NFL Futures: Best Bets for Division Winners, Conference Champions and Super Bowl
The time has come. The NFL has returned to us. Before we claim what is rightfully ours, let's talk for a second about the teams you like to make some noise - or not - this season.
We've already discussed awards, stats will be updated next week, but the last piece of the puzzle needs to be added.
Now, we talk team stats.
Division Winners
AFC East: Buffalo Bills -156 (DK)
I procrastinated a bit with my NFL preseason articles, so while you're reading this the Pats already lost to Seattle. Buffalo will have a tough task against Houston in Week 1 - where I think they lose.
Despite me picking the Bills last year, we can only chalk that up to a flukey surprise from New England. Nonetheless, Buffalo was strong a season ago winning 12 games. There were a few changes like HC Sean McDermott is out, Joe Brady is in. The Bills have a new stadium and chip on their shoulder. While the window isn't closed for a Super Bowl run, it won't last forever.
Buffalo is in prime position to retake the throne and secure a high-seed for the postseason. Although I believe they lose in Week 1, the division belongs to them.
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens +102 (DK)
Speaking of a bizarre fluke, the Steelers somehow won 10 games amid a widely disappointing AFC North. The Ravens missed the playoffs with a lot going wrong. Like Buffalo, it's the dawn of a new day with John Harbaugh out and Jesse Minter in.
Lamar Jackson is back healthy and ready to wreak havoc, while King Henry is looking to keep his anomaly going. Frankly, I've never been much of a Ravens or Lamar supporter, but I do believe they will be dangerous this year; including the rebirth of a once great defense.
While the Bengals constantly are the popular pick every year - and a team I would like to see win - I can't get behind them until they prove they can stay healthy and have a shred of a decent defense.
Baltimore opens with a favorable first seven games: @ Indy, vs. New Orleans, @ Dallas, vs. Tennessee, @ Atlanta, @ Cleveland, vs. Cincy. This feels like 5-2 worst case scenario.
Getting the Ravens at plus-money feels borderline illegal.
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars +240 (MGM)
Last year, I took a big swing for the fences in trying to get a jump on the Cam Ward era in Tennessee, but I'll stick to my claim that I'm not wrong... just early. I won't do that to start the season.
A 13-win surprise Jags team had their best season in years, narrowly edging out the 12-win Texans. Despite that, Houston is almost even money on every book and a sizeable favorite over the Jags to repeat. I get that it's most likely a coin flip between these two, but the odds are questionable.
The Texans defense is disgusting, which is why they will be in maybe every game, but the Jags didn't lose enough to think they can't go back-to-back.
It will be an interesting race, but I think Jacksonville is a more well-rounded team at a much better price.
AFC West: Denver Broncos +210 (BetMGM)
One of my best hits in 2025 I gave you was Denver at +310 to win the AFC West. Take a look at the board this year, a lot of varying market opinions. One some books, Denver is the favorite, while others have them as the third option.
There's too much hoopla on the Chargers since they've proved nothing. I'm not buying until they show me something, so they're out for me. Obviously, KC is getting glazed by the market after missing the playoffs last year and Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL. I am on the KC bandwagon this year though.
However, like last year I don't believe Denver is getting enough love. They added Jaylen Waddle and Jonah Coleman to the offense, while Bo Nix is getting better under Sean Payton's tutelage. The defense remains one of the league's best as well.
Week 1 these two teams square off, where I like the Broncos to win. I won't like, the first six games are brutal for Denver going @ KC, vs. Jacksonville, vs. LAR, @ San Fran, @ LAC, vs. Seattle, but the schedule clears up considerably until the last few games. If they can go even 3-3 in that stretch, the division is still open.
AFC Champion: Chiefs +750 (DraftKings)
Some of you may be confused on the above layout. I understand. But truthfully, I do think KC will be good this regular season - even if they don't win the division - and regain their vintage style in the playoffs. After their disaster season, I believe everybody is refocused on getting back to glory.
There may be a lot of challenges this year with an aging defense that lost star CB Trent McDuffie. How does Mahomes rebound? Valid questions. I think they will find their groove again.
Overall in the AFC, I can't bet Buffalo and Baltimore when they have consistently shown they can't execute. Cincy has too many question marks. Houston has an extremely unreliable QB. LAC hasn't been able to get out of their own way in decades. New England is heading for a dive this year.
Considering the +750 you get on KC, it's a strong ticket to have. But I'd also say having a 10/1 on Denver is great as well because I think they're on the cusp. I'd be shocked if one of these two wasn't at least in the AFC title game come January.
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys +195 (Bet Rivers)
I may regret saying this, but I got a little love for Dallas this year. Not too much, but enough where winning the division is reasonable to me. While Philly is being slept on - even as the favorite - there is a lot to like about this Cowboys team.
The offense should be lethal this year with an improved defense. They draft a game-breaking safety in Caleb Downs this spring to hold down the secondary with a solid amount of front seven options, at least on paper.
On offense, it's an array of weapons with the dangerous WR combo of Cee Dee Lamb and George Pickens, along with the resurgence of Javonte Williams leading the way behind Dak Prescott.
It should be a competitive division, but Dallas may have enough juice this year to get it done with 10 wins.
The +195 price is too big on a team with this much talent.
NFC North: Chicago Bears +345 (Circa)
A lot of disrespect to the reigning NFC North champs where they are projected third on every major book. My official pick last year was the Vikings around the same number, but I did mention I thought Chicago at 6/1 was worth a play as well.
The same reasons why I faded Green Bay and Detroit last year apply to this one. The Packers are a disaster waiting to happen - yes, I know they won 9 games in 2025. There's a lot of questions with Josh Jacobs missing an extended period of time, the offense is shaky at best with hit and miss outings, plus the defense could bad even when Micah Parsons returns.
The Lions may have won 9 games as well, but man they had some stinkers with a bad defense. The offense is the truth as everybody knows. It's going to be a monster year for Jahmyr Gibbs as the work horse. Status quo for Jared Goff, ARSB, and company. But the defense will probably stink again.
The Vikings can be the sneak play here with a 5/1 price if Kyler Murray actually acts like he wants to be a pro QB. But Chicago being disrespected to this juicy number is crazy to me. The defense should be fine. The offense should be really strong behind Caleb Williams, a nice ground attack, and a primed Luther Burden ready for a breakout.
NFC South: New Orleans Saints +260 (MGM)
This might end up being the worst division in football. Atlanta will be terrible most likely. Tampa Bay will be competitive and fun, but most probably be trending downwards. Carolina and New Orleans may have flipped the division after all.
The difference for me why I like NOLA over Carolina is simply because I like Tyler Shough a lot more. Under Kellen Moore, the Saints look primed for a division title. When Shough took over last year, there was an obvious jolt throughout the organization. There's enough weapons on offense to contend with the big boys of the NFL. The defense is a concern, but might end up being 'good enough.'
The Saints at these odds is a strong pick.
NFC West: LA Rams +175 (The Score)
The actual best division bet from me last year was Seattle at +550. I couldn't believe people were so down on them. There's probably people out there who still are this year. Nevertheless, it's probably the best division in the NFL again with a virtual three-way coinflip.
Assessing the Rams getting bombarded by the 49ers in Australia thanks to the most idiotic travel planning, the Rams are still the favorite across the board. Seattle, after a clutch win against the Pats, is most like the second favorite despite Sam Darnold missing some time.
Early in the season, this is more likely a true in-season bet for me to win the NFC West, but ultimately I do believe in LA. Coming into the year, like most people, I liked them to win the NFC. I'm not jumping ship or writing them off because of one game where the coaching staff and NFL put them in a horrible situation. By the way, ENOUGH WITH THE INTERNATIONAL GAMES!
LAR is still the most talented roster in this division and they will be hungry to right the ship.
NFC Champion: Rams +365 (DraftKings)
I mentioned above a lot of reasons I like the Rams. There's so much talent, especially the improvements on the defensive side of the ball with the additions of Myles Garrett, McDuffie, and Aaron Donald returning. The offense will be elite.
It's wild to see how the three NFC west teams are the favorites. Otherwise, I'm not buying Philly, Detroit, or Dallas to seriously make a big enough push to get to the Super Bowl. Chicago could be interesting if they can consistently play well enough. Minnesota could be a sleeper at 22/1 depending on Kyler since they have one of the best rosters in the NFL otherwise.
At the end of the day, this very well could be the last shot for Stafford and the Rams. In my opinion, it is theirs to lose.
Super Bowl Best Bet
Chiefs +1700 (DraftKings)
I know I had it last year. I know. Chiefs vs. Rams will be a Super Bowl matchup that feeds families. 17/1 on Patrick Mahomes is primed for a revenge tour.
