2026 Best Ball Strategy: How to Leverage Average O/U in Best Ball

Earlier this summer, we dug into the Vegas implied totals vs. fantasy ADP to get a look at how fantasy players view certain offenses vs. how the oddsmakers view them. There were some interesting findings, like how we drafters love taking the Cardinals early, but Vegas thinks they're in for a world of hurt this season. 

I want to take it a step further and see how we can leverage these NFL odds into our best ball teams. We don't just want to get players on good offenses. We want to target players on teams that consistently play in high-scoring games. 

I looked at the odds and totals from all 272 games and did all the fancy math (long division, sorting Z-A, very impressive stuff) to find some key numbers for this season. We'll dig into average implied points per game, average spread and average over/under to find the teams that have the best setups for fantasy. 

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Highest Average Implied Total by Team

We'll start at the top. These are the top-10 offenses in terms of implied points per game.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

It's not surprising to see the top-6 teams. We know these are the best projected offenses in the league this year. Assigning a number to it barely even matters. 

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Highest Average O/U by Team

Here's where it gets a little more interesting. Offensive environment. This table gives us the average over/under for each team in the league this year. Basically, it answers the question of which teams are expected to be playing in the most high-scoring games this season. 

We have some usual suspects up at the top like the Cowboys, Bengals and Lions, who have the ideal combo of great offenses and bad defenses. I don't think the Cowboys or Bengals defenses will be as cartoonishly bad this year. I do think the Lions defense takes a massive step back, however. 

Some interesting entrants on this list include Indianapolis and Washington. Indianapolis is interesting because they're a team that Vegas expects to regress on offense more than any team in the league. They averaged 27.4 points per game a year ago, but their average implied total this year is at 23.35 (17th). Much has been made of the personnel issues with Alec Pierce looking iffy for the start of the year, which necessitated the Keenan Allen signing. There's also no clear replacement for Michael Pittman. Still, Vegas sees Indy being involved in a lot of high-scoring games. 

For Washington, the defense (or lack thereof) is doing a lot of the heavy lifting in their average O/U. I glanced at the implied defensive points per game allowed figures, and the oddsmakers expect Washington to allow the third-most points per game this season, ahead of only Miami and Arizona.

The Commanders rank 15th in implied PPG (23.47) and are favored in just five games at the moment. If things really go off the rails for them, it might be good to think about adding players from their playoff schedule to your roster. That would include the Falcons, at Vikings and at Jaguars. Something to keep in mind.

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Lowest Average O/U by Team

No real surprises on this list. The fantasy community is high on the Broncos, Eagles, Vikings and Texans to a lesser extent but they show up on this list anyhow. That's in large part due to their defenses. They're all favored in more than half of their games at a minimum, with the Eagles (13 games) and Texans (12) leading the way. 

I'm not too worried about any of those offenses at cost, save maybe the Eagles but that's another article. Teams like the Titans, Panthers, Raiders, Jets and Browns are more likely to play a blend of bad offense and bad defense. Thank you, Captain Obvious.

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Percentage of Games as a Favorite

On the Rams ...

The average over/under table and this one have drawn my attention to the Rams. They're favored in all but one game (at Seattle) by an average of 4.85 points. That's not unprecedented, but it still shows how strong the Rams appear to be relative to the field this year. 

A big part of that has to do with the defense getting markedly better this offseason with big additions in the secondary plus the trade for the game-wrecking Myles Garrett. Oh, and they'll probably get Aaron Donald back, too. It's fine. 

My question is, with a better defense, are we really going to see the Rams in a ton of shootouts this year? The Rams played in two of the top-10 highest-scoring games in the league last year (Week 15 vs DET, Week 16 at Seattle) and three in the top 20 overall. 

My thinking coming into this was that the Rams' passing game might not be as prolific this year if they're playing with leads all the time in the second half. Well, they already had the second-most plays run with a second-half lead last year...

data courtesy nflfastR

And they ranked 11th in pass rate with a second-half lead. That seems to signal that the Rams already throw it at an above-average clip when they're up late. But I think it's still important to remember that even though that pass rate is above average, it's still just 45.7 percent. That means they're running more than half the time in those setups. 

Bottom line, we can expect the Rams to have a ton of second-half leads this year. And that comes with more run plays. This is not to say I'm out on the likes of Puka Nacua or Davante Adams, or even Terrance Ferguson, at cost. But I am saying that if things go as expected this year, the Rams running backs should smash their ADPs this year.

I've almost never been a Kyren Williams guy, but this year, I've changed my tune. He's the starting running back in what's expected to be the highest-scoring offense in the league this year. He plays for a team that is favored in 94 percent of its games by an average of nearly five points per game. You don't even have to believe he's good to see the appeal here. 

Zooming out, you have guys like Jeremiyah Love, who is hurt coming into the season and on the worst team in football, going ahead of Williams in ADP. That doesn't seem right to me. 

I also view Blake Corum as a great pick as RB32 with an ADP of 88.4 on Underdog. In drafts where I don't take Williams, I'm often grabbing Corum if I need a running back in that range. The contingent upside is colossal, and he has standalone value as well. His four best games during the regular season came in Weeks 13, 14, 15 and 16. 

Best Games to Target Early in the Season

I've put together a playoff cheat sheet that's handy for game stacking your roster builds for playoff time. But what about getting off to a hot start? Or how about contests like the Eliminator or The First Quarter on Underdog, which just goes through the first four weeks of the season?

These are the types of tournaments where we can more reliably leverage the Vegas preseason data into our fantasy decisions. As the season wears on, the actual on-field results will far outweigh this preseason data. Let's cherish it while we can.

Week 1 Highest Totals

Week 2 Highest Totals

Week 3 Highest Totals

Week 4 Highest Totals

The Bengals and Cowboys are in the five highest expected scoring games in each of the first four weeks. The Colts, Bills and Commanders make the list three times as well.