Week 15 Observations

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Published on December 21, 2020

It wasn't a great day for me personally -- 4-9-2 ATS, Giants getting crushed, my lone fantasy team with a chance at winning money doing only so so -- but there were two major developments: (1) Jalen Hurts turning his audition into a hard-to-deny breakout; and (2) The Jets squandering the Trevor Lawrence pick by shocking the Rams. The NFL doesn't always go the way you want it to, but it usually rewards you with the unexpected.

I watched the 40-minute version of the Giants game, and even that was boring. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard are good players, Andrew Thomas played well against Myles Garrett until a late sack and the defense held up decently without star corner James Bradberry. But Evan Engram (another pass off his hands), and the rest of the team is a tear down. What's worse is Daniel Jones' injury prevents him from getting a necessary make-or-break audition, so the team can make an easy decision for 2021.
I didn't watch as much of the Saints-Chiefs as I thought I would because I was so roped into Eagles-Cardinals. Drew Brees looked terrible early and sharp late. You rarely see him complete only 15 of 34 passes.
Like Brees, Alvin Kamara (11-54-0, 6-3-40-1) started slowly, had a drop, but eventually got his.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran well before getting hurt, but was splitting carries with Le'Veon Bell. One problem for both backs is Patrick Mahomes doesn't especially like to check down.
Jalen Hurts went for 338 yards and three passing TDs, while going 11-63-1 on the ground. Despite a fierce pass rush -- he took six sacks -- and playing from behind he didn't turn the ball over, either. And that doesn't count four defensive PIs generated by his throws. The closest comp I can think of is Deshaun Watson.
I made the Eagles +6.5 my best bet though, so it was a little disappointing they lost by seven, thanks to the punter (and holder) being out and his replacement (Zach Ertz) not being able to handle an errant snap on a PAT.
The Rams were 17-point home favorites, with implied odds of 93.75 percent. But you wouldn't get on an airplane with a 6.25 percent chance of crashing. The crazy thing is not that the 6.25 percent came in, but that it came in when winning had such a steep cost to the Jets. I'm not much of a college football guy, but one way to measure the difference in the value of pick 1.1 compared to pick 1.2 this year is by considering what it would cost for the Jets to trade back up. Probably 1.2, a third rounder and 2022 first rounder? If that's ballpark, the Jets essentially squandered those two picks by winning. As much as I love to mock the Jets, though, it can be argued winning a game (or more aptly risking a win by not overtly tanking on the field) might have positive second-order effects that outweigh any reward for purposely losing. Or put differently, maybe trying to lose on the field is a line a franchise interested in long-term health shouldn't cross.
It feels like a bad beat when Justin Tucker misses from under 60.
Say what you want about Dwayne Haskins, but the Football Team did cover. Say what you want about Dave Gettleman, but he had the wisdom to reach for Danny Dimes rather than go with the consensus best remaining QB on the board in Haskins.
Russell Wilson did almost nothing against the Football Team pass defense.
David Montgomery (36-146-2, 2-1-15) was one of the more unlikely players to deliver people fantasy titles. After having zero 100-yard rushing games and two total TDs through Week 11, he's had six TDs and three 100-yard games in his last four.
After the worst kicking performance in NFL history, Dan Bailey made all five of his kicks (two FGs and three PATs.)
The Patriots found out you can't out-ugly the Dolphins.
Cam Newton wasn't the guy to carry a terrible offense on his back, it turns out. Among the available veteran QBs last offseason, no one has done much including Newton, Andy Dalton, Nick Foles and Jameis Winston.) In fact, based on his one game Thursday night, I'd say Marcus Mariota has been the best of the bunch.
The Texans lost twice to the Colts in three weeks on fumbles in the closing minutes at the two-yard line. Deshaun Watson is closer to the Mahomes-Wilson tier than the one below it.
Through 14 games, Ryan Tannehill has 31 TD passes, five interceptions, 8.1 YPA and four rushing TDs, despite missing his left tackle the last five weeks. And he did it last year too. Tannehill's a top-10 real-life NFL QB.
Nick Mullens is a turnover machine.
I drafted Tony Pollard (12-69-2, 9-6-63) in three leagues, but dropped him everywhere once Dak Prescott got hurt, and the offense was terrible. He probably sent quite a few people to the finals.
The difference between Matt Ryan blowing a huge lead to Tom Brady Sunday as opposed to in the 2017 Super Bowl is the Falcons (+6) covered. (I actually had a scare when the Bucs failed to convert a 3rd-and-short with less than a minute left, potentially setting up a spread-covering field goal, but the refs -- and the review booth for God knows what reason -- ruled it a first down even though the replays showed it was clearly short. The Bucs then were able to run out the clock rather than kicking to make the margin seven rather than four. Of course, it was close enough that the Bucs might have gone for it on fourth down anyway, but I'm glad we didn't have to find out.)