case that going down $400 from Mayfield to Driskel isn't that much, and while that's certainly reasonable, Driskel is more of a floor play given Mayfield theoretically could light up the Dolphins since pretty much everyone has this season. Driskel has yet to pass for 270 yards, but he's reached at least 19.06 fantasy points in both of his starts, helped by 88 total rushing yards. The Washington defense is certainly not one that should be feared or necessarily attacked, but Driskel's floor is firmer than other players in the range like Daniel Jones ($5,700), Sam Darnold ($5,800), Nick Foles ($5,400), Ryan Tannehill ($5,300) or Kyle Allen ($5,200).

WIDE RECEIVERS

Julio Jones, ATL vs. TB ($8,000): Michael Thomas ($9,300) is the most expensive wide receiver on the slate, and second-highest priced player overall, and there's no question that he's a great play against the Panthers, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wideouts this season. The real question is whether he's worth the $1,300 salary difference between him and Jones, who faces a Bucs defense that's allowed a league-high 2,022 receiving yards and 17 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, impressively done in 10 games as opposed the next two teams in terms of allowance, who have each played 11. Playing both of them likely means you're not paying up much for running backs, but the upside is sky high for the position. Jones has had at least eight targets in all but two games this season, the last of which was back in Week 5, and pairing him with Ryan is a pretty natural mini-stack. Teammates Calvin Ridley ($6,500) and Russell Gage ($3,900) will also be popular for those looking to stack the Falcons, and the biggest reason not to target them is that plenty of others will be too, especially with tight end Austin Hooper ($6,200) ruled out again. And speaking of stacking, hitting up Chris Godwin ($7,200) and/or Mike Evans ($7,300) with some Falcons will be popular too.

D.J. Chark, JAX at TEN ($6,400): There are a few solid wide receivers in Chark's price range, including D.J. Moore ($6,400), DK Metcalf ($6,300), Courtland Sutton ($6,200), Jamison Crowder ($6,200) and Jarvis Landry ($6,300). They have each been heavily targeted of late, and while they don't all have great matchups, sometimes the volume is more important. Chark has a good combination of both, as he was targeted 15 times last week in Foles' return from injury, catching eight for 104 yards and two touchdowns, and he now faces a Titans defense that's allowed five receiving touchdowns to wide receivers in the past three games.

Tim Patrick, DEN at BUF ($3,000): If we're willing to use one-game samples for Scarbrough and, to a lesser extent, Chark, Patrick had four catches on eight targets for 77 yards in his first start last weekend at Minnesota, and he is now minimum priced. The matchup against the Bills is far from ideal, but if the Buffalo defense focuses more on stopping Sutton and tight end Noah Fant ($3,900), Patrick could find some openings. If you don't want to depend on a minimum-priced player, Cincinnati's Alex Erickson ($4,000) could see more chances if Auden Tate ($4,100) is unable to play, while Josh Gordon ($4,200) could be a fun flier, at least more so than Hunter Renfrow ($4,500).

TIGHT ENDS

Zach Ertz, PHI vs. SEA ($6,000): Ertz is the most expensive tight end on the slate now that Hooper has been ruled out, but it's unsurprising after he caught nine of 11 targets in each of the past two games, racking up 103 and 94 receiving yards, respectively. The presence of Dallas Goedert ($3,700) has made a few people hesitate on Ertz, both because Goedert has a touchdown in three of his last four games and always for a much cheaper price, but both players are viable if Alshon Jeffery ($4,900) sits out again because of an ankle injury.

Noah Fant, DEN at BUF ($3,900): Fant's matchup doesn't get much worse, but a tight end with 22 targets in the past three games shouldn't be overlooked. Goedert will get some consideration in the price range, and there should be people interested in Greg Olsen ($4,100), Mike Gesicki ($3,400), T.J. Hockenson ($3,400) and Vance McDonald ($3,500), but Fant probably gets the most targets among the group, with McDonald having a decent path too because JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner are ruled out with injury.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Falcons vs. TB ($3,500): The Falcons' defense has been awful for the most part, but they've been excellent in the past two games, which coincided with head coach Dan Quinn ceding the play-calling duties. As a result, they had 11 sacks over their past two games, including five last week when they also picked off Kyle Allen four times. They now face Jameis Winston, the most-sacked quarterback in the league who also happens to have thrown the most interceptions and fumbled the ball more than all but one other quarterback. If you're looking to pay down, the Broncos ($2,400) offer some sack upside against the Bills' Josh Allen, who has fumbled as much as Winston, while the Dolphins are a solid punt at the lowest price of $2,000.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Andrew M. Laird plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: kingmorland, DraftKings: andrewmlaird, Yahoo: Lairdinho.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andrew M. Laird
Andrew M. Laird, the 2017 and 2018 FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's Head of DFS Content and Senior Soccer Editor. He is a seven-time FSWA award finalist, including twice for the Football Writer of the Year Award.
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