Championships are rarely won by the first few names off the board. They're won in the middle rounds, where the gap between average draft position and actual talent is the widest. The 10 players below, spread across Rounds 5-9, have solid paths to outproducing their draft slot this season.
Build your queue around value instead of name recognition, and check where each of these players line up in RotoWire's rankings before your draft. And before locking in your queue for the middle rounds, stress test these names against the field with RotoWire's mock draft simulator, so you know how much runway you actually have to wait.
Quarterback
Justin Herbert, Chargers
Justin Herbert is one of the most durable quarterbacks in the league, missing one game the last two seasons, and his touchdown total has climbed each year, from 20 to 23 to 26. Herbert has also topped 300 rush yards in three of the last five seasons, adding a rushing floor most pocket passers don't have.
The bigger story, though, is the Chargers' offensive overhaul. New offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel's system projects a significant jump in passing efficiency, which matters enormously for a quarterback who was pressured at a 94th percentile rate behind a historically poor offensive line last season.
As the ninth QB off the board in fantasy drafts, Herbert is undervalued. Fantasy managers are still holding Herbert's team success, or lack of it, against his individual talent, and that's a mistake.
Bottom line: This is the best situation of his career, and the fifth to ninth rounds are a legitimate buying window for a top-5 ceiling.
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Caleb Williams, Bears
Caleb Williams took the leap last season, throwing for 3,942 yards and 27 touchdowns against seven interceptions for 21.8 fantasy points a game. He was even better down the stretch, averaging 23 points a game against four top-10 defenses from Week 15 through the playoffs, with his worst outing over that span still producing 18.7 fantasy points.
He added 388 rush yards and three rushing touchdowns last season, and his sack rate improved from the league's worst to among the best. He's played in all 34 games of his career, a durability track record that's easy to overlook, and he now has full continuity in coach Ben Johnson's offense.
His completion percentage — 58.1 percent, 32nd of 33 qualified QBs — needs to climb, but fantasy managers are selling Williams short. A shaky Chicago defense should also inflate volume.
Bottom line: The points have been there, and an affordable price makes this an easy buy.
Check out our Fantasy Football ADP Report for a comprehensive tool with live-updated ADP data for multiple league formats and sites.
Running Back
Quinshon Judkins, Browns
Quinshon Judkins looked like a budding star for the first six games last season, averaging 15.3 PPR points without a real training camp, before defenses started keying on him and a struggling offensive line offered no answers. He finished with 230 carries for 827 yards and seven total touchdowns in 14 games, missing three with a dislocated ankle, but that back-half fade, down to 9.5 PPR points in his final eight games, is what's kept his price down.
Cleveland's rebuilt offensive line and improved receiving corps should open up cleaner running lanes, and Judkins remains the clear three-down lead back in an offense that should generate more volume across the board.
Bottom line: The floor and the ceiling both line up nicely with a budget cost in the middle rounds.
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Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
Chuba Hubbard was humming along at 15.4 PPR points a game before a Week 4 injury last season derailed things, a continuation of the 1,195 yards and 11 total touchdowns he posted the year before. Once hurt, he fell to 511 yards and four touchdowns the rest of the way, and the efficiency marks (bottom 12 percent in yards per carry, bottom 8 percent in avoided tackle rate) aren't pretty.
None of that changes the math.
Carolina ran the ball 461 times last season. Hubbard does have to contend with Jonathon Brooks, but Brooks is coming off surgery on both knees, and betting against him fully reclaiming an every-down role is the safer play.
Bottom line: Volume is king at running back, and volume is exactly what Hubbard gets. At his current price, this is a bargain built on a bankable floor.
Wide Receiver
DJ Moore, Bills
DJ Moore's 2025 line in Chicago, just 50 catches for 682 yards on 85 targets, was his lowest-usage season since 2018, and it had everything to do with a scheme that simply didn't feature him. That context disappears in Buffalo.
Moore is now Josh Allen's clear No. 1 outside receiver, and his ability to improvise on broken plays fits Allen's game perfectly. He posted 17 or more PPR points in six of his final 12 games in 2025.
Moore is also durable, missing just two games in eight seasons. Buffalo's defense also projects to take a step back with coach Sean McDermott gone, which should mean more possessions and more passing volume.
Bottom line: Moore remains a legitimate difference-maker who simply wasn't used correctly last year, and he's one of the best values on the board once he's plugged back into a featured role.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr. still managed 16.1 PPR points a game across 12 games last season, good for 22nd among qualifying receivers, despite playing through a rotating list of injuries — a concussion, an appendectomy, heel and foot issues — that cost him five games. That follows a 2024 season of 62 catches for 885 yards and eight touchdowns on 116 targets, 11.7 points a game across 17 games.
Arizona's new head coach, who spent 2023-25 as a Rams assistant under Sean McVay, runs an offense built on pre-snap motion and play-action to manufacture separation, precisely the fix Harrison needs after struggling to create in short-area and after-the-catch situations. The drop rate, 67th of 78 qualifying receivers of five drops on 73 targets, is a minor red flag, but the bigger story is opportunity.
Harrison projects as the clear alpha receiver in a scheme finally built to use his ability instead of forcing him into low-percentage intermediate and deep looks.
Bottom line: This sets up as a breakout season at a draft price that still undersells the talent.
Parker Washington, Jaguars
Parker Washington's target volume nearly quadrupled the last few seasons, from 16 catches to 32 to 58, with touchdowns climbing right alongside it, two, then three, then five. He ranked in the top 17 percent of the league in yards per route run and the top 6 percent in explosive play rate once given a real role, which came after a knee injury to Travis Hunter opened the door.
Over that 11-game stretch as a full-time option, Washington averaged 14.8 PPR points a game, and by Weeks 16 through the playoffs he was seeing 10 targets a game as Jacksonville's featured target. A sixth-round pick who's earned every bit of this role, Washington now faces more competition with Brian Thomas and Jakobi Meyers, which is exactly why the market has tagged him with an affordable average draft position.
Treat that skepticism as an over-correction. The efficiency was real, and the training camp news indicates Washington remains a favorite of Trevor Lawrence's.
Bottom line: Take the discount in drafts.
Chris Godwin, Buccaneers
Chris Godwin was playing at a 19.7 point per game pace through seven games in 2024 before a significant injury wiped out the rest of that season and bled into the next. The good news is that was one injury spanning two years, not a recurring durability issue, and he enters this season fully healthy for the first time in a while.
His connection with Baker Mayfield remains one of the best quarterback-receiver pairings on the roster, evidenced by a 13.5 PPR average even in the stretch Mayfield was playing hurt. At 30 years old, Godwin still projects as Tampa Bay's No. 1 receiver even with Emeka Egbuka in the room, and the market is pricing him like he's washed up.
He isn't.
Bottom line: The age and injury discount is significant, and the upside is well worth drafting him as a WR3.
Tight End
Tyler Warren, Colts
Tyler Warren caught 76 passes for 817 yards and four touchdowns on 112 targets last season, working from the slot, off the line and inline in roughly even measure, which made him one of the most versatile pass-catchers at his position. He also ranked in the top 8 percent in yards after catch and the top 2 percent in explosive play rate.
With Michael Pittman traded to Pittsburgh, Warren is now the top possession receiver in Indianapolis, and his target total could climb into the 140 to 155 range with that competition gone. The swing factor is Daniel Jones, who is returning from an Achilles injury and has a history of missing time; if Riley Leonard or Anthony Richardson takes over, Warren's ceiling takes a hit.
Even so, 140-plus targets is a realistic floor.
Bottom line: He's being drafted in his own tier as a TE4, about 10 picks after Colston Loveland, and that's a fair cost to pay for access to the position's elite tier.
Tucker Kraft, Packers
Tucker Kraft was on a 1,039-yard pace over a full season before a torn ACL in Week 9 ended his 2025 season, and the per-game numbers back up the ceiling: seven and six touchdowns in his two full-health seasons, top 3 percent in yards after catch and a top 6 percent in yards per route run. He also ranked first among tight ends in yards per route run against man coverage.
With Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks both gone from Green Bay's receiver room, Kraft is positioned for a real jump in target volume as a primary option in the passing game. The main swing factor is how his after-the-catch ability looks coming off the ACL tear, though recovery reports have been excellent.
Bottom line: He's being drafted as a TE5, which may already be his ceiling, but the risk is worth taking for anyone not scared off by the injury.
