Over the last month, I've highlighted my favorite picks and the biggest busts at each position for guillotine league drafts. This week, I break down the worst pick in each round.
First, let's set some ground rules:
- As I've mentioned many times this summer, I'm pushing quarterbacks down my draft board. In most drafts, I'll probably be the last person to take one. In theory, I could just highlight every QB taken before the sixth round as the "worst" pick. That would get boring. Instead, I'll try to build the worst possible team with a mix of players at each position.
- I'm using NFFC Eliminator Championship average draft position for this exercise.
- I'm not going to call out players whose ADP has drastically fallen due to injury (like Jordyn Tyson) or other factors (like Josh Jacobs).
- I'm only going to go nine rounds deep with this. Considering these are 17-team leagues, that means I'll be analyzing the first 153 picks. After that, we're all taking educated guesses and will ultimately need luck to be on our side for those players to find a path to success.
You're on the clock! Let's see who you should avoid picking.
Round 1
Kenneth Walker, Chiefs
NFFC Eliminator ADP: Pick 17
Kenneth Walker's late-season surge
Over the last month, I've highlighted my favorite picks and the biggest busts at each position for guillotine league drafts. This week, I break down the worst pick in each round.
First, let's set some ground rules:
- As I've mentioned many times this summer, I'm pushing quarterbacks down my draft board. In most drafts, I'll probably be the last person to take one. In theory, I could just highlight every QB taken before the sixth round as the "worst" pick. That would get boring. Instead, I'll try to build the worst possible team with a mix of players at each position.
- I'm using NFFC Eliminator Championship average draft position for this exercise.
- I'm not going to call out players whose ADP has drastically fallen due to injury (like Jordyn Tyson) or other factors (like Josh Jacobs).
- I'm only going to go nine rounds deep with this. Considering these are 17-team leagues, that means I'll be analyzing the first 153 picks. After that, we're all taking educated guesses and will ultimately need luck to be on our side for those players to find a path to success.
You're on the clock! Let's see who you should avoid picking.
Round 1
Kenneth Walker, Chiefs
NFFC Eliminator ADP: Pick 17
Kenneth Walker's late-season surge and Super Bowl MVP performance earned him a lucrative three-year contract with the Chiefs, but there are reasons to pump the brakes on his fantasy value. Before that breakout stretch, Walker averaged just 10.1 PPR points per game through 14 games. He has also never topped 1,100 rushing yards or nine touchdowns in a season.
With Patrick Mahomes never having shared the backfield with a 1,000-yard rusher and Walker now being drafted alongside proven backs like Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams, his current ADP feels too aggressive. The Chiefs' Week 5 bye adds even more risk, as you'll need to find a way to fill his spot in the starting lineup while most other teams in your league are at full strength.
Round 2
Rashee Rice, Chiefs
NFFC Eliminator ADP: Pick 28
Rashee Rice is arguably the easiest fade in a knockout league, with a long list of factors that create early-season and long-term risk. The Chiefs' Week 5 bye is already a problem, while Patrick Mahomes is returning from major surgery and Rice is recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery of his own. Kansas City receivers will also face tough matchups against Denver and Indianapolis to open the season, which means coverage from high-end corners like Patrick Surtain, Riley Moss, Ja'Quan McMillian, Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward. Add in the fact that he has played just 28 games over three seasons and carries off-field concerns, and there are simply too many ways this pick could go wrong.
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Round 3
Drake Maye, Patriots
NFFC Eliminator ADP: Pick 48
Maye is among a small group of players who we can truly consider "league-winner" picks in the 2025 fantasy football season. But that was when he was being drafted in the late rounds as a fringe starter or a backup and facing the friendliest strength of schedule in recent memory. Now the schedule gets tougher, and he's being drafted as the second quarterback off the board behind Josh Allen. What are the odds that he'll actually finish the season as a top three QB? I think the odds are only slightly better than players like Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence, who you can find over 40 picks later.
Round 4
TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots
NFFC Eliminator ADP: Pick 56
Henderson had some amazing spike weeks in his rookie season, along with some serious duds in the games that mattered most down the stretch. Rhamondre Stevenson earned 70 touches during the Super Bowl run, while Henderson saw 35 touches. A repeat of that level of usage to start this season would be devastating for a fourth-round pick.
Invest in Henderson in Best Ball, not in guillotine leagues.
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Round 5
Brian Thomas, Jaguars
NFFC Eliminator ADP: Pick 71
With so much talent in this offense, Thomas is the most likely boom-or-bust candidate from week to week, as Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington take advantage of the easier throws in the middle of the field.
Then there are the matchups that Jacksonville has to face. As the outside receiver, Thomas will probably face the toughest cover corners opponents have to offer. Within the first seven weeks that will include: Denzel Ward, Patrick Surtain, Christian Gonzalez, Quinyon Mitchell, Sauce Gardner and Derek Stingley Jr. I think it's fair to say no other receiver will face such a combination of Pro Bowl DBs in their prime.
Round 6
Sam LaPorta, Lions
NFFC Eliminator ADP: Pick 89
LaPorta has been going off the board as the seventh tight end, making him my easiest tight end fade. A back injury cost him half of last season, and now he's dealing with a hip issue that has put his Week 1 availability in question. Even when healthy, LaPorta could struggle to consistently deliver elite production as the likely fourth option behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions' Week 6 bye only adds to the risk, making LaPorta particularly difficult to justify in an eliminator league where replacing an early-round pick's production is critical.
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Round 7
Makai Lemon, Eagles
NFFC Eliminator ADP: Pick 119
When Philadelphia decided to trade away A.J. Brown and draft Makai Lemon, the fantasy community was quick to embrace the rookie as the second wide receiver behind DeVonta Smith. Then Lemon battled through a nagging hamstring throughout the preseason and saw his ADP slip. In my opinion, it's still too high. At least early in the season, I'm expecting Dontayvion Wicks to be the more reliable target opposite Smith. With that being the case, waiting until the 10th round to get Wicks instead looks like the much more attractive option.
Round 8
Brandon Aubrey, Cowboys
NFFC Eliminator ADP: Pick 131
The last couple years, fans have been brainwashed into thinking Aubrey is a huge difference maker over every other kicker in the league. Having a star on your helmet and kicking 60-yarders will have that effect on people. But this isn't 2022 Travis Kelce, who lapped the field at the tight end position!
In reality, Aubrey was the third highest-scoring kicker in fantasy last season and tied for second best in 2024 with several others trailing closely behind. I do rank him as my top kicker but not multiple rounds ahead of the next best at the position, which is what the market has decided is the right price.
I'll grab a backup RB or WR with upside here instead and add a different reliable kicker several rounds later.
Round 9
Jauan Jennings, Vikings
NFFC Eliminator ADP: Pick 141
Volume is king, and with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson around, I just don't think Jennings will see enough target volume in this offense to make a significant fantasy impact. Jennings may be more talented than a lot of the other players getting drafted in this range, but most of them have a better path to fantasy production.
Unless Jefferson or Addison miss time, I think Jennings will be a much more useful real-life football player than fantasy football player.
