This is an updated version of the Running Back Busts article that ran earlier this month. ADPs for each running back have been updated and we added updated analysis.
What changed? Well, not much. Every player below is talented. That's exactly why each one is still dangerous at his current price.
Christian McCaffrey, Kenneth Walker, Breece Hall, TreVeyon Henderson and Bhayshul Tuten are being drafted like their role is settled. In each case, a big season, a contract or pure name value is doing more work than the actual competition for touches.
Fantasy Football Busts 2026
The pattern here isn't talent. It's certainty. Each of these five backs carries risk that his current price refuses to account for, whether that's a coach's philosophy, a crowded snap count or an efficiency decline nobody wants to price in.
Check where the field values these five players on RotoWire's ADP tool before you build your draft board, then stress-test a few of these calls in the mock draft simulator.
| PLAYER | TEAM | ADP | RB ADP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 49ers | 7 | 3 |
| Kenneth Walker | Chiefs | 20 | 11 |
| Breece Hall | Jets | 36 | 16 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | Patriots | 64 | 25 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Jaguars | 63 | 24 |
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Christian McCaffrey, 49ers - ADP: 7, RB3
Christian McCaffrey looked like a value entering last season after missing all but four games in 2024 with Achilles and knee issues. He delivered in a big way, finishing
This is an updated version of the Running Back Busts article that ran earlier this month. ADPs for each running back have been updated and we added updated analysis.
What changed? Well, not much. Every player below is talented. That's exactly why each one is still dangerous at his current price.
Christian McCaffrey, Kenneth Walker, Breece Hall, TreVeyon Henderson and Bhayshul Tuten are being drafted like their role is settled. In each case, a big season, a contract or pure name value is doing more work than the actual competition for touches.
Fantasy Football Busts 2026
The pattern here isn't talent. It's certainty. Each of these five backs carries risk that his current price refuses to account for, whether that's a coach's philosophy, a crowded snap count or an efficiency decline nobody wants to price in.
Check where the field values these five players on RotoWire's ADP tool before you build your draft board, then stress-test a few of these calls in the mock draft simulator.
| PLAYER | TEAM | ADP | RB ADP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 49ers | 7 | 3 |
| Kenneth Walker | Chiefs | 20 | 11 |
| Breece Hall | Jets | 36 | 16 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | Patriots | 64 | 25 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Jaguars | 63 | 24 |
Use code "JIM" for 35 percent off a RotoWire subscription and dominate your draft.
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers - ADP: 7, RB3
Christian McCaffrey looked like a value entering last season after missing all but four games in 2024 with Achilles and knee issues. He delivered in a big way, finishing with 2,126 scrimmage yards, 17 touchdowns and 102 receptions.
That production is now baked into his draft cost, creating a clear market inefficiency. McCaffrey carried 311 times with an NFL-high 413 touches. His 3.9 yards per carry marked a significant drop from his established career efficiency baseline.
McCaffrey leaned on volume rather than efficiency to secure those numbers. He now faces the risk profile of an older accumulated-wear asset. His current price reflects all of last year's ceiling and almost none of the floor variance.
Fade McCaffrey. The workload and efficiency trends are heading in opposite directions. He carries a stable floor but stands as an avoid at a first-round draft price.
UPDATE: McCaffrey's ADP has slipped by one overall since this article originally ran, but his position ADP remains steady at RB3. That's still too rich for fantasy drafts.
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Kenneth Walker, Chiefs - ADP: 20, RB11
Kenneth Walker is generating plenty of buzz at a heavy-volume price in the Kansas City offense. The team investment to make him the lead runner supports that read, but the situation carries workload risk. Walker has never topped 228 carries in a season.
The Seahawks didn't treat him as a true workhorse last year. The tape backs up that hesitation. Walker ranked in the 25th percentile in success rate, confirming a boom-or-bust profile that can knock an offense off schedule.
Walker could sharpen his decisiveness under the new coaching staff, but banking on that progression is risky. His price tags him as a strong option, which remains too rich for his baseline.
Pass on Walker at his current cost. The volume projection fails to consider his risk.
UPDATE: Walker has dealt with a foot injury in training camp, which pushed his ADP down a bit in recent drafts. He's fallen by five spots overall and two among the position. The injury risk is already evident and further shows why skepticism is warranted of his volume projection.
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Breece Hall, Jets - ADP: 36, RB16
Breece Hall is one of the more talented runners in the league. Despite playing in mostly poor offenses, he has averaged 1,453 scrimmage yards the last three seasons. The Jets backed that talent with a significant long-term financial commitment.
Defensive coordinator turned head coach Aaron Glenn implemented a committee backfield last season, and the tape backed up the approach. Before an injury cut into Braelon Allen's season, Allen had multiple games with more than 30 percent of the snaps. Allen operated in the red zone and on passing downs. Glenn likely will continue to split opportunities this season.
Hall's price looks reasonable on paper, but his fantasy production swung wildly when both backs were active. Pass on Hall. The coaching staff refuses to hand this backfield to one player, creating a timeshare that caps the ceiling his cost assumes.
UPDATE: Even in this year's first preseason game, Allen rotated in with the first-team offense before Hall was sidelined with a minor groin strain. Hall's ADP hasn't moved among the position, continuing to make him a fade.
TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots - ADP: 64, RB25
TreVeyon Henderson produced 1,132 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns last year. That line has the fantasy community pricing him as the clear lead back in New England. The postseason tells a different story.
When the games mattered most, Henderson totaled just 109 scrimmage yards on nine touches per game in four playoff matchups. Rhamondre Stevenson took over the heavy lifting, racking up 70 touches while averaging 86 scrimmage yards over that stretch.
Coach Mike Vrabel requires a physical runner who keeps the offense on schedule and keeps Drake Maye upright against the blitz. Stevenson is the more efficient player in both areas. New England is signaling an even backfield split, but the postseason blueprint already showed how this coaching staff leans when it counts.
Fade Henderson. He is priced like the lead option in an offense that turned to someone else the moment the stakes increased.
UPDATE: The market is catching on to Henderson as a fade, as his ADP has dropped six spots overall and three spots among the position. He'd have to fall even farther for me to jump on board.
Bhayshul Tuten, Jaguars - ADP: 63, RB24
Bhayshul Tuten's speed makes him an easy player to fall in love with. His past production never matched that draft profile. He posted a below-average 3.7 yards per carry with a second-percentile explosive run rate on 83 carries, relying on seven touchdowns to save his fantasy season.
The preseason buzz around his talent is unmatched by the news surrounding his teammates. Chris Rodriguez looks like the short-yardage and goal-line back. LeQuint Allen profiles as the primary receiving option even while working back from a minor soft-tissue injury.
That leaves Tuten without the roles that produce high-value fantasy touches. He should see rotational work, but his cost is steep for a change-of-pace role.
Pass on Tuten. The touchdown and target work is already spoken for elsewhere in this backfield.
UPDATE: Tuten's ADP has barely budged, which continues to place him among the running back fades.
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