It's easy to paint a promising best-case-scenario picture for pretty much anyone in the NFL, particularly guys who are good enough to be ranked among their position's top fantasy players in the first place. This is especially true in August when we've had enough football-free months to once again convince ourselves that we are actually capable of accurately predicting the future of a sport that uses a ball that isn't even round.
This brings us to this week's focus: six players I'm actively fading in fantasy football drafts of most shapes and sizes at their present average draft position.
Fantasy Football Busts 2026
The latter point is key: Don't hate the player, hate the ADP; I'm not entirely against taking these guys should their cost move down. We're also sticking to dudes going in the first six rounds in traditional home leagues because I find it lame and cowardly as hell to "fade" dudes going well outside the top-100 picks in the first place. The fades themselves are listed in no particular order. Cool? Cool.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
| PLAYER | TEAM | POSITION | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | Saints | RB | RB19 |
| Bucky Irving | Buccaneers | RB | RB17 |
| DJ Moore | Bills | WR | WR27 |
| Rashee Rice | Chiefs | WR | WR8 |
| Breece Hall | Jets | RB | RB15 |
| Garrett Wilson | Jets | WR | WR13 |
It's easy to paint a promising best-case-scenario picture for pretty much anyone in the NFL, particularly guys who are good enough to be ranked among their position's top fantasy players in the first place. This is especially true in August when we've had enough football-free months to once again convince ourselves that we are actually capable of accurately predicting the future of a sport that uses a ball that isn't even round.
This brings us to this week's focus: six players I'm actively fading in fantasy football drafts of most shapes and sizes at their present average draft position.
Fantasy Football Busts 2026
The latter point is key: Don't hate the player, hate the ADP; I'm not entirely against taking these guys should their cost move down. We're also sticking to dudes going in the first six rounds in traditional home leagues because I find it lame and cowardly as hell to "fade" dudes going well outside the top-100 picks in the first place. The fades themselves are listed in no particular order. Cool? Cool.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
| PLAYER | TEAM | POSITION | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | Saints | RB | RB19 |
| Bucky Irving | Buccaneers | RB | RB17 |
| DJ Moore | Bills | WR | WR27 |
| Rashee Rice | Chiefs | WR | WR8 |
| Breece Hall | Jets | RB | RB15 |
| Garrett Wilson | Jets | WR | WR13 |
Fade No. 1: Travis Etienne, RB, Saints
- Sleeper ADP: RB19 (pick 40)
- Ian Rank: RB19 (pick 49)
The price is starting to get more affordable. Round 3 Etienne was certainly a bigger issue.
That said: There seem to be some serious "dead zone" vibes here. This refers to an RB who might not be exceptionally talented, or be in a great offense, or be in the prime of their career, but hey, that projected volume sure looks nice!
Consider:
- Vegas ranks the Saints as the 23rd-ranked offense entering 2026. Maybe they will outperform this mark, Vegas isn't always right after all, but we probably shouldn't expect a MASSIVE leap from last year's 28th-ranked scoring offense.
- It's tough to call Etienne an upper-echelon RB talent. While the man was one of the most electrifying college playmakers my two eyes have seen, he's not exactly lightning fast these days. J.K. Dobbins had a faster top ball carrier speed last season per Next-Gen Stats!
- ETN's receiving numbers were perhaps a bit inflated in coach Liam Coen's scheme last season in Jacksonville. He scored six touchdowns on 36 receptions after having just one on his previous 132 career snags. The continued presence of Alvin Kamara also doesn't help.
- Speaking of Kamara: Are we absolutely positive the 31-year-old veteran is complete dust? Fantasy football's RB5 in PPR points per game as recently as 2024, Kamara has averaged 4.0 yards per carry the last two seasons compared to 4.1 for Mr. Etienne. Age is a concern, but it sure doesn't seem like Kamara gets anywhere near the same grace for operating behind the Saints' reigning bottom-5 offensive line in RB rush yards before contact per carry as guys like Quinshon Judkins and Ashton Jeanty.
The Saints have 47 million reasons to feed Etienne plenty of touches, but the potential to be more of a 60/40 lead back in a relatively meh offense isn't something I'm looking to sign up for at the Round 3-4 turn. Give me Javonte Williams in a far superior offense with less competition at a similar price point, while I also LOVE this range of wide receivers between Malik Nabers, Emeka Egbuka, Ladd McConkey and Jaylen Waddle.
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Fade No. 2: Bucky Irving, RB, Buccaneers
- Sleeper ADP: RB17 (pick 36)
- Ian Rank: RB26 (pick 60)
2024 Bucky Irving was a helluva drug, but 2025 was largely marred by injuries. Maybe better luck from the Injury Gods leads to bigger and better things for the 5-foot-9, 192-pound 2024 fourth-rounder, though it sure seems like this offense could consistently feature not one, not two, but three running backs.
- Lead back:Bucky Irving - this isn't really up for debate.
- Pass-down back: Reigning Steelers team MVP Kenneth Gainwell - could also reportedly be in more of a true 1B role.
- Short yardage:Sean Tucker - out-carried Bucky 9-0 inside the 5-yard line last season.
Basically, Bucky is looking at potentially filling the dreaded "between-the-20s" role for a Buccaneers offense not exactly expected to resemble the 1999 Rams (Vegas has them 18th). I'm not a big fan of spending early round picks on players who need to operate with elite efficiency to make up for a potential lack of high-end volume, especially when there are so many awesome receivers (and Colston Loveland) still on the board in this range.
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Fade No. 3: DJ Moore, WR, Bills
- Sleeper ADP: WR27 (pick 59)
- Ian Rank: WR29 (pick 66)
The case for DJ Moore is simple: He's Josh Allen's No. 1 WR. Why overthink this?
Well, my first issue is the reality that the Bills have kind of, sort of whiffed on nearly every wide receiver transaction since parting ways with Stefon Diggs. Seriously. The list is GROSS.
The second problem is the idea that Moore's down 2024 and 2025 were more so due to Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson. Williams has had his problems with accuracy, to be fair, but I especially push back on the idea that DJM simply wasn't a good fit in Johnson's system. Don't you think one of the brightest offensive minds in football could have figured something out for Moore if it was that easy?
Maybe the Bills are done with their "Everyone eats" mindset and simply want to force-feed the 29-year-old veteran the ball. Again, Josh Allen is the QB here; it's easy to see where I'm wrong with this one. Still, I'm clicking guys like Parker Washington and Christian Watson, who also project as their passing game's No. 1 option, *but* don't have as recent a track record of, you know, not being overly good at football.
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Fade No. 4: Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs
Speaking of fades that could easily blow up in my face: I just can't stomach the idea of using a real Round 2 pick on Mr. Rashee Rice. And hey, credit to Rice for largely returning WR1-worthy production when he's been healthy and legally allowed to play professional football, but boy, it's not like this pick comes with zero risk:
- This is by all accounts a very limited football player. Rice has *one* career catch on a pass thrown 25-plus yards downfield despite the deep ball regularly calling out to Patrick Mahomes like the green goblin mask every offseason. Don't you think the Chiefs might have at least tried to dial into this part of Rice's game if it existed?
- Every player has some level of injury and off-the-field risk, but it's probably fair to assume Rice's concerns are greater than most. After all, we're one more "knucklehead" (to be nice) move from Rice potentially being released and/or getting hit with a big-time suspension, and it's certainly not ideal that he needed a "cleanup" knee surgery in May stemming from his previous 2024 LCL issue.
- You may have noticed the Chiefs offense hasn't been overly, you know, good in recent years. Are we positive new OC/old friend Eric Bienemy will be as willing to run the passing game through such a volatile player?
Now, the team's utter lack of meaningful additions to the wide receiver room does lessen the potential impact of the concern, but man: Wouldn't it make sense if defenses load up the box in an effort to make someone other than Rice and Kenneth Walker beat them? I'm also not inherently against drafting questionable human beings in fantasy football, at the right price.
That latter point is the primary issue: This sure seems like a pretty flawed profile for someone regularly garnering top-25 consideration in fantasy land. I'm VERY happy to go in any number of other directions this early in drafts.
Check out our fantasy football ADP report for a comprehensive tool with live-updated ADP data for multiple league formats and sites.
Fade No. 5 & 6: Breece Hall, RB & Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets
- ESPN ADP: Hall (RB15, pick 36), Wilson (WR13, pick 36)
- Ian Ranks: Hall (RB14, pick 43), Wilson (WR22, pick43)
It's not you, Breece and Garrett, it's everything else that has to do with your offense and franchise.
Scoring upside: Vegas has the Jets last entering 2026.
Quarterback: Maybe Geno Smith simply gets back to partying like it's 2022-2023 again. That does feel like a bit of a leap of faith for a 36-year-old journeyman fresh off leading the NFL in interceptions and sacks. It seems like a matter of when, not if, fourth-round rookie Cade Klubnik gets a chance to show what he can do.
Coach: Frank Reich did some good things during his time with the Eagles a decade ago. More recently, he was fired midseason from the Colts (2022) and Panthers (2023), took 2024 off, and "led" the Stanford Cardinal offense to a 122nd-place finish in scoring in 2025 (of 136 teams).
Opportunity: Hall and Wilson should certainly work as the offense's two most featured players, but the addition of YAC-minded first-rounders Omar Cooper and Kenyon Sadiq could hurt their underneath targets. There's also at least some concern about more of a backfield committee given Aaron Glenn's "three-headed monster" offseason comments.
Only 14 RBs and 12 WRs have overcome a bad (bottom-10) scoring offense enough to produce high-end (top-12) fantasy numbers over the last decade. Maybe the Jets break their 10-year streak of finishing as a bottom-10 offense. Or maybe Hall and Wilson are simply built different and emerge as outliers. Best of luck to both on their quest to achieve just that, but there are fellow talented players in far less dire situations I fully plan on drafting instead with a top-50 pick.
