The last two weeks, I've highlighted quarterbacks and the running backs I'm targeting and avoiding in guillotine drafts this season. This week, I shift the focus to wide receivers.
As mentioned last week, my goal is to build a balanced starting lineup, which usually means I'll leave the fourth round with two running backs and two wide receivers on my roster. The exception would be if an elite tight end slips. I won't pass on Brock Bowers, Trey McBride or Colston Loveland at the right price. In that scenario, I'm likely waiting on wide receiver for another round.
I have already finished two important guillotine drafts and have experimented with different builds on the Mock Draft Simulator, so I'm confident that I can build a strong contender in a variety of ways. The key is to target the safe, underrated players and avoid high risk players like those I've highlighted below.
For average draft position, I looked at NFFC Eliminator Championship data, where the sharpest fantasy players are investing big money. Want to play directly against me? I'll be drafting in an Eliminator league with a $100 entry fee on Sept. 1 at 10:30 p.m. EDT. Join here. And if you're new to NFFC, sign up with code THEO for a signup bonus.
The last two weeks, I've highlighted quarterbacks and the running backs I'm targeting and avoiding in guillotine drafts this season. This week, I shift the focus to wide receivers.
As mentioned last week, my goal is to build a balanced starting lineup, which usually means I'll leave the fourth round with two running backs and two wide receivers on my roster. The exception would be if an elite tight end slips. I won't pass on Brock Bowers, Trey McBride or Colston Loveland at the right price. In that scenario, I'm likely waiting on wide receiver for another round.
I have already finished two important guillotine drafts and have experimented with different builds on the Mock Draft Simulator, so I'm confident that I can build a strong contender in a variety of ways. The key is to target the safe, underrated players and avoid high risk players like those I've highlighted below.
For average draft position, I looked at NFFC Eliminator Championship data, where the sharpest fantasy players are investing big money. Want to play directly against me? I'll be drafting in an Eliminator league with a $100 entry fee on Sept. 1 at 10:30 p.m. EDT. Join here. And if you're new to NFFC, sign up with code THEO for a signup bonus.
WRs To Target in Guillotine Leagues
Chris Olave, Saints
NFFC Eliminator ADP: WR12 (pick 30)
When healthy, Olave has been a target hog since his rookie season. The only thing holding him back from fantasy greatness was his inability to find the end zone, but he broke through last year with a nine-touchdown season.
The Saints have the third easiest schedule for fantasy wide receivers based on RotoWire's Strength of Schedule tool, and now first-round pick Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) is unlikely to be available to start the season, which likely will ensure regular double-digit targets for Olave.
There are a lot of strong options in this tier, so I'm not saying to reach for Olave with a top-20 pick, but don't hesitate to click the button if he makes it to you around pick 25.
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Jakobi Meyers, Jaguars
NFFC Eliminator ADP: WR42 (pick 89)
Meyers is the obligatory "boring player who will help your team survive through the first month of the season." After being traded to the Jaguars, Meyers led the receiver room in snaps and got at least six targets in every game Weeks 11-18, which is the kind of consistency we can count on. He's a player who will rarely give you a 100-yard game, but you can almost certainly count on at least four catches for 40 yards, which is all we need early in the season at his cost.
The NFL schedule-makers didn't do the Jaguars receivers any favors, as they will face a who's who of the league's best cornerbacks, including Denzel Ward, Patrick Surtain, Christian Gonzalez, Quinyon Mitchell, Sauce Gardner and Derek Stingley Jr. in the first seven weeks. The good news for Meyers is that I expect Brian Thomas to draw their attention away, making BTJ the player to avoid.
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Jerry Jeudy, Browns
NFFC Eliminator ADP: WR62 (pick 154)
Let me start by stating that I hope I never have to start Jeudy. I simply look at him as a depth piece too many people are ignoring this fantasy draft season. You're telling me I can get a player who has played every game and accumulated 251 targets the last two seasons after pick 150?! There has been a lot of camp excitement for rookies KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, but Jeudy is still atop the depth chart until further notice. Give me Jeudy over Jauan Jennings, Isaac TeSlaa and others being drafted in that range.
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WRs To Avoid in Guillotine Leagues
Rashee Rice, Chiefs
NFFC Eliminator ADP: WR11 (pick 28)
Rice is the easiest fade of all. Just list off every reason I could possibly want to avoid a player in a knockout league, and it's applicable to him:
- The Chiefs have the earliest bye, so if you have Rice, you'll need to find a suitable replacement by Week 5.
- His quarterback is coming back from major surgery and may not play in preseason. Will Mahomes be playing at 100 percent in Week 1?
- Plus, Rice is coming off arthroscopic knee surgery himself and is being eased into drills in training camp.
- A Week 1 matchup with Patrick Surtain and the Broncos, followed by Sauce Gardner and the Colts in Week 2.
- His long-term availability is a concern too. He has only played 28 regular-season games in three seasons. He served 30 days in Dallas County Jail this offseason for violating probation, and although he's not expected to face any further discipline by the NFL, his history suggests that it's valid to be concerned that he could get himself into trouble again.
Malik Nabers, Giants
NFFC Eliminator ADP: WR17 (pick 41)
As of this writing, Nabers (knee) is limited to logging reps in 11-on-11 drills while donning a red non-contact jersey. Will he be ready for Week 1? Even if it's an 80 percent chance that he will be, that's too risky for me to spend a third-round pick on him in a guillotine league. Even in redraft, dynasty or Best Ball, I'd be hesitant to spend a fourth rounder. In an elimination league, I need at least my top four picks in my starting lineup and expected to get a full allotment of playing time in Week 1.
If Nabers were to slip to the fifth round, I would consider him. Most likely, someone else is going to take the risk far before that.
Emeka Egbuka, Buccaneers
NFFC Eliminator ADP: WR18 (pick 42)
Maybe I've been listening to too many Theo Gremminger podcasts, but I'm on the Egbuka bandwagon. I've drafted him quite a bit in best ball this offseason and will have him on my radar in upcoming redraft leagues. I have a different outlook for guillotine leagues.
First, Egbuka (toe) is banged up, and Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles was non-committal regarding the wideout's status for the Sept. 13 season opener. That's concerning.
If he does play, we have to consider the possibility that he's closer to the player from the last eight games last season (261 yards, 0 TDs) than the one who put up 677 yards and 6 TDs in the first nine games.
And it won't be easy because he's facing the second toughest schedule for fantasy wide receivers over the first three weeks. He could be matched up with No. 7 ranked PFF cover corner DJ Turner, Pro Bowler Denzel Ward and No. 1 ranked PFF cover corner James Pierre in September.
