This article is part of our NFL Observations series.
Talk about a tale of two games. I needed Football Team to cover the spread, check. I needed football team money line, check. I needed Antonio Gibson to have a bad day and J.D. McKissic to have a big one, check. I also needed some points from Diontae Johnson. It honestly could not have gone better for me. On the other hand, I had Niners +2.5 as my best bet, and I needed a huge game from Deebo Samuel.
- josh Allen looked like Patrick Mahomes -- everything so smooth and easy. Every third-down conversion, every fourth-down one, except on the first drive. He finished with 374 yards, four TD passes, no picks, one sack and 9.4 YPA. Smooth, poised, accurate. That version of Allen can win a Super Bowl.
- Zach Moss fumbled, so Devin Singletary (18-61-0, 4-3-22-0) got all the work. He strikes me as just a guy.
- Cole Beasley (11-9-130-1) is better than I realized when he was in Dallas. And Stefon Diggs (11-10-92-0) keeps stacking stats.
- Brandon Aiyuk (9-5-95-1) and Deebo Samuel (9-6-73-0) are both good. Aiyuk is shifty, fast and elusive, and Samuel is a monster after the catch. When they get George Kittle and a real QB back, look out. Unfortunately, they're a long shot for the playoffs after that loss.
- The Bills probably would have won anyway -- it was so easy for their offense -- but the roughing-the-passer call on 3rd-and-18 was really bad. I didn't see the foul -- I was watching the condensed version of the game -- but fine players, electric shock them midweek or do whatever you have to in order to deter those fouls without making it an automatic first down. The other issue with it is a personal foul on 1st-and-10 from the 20 is just 1st-and-10 at the 35, no big deal. But a personal foul on 3rd-and-18 at the opponent's 35 is nearly as bad as a turnover. It has way too big an impact on the game.
- The Bills also got screwed on a huge fake DPI call from the 49ers goal line, that fueled San Francisco's first drive, so it was probably about equal. And in any event, the Bills were far and away the better team.
- Alex Smith seemed like a guy who brought a knife to a nuclear war, down 14-0 and checking it down every play, but he made a few big throws to Cam Sims and Logan Thomas against a tough defense. It's crazy that of all the people who would take down the 11-0 team, it's the third-string QB who I assumed was on the roster for inspirational rather than real-life football purposes. Smith is no longer the feel-good story for non-football fans: He's the quarterback of the team tied for first place in its (albeit terrible) division that just took down the 11-0 Steelers on the road.
- J.D. McKissic (5-8-0, 10-10-70-0) was getting some of the easiest fantasy points I can remember in the third quarter. It was Alvin Kamara-esque.
- What a blow for Antonio Gibson (knee) owners who needed a decent game to make the playoffs.
- Ben Roethlisberger looked good to me -- he was accurate and poised in the pocket, despite the low per-play output. But the Steelers needed to run the ball in the second half, and they got totally one-dimensional. There's no need for the added degree of difficulty of completing a four-yard pass to JuJu Smith-Schuster when a zero-risk handoff to a back should accomplish the same thing.
- Eric Ebron is the Evan Engram of the AFC -- an elite athlete who cannot get through a game without a gaffe or a drop.
