Quarterback is the position where fantasy managers pay the most for the past.
A magical season three drafts ago, a name that used to mean 40 touchdown passes, a four-game hot streak in December. All of it gets priced in, and none of it is a promise about 2026.
Fantasy Football Busts 2026
The four quarterbacks below are going too early in 2026 fantasy football drafts. Each is anchored to something that already happened — past production, past skills, past hot streaks. None of those things is on the schedule this year.
Check where each is landing in your format on our fantasy football ADP page before you set your board.
| QUARTERBACK | TEAM | ADP |
|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | Commanders | QB5 |
| Jalen Hurts | Eagles | QB6 |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | QB13 |
| Tyler Shough | Saints | QB20 |
Jayden Daniels, Commanders - ADP: QB5
Fantasy managers don't want to forget the magical season Jayden Daniels had in 2024. It seems as if last year's disappointing season was written off as injury-plagued and little else. So Daniels is commonly drafted as the fifth quarterback off the board with the expectation of a return to greatness. That seems overly optimistic.
At 6-foot-4, 210, Daniels has a very slight frame, and the outlier season was likely the 2024 campaign in
Quarterback is the position where fantasy managers pay the most for the past.
A magical season three drafts ago, a name that used to mean 40 touchdown passes, a four-game hot streak in December. All of it gets priced in, and none of it is a promise about 2026.
Fantasy Football Busts 2026
The four quarterbacks below are going too early in 2026 fantasy football drafts. Each is anchored to something that already happened — past production, past skills, past hot streaks. None of those things is on the schedule this year.
Check where each is landing in your format on our fantasy football ADP page before you set your board.
| QUARTERBACK | TEAM | ADP |
|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | Commanders | QB5 |
| Jalen Hurts | Eagles | QB6 |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | QB13 |
| Tyler Shough | Saints | QB20 |
Jayden Daniels, Commanders - ADP: QB5
Fantasy managers don't want to forget the magical season Jayden Daniels had in 2024. It seems as if last year's disappointing season was written off as injury-plagued and little else. So Daniels is commonly drafted as the fifth quarterback off the board with the expectation of a return to greatness. That seems overly optimistic.
At 6-foot-4, 210, Daniels has a very slight frame, and the outlier season was likely the 2024 campaign in which he avoided injury. He missed 10 games last year.
Now Daniels has lost his left tackle, Laremy Tunsil, to a torn triceps. With the Commanders likely to struggle on defense, the team can expect game scripts that expose Daniels to continued punishment.
If the price was cheaper, the injury risk would be easier to stomach. At current cost, it's just a bet on the best-case scenario.
Bottom line: Fade Daniels at QB5. You are paying for the outlier season rather than the baseline, and the body has not held up.
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Jalen Hurts, Eagles - ADP: QB6
Plain and simple, if Jalen Hurts is not a major factor as a runner, he's not a great fantasy option.
The quarterback may say the coaching staff wanted him to run less last year, and that might be true. But the film showed that Hurts was sliding two to three yards before contact far too often. His rush attempts have fallen from 157 to 105 the last three years.
Also, the "tush push" that used to have a near 90 percent success rate fell all the way to 63 percent last year. Even if offensive coordinator Sean Mannion is talking the play up, at this point handing the ball to Saquon Barkley seems to be a better option.
Finally, with the Eagles potentially having an elite defense, the team may often play with leads in the second half. In those scenarios, this team is set to run the ball and de-emphasize the pass. So an already limited passer could also see less volume. Throw in the fact that wide receiver A.J. Brown is gone, and the Eagles lose their best deep threat on top of everything else.
Bottom line: Pass on Hurts at a starter price. The upside days might be gone, and the team is built to throw less, not more.
Use RotoWire's interactive Mock Draft Simulator to prepare for every scenario in your 2026 fantasy football drafts.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs - ADP: QB13
No question Patrick Mahomes is one of the all-time legends at quarterback. But for fantasy, that's another story.
The last three years, Mahomes has not thrown more than 27 touchdown passes in a season. A reliable rushing floor, capped by a career year on the ground last season, is what kept him as a fantasy starter.
After tearing his ACL and LCL in Week 15 last season, Mahomes is expected to be ready for Week 1. That's great news, but it would be a stunner if he went back to being a big-time rushing threat this season.
Ultimately, that leaves a fantasy quarterback who hasn't had big passing numbers since 2022. At least for this year, Mahomes should be outside the top-15 quarterbacks in fantasy.
Bottom line: Let someone else pay the Mahomes name tax in drafts.
Mahomes is the clearest case of a market paying for a name instead of a projection.
Tyler Shough, Saints - ADP: QB20
Tyler Shough had a great end to the 2025 season. In his last four games, he averaged 23 fantasy points, a clear top-12 pace. Even though the fantasy community has not vaulted Shough to that level in 2026 drafts, he's still being viewed as a rising star.
The problem with the four-game hot streak was that it came against the Panthers, Jets, Titans and Falcons — all bottom-half defenses, including two bottom-5 defenses in the Jets and Titans. Shough averaged 293 passing yards at 8.2 YPA in those four games with a 5/1 TD/INT. In his five other starts, he averaged 216 passing yards at 7.1 YPA with 5/4 TD/INT.
With more film available on Shough, NFL defenses are sure to exploit his weaknesses. And Chris Olave is his only reliable wideout with the news that rookie Jordyn Tyson will miss about two months with an injury.
Bottom line: Fade Shough. The hot streak came against bad defenses. It looks like a long year is in store.
