Every draft season, a handful of players carry an average draft position that badly undersells their actual opportunity. The 12 names below, spanning every skill position, check the same boxes: an expanded target share, a favorable scheme fit or a clean path to touches if the depth chart shifts even slightly. None of these picks require a leap of faith, just a willingness to trust the situation over name recognition.
Keep RotoWire's ADP tool open while you read, since every value case below is measured against where these players are actually being drafted.
Jordan Addison, WR, Vikings - Pick 100
Jordan Addison's touchdowns fell from 10 and nine in 2023 and 2024, respectively, to four last season in 14 games, but that drop traces directly to Minnesota's quarterback situation, not to anything Addison did on the field. With competent quarterback play in his first two seasons, he averaged 67 catches, 893 yards and 9.5 touchdowns a season.
He ranks in the top 25 percent of the league in deep target rate and the top 15 percent in contested catch rate, playing bigger than his frame suggests. Kyler Murray's arrival unlocks a passing offense that J.J. McCarthy simply could not, and coach Kevin O'Connell's system has a track record of getting big seasons out of its second option in the passing game.
There's some offseason baggage attached to his name, but it shouldn't affect his 2026 role. At pick 100, Addison is going roughly 15 spots behind where his talent and target competition justify.
Bottom line: Draft Addison aggressively as a WR4 with top-24 wide receiver upside.
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Jordan Mason, RB, Vikings - Pick 106
Jordan Mason is mainly a handcuff play, but a valuable one. When Aaron Jones missed five weeks last season, Mason handled 16.5 touches per game for 75.3 yards and four touchdowns across four starts, flashing an explosive run rate and yards after contact that both rank in the top 5 percent league-wide.
Minnesota's offensive line ranked fifth in adjusted line yards, so whoever is carrying the ball benefits from a strong blocking unit. The problem is what happens when Jones is healthy.
Mason drops to 7.3 touches and 40 yards a game with almost no receiving work, logging one target or fewer in each of his last 10 games. However, Jones turns 32 in December and has missed six games in a season before, so the age and injury risk are real.
Bottom line: If Jones misses significant time or shows decline, Mason could help win your league.
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Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills - Pick 114
Dalton Kincaid remains one of the most efficient route runners at his position, ranking in the top 3 percent in route efficiency and the top 4 percent in explosive play rate, and he's deployed out wide more than almost any tight end in the league. He's averaging 14.6 yards a catch with a third of his receptions covering at least 20 yards.
The concern is durability. A PCL injury has limited him to less than 40 percent of Buffalo's snaps for stretches, and the coaching staff has discussed further snap restrictions. He's played 41 of a possible 51 games over three seasons.
Last year's line, 39 catches for 571 yards and five touchdowns in 12 games, came with solid per-game efficiency buried underneath the missed time.
Bottom line: At pick 114, Kincaid is a risky TE1 target, but if he stays healthy, you have a league winner on your roster.
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Tyrone Tracy, RB, Giants - Pick 128
Tyrone Tracy has been one of the more consistent floor plays at running back, averaging 11.0 PPR points a game in both of his two full seasons while missing just two games total. He's caught 38 and 36 passes in those two years, giving him a steady receiving role even as his touchdown production stayed modest at six and four scores.
The complication is Cam Skattebo. When healthy, Skattebo claims the early down work and pushes Tracy into a smaller role, though Tracy's value spikes immediately if Skattebo's reckless playing style leads to another long-term injury.
Bottom line: At pick 128, Tracy is a cheap, safe piece of the Giants' running back exposure with real standalone value if he has to take over the lead role.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Buccaneers - Pick 130
Baker Mayfield was playing at a top-12 quarterback pace before a shoulder injury wrecked his 2025 season, posting 23.5 fantasy points a game through the first six weeks even with some of his top playmakers missing time. He's produced 26 or more touchdown passes in five seasons.
His 2024 season was a career year, 41 touchdowns and 4,500 yards, and the incoming offensive staff runs a similar scheme to the one that produced it. The 2025 shoulder injury explains the collapse, and Mayfield has a bad habit of playing through pain even when he shouldn't.
Bottom line: Still, this is about as low-risk as it gets for a pick 130 quarterback: a proven top-12 quarterback ceiling with the fallback plan of a quality streaming and platoon piece if health becomes a question again.
Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens - Pick 131
Mark Andrews had a forgettable 2025, catching just 48 passes for 422 yards and five touchdowns, all career lows, while ranking in the bottom 13 percent of tight ends in catch rate and the bottom six percent in separation. Context matters.
Lamar Jackson battled injuries throughout the year, and Baltimore let both Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar walk this offseason while signing Andrews to a three-year extension, a clear signal of organizational confidence. With the new offensive staff building the passing game around a featured role for its tight end and his connection with Jackson historically elite, this is a clear bounce-back case.
He's being drafted as a TE2 at pick 131, which minimizes the downside if last year's decline carries over even a little.
Bottom line: In the best-case scenario, Andrews is back to pre-2025 form and an easy weekly fantasy staple.
Kyler Murray, QB, Vikings - Pick 136
Kyler Murray landing in Minnesota might be the best thing that's happened to his fantasy value. His career 17-game pace is 624 rushing yards, and coach Kevin O'Connell's scheme is built to maximize a mobile quarterback with easy, well-schemed throws.
He also walks into the best group of pass catchers of his career in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, behind an offensive line that ranked seventh in pass protection, a sizable upgrade from Arizona. Sam Darnold threw for 4,300 yards and 35 touchdowns in this same system in 2024, and by the underlying numbers, Murray profiles as an upgrade on Darnold.
Murray's durability is a concern, as he's missed 19 games in three seasons, though a single ACL injury accounts for absences in two of those seasons rather than two unrelated injuries.
Bottom line: At pick 136, Murray is a favorite late-round quarterback target with top-10 upside. Pair him late with Baker Mayfield as insurance.
Chris Rodriguez, RB, Jaguars - Pick 142
Chris Rodriguez profiles as a touchdown-dependent flex play in a good offense. He's totaled just six receptions in three seasons, so there's no receiving floor here, and he has a career 4.5 yards per carry mark on limited volume.
What he does offer is a clear role: the thunder to Bhayshul Tuten's lightning, handling early down and potential goal-line work in an offense that could produce plenty of scoring chances. If Tuten is unable to show more consistency as a runner, Rodriguez can see a huge increase in work in a high-powered offense.
Bottom line: At pick 142, treat Rodriguez as a bye-week fill-in with touchdown equity and hope for an improved situation as the season unfolds.
De'Zhaun Stribling, WR, 49ers - Pick 145
De'Zhaun Stribling arrives in San Francisco as a second-round pick, 33rd overall, and he fits the offense perfectly: an excellent blocker who separates quickly, exactly what Kyle Shanahan's scheme wants from its outside receivers. He was brought in as the replacement for Jauan Jennings, and San Francisco's receiver room has a well-documented injury history along with age-related concerns that could open a real role earlier than expected.
This is a late-round dart throw, but the profile is worth stashing in as many drafts as possible given how often opportunity has found its way into this receiver room.
Bottom line: If Stribling hits, you'll be starting him every week.
Jalen Nailor, WR, Raiders - Pick 151
Jalen Nailor arrives in Las Vegas after being buried on the depth chart behind Jefferson and Addison in Minnesota, and the fresh start comes with real opportunity. His three-year, $35 million contract isn't true starter money, but it buys him a chance to compete for a major role in a thin Raiders receiver group.
He offers speed and familiarity with coach Klint Kubiak's system, having played in a similar offense with the Vikings, so the scheme transition should be smooth. The NFL production simply isn't there yet, which keeps this squarely in speculative territory.
Bottom line: At pick 151, Nailor is a worthwhile late-round swing on the chance he wins a starting job in a wide-open room.
Ryan Flournoy, WR, Cowboys - Pick 163
Ryan Flournoy locked in the clear third receiver role behind George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb last season, posting 40 catches for 475 yards and four touchdowns on 56 targets in 15 games. The catch rate, 71.4 percent, ranked among the better marks in the league, and he was efficient in the red zone, scoring four times on just seven red-zone targets.
Some of that production came with Lamb sidelined, including a 114-yard breakout in Week 5, but Flournoy held his role even once the Cowboys got healthy. The expected role itself, third option in a good passing offense, is real and locked in.
Bottom line: At pick 163, Flournoy is a deep-league dart throw who becomes an automatic weekly option if Lamb or Pickens misses time.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings - Pick 204
T.J. Hockenson's numbers cratered last season, just 438 yards and three touchdowns, by far his worst full season, and his catches dropped from 95 at his peak to 51. Blame the quarterback play.
J.J. McCarthy struggled badly enough to drag down Minnesota's entire passing attack, and Hockenson still ranked in the top 30 percent of tight ends in open rate and the top 15 percent in catch rate when the ball did come his way. Kyler Murray's arrival should restore real passing volume, and a healthy connection with an accurate, mobile quarterback is exactly what could get Hockenson back to form.
He's 29, so some decline risk is real alongside the upside, but a TE20 average draft position price at pick 204 is a fair bounce-back bet.
Bottom line: Worth a late-round shot to see if real quarterback play brings him back.
