AFC South Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

This article will analyze offseason coaching and personnel changes in the AFC South to figure out what it means for each team's offensive scheme in 2026. Only the Titans brought in a new coaching staff, but there are still mysteries to solve in Houston, Indianapolis and Jacksonville.

For each of those three teams, a deep dive on the playcaller and his past can help us figure out what might happen in 2026. If you're looking for previous editions of our series on offensive schemes and offseason changes, you'll find the first three below:

If you're looking for similar breakdowns on the other seven divisions, they can be found below:

AFC North Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

AFC East Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

AFC West Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

NFC North Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

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NFC South Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

NFC East Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

NFC West Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

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Houston Texans

• Key Coaching Changes: None
• Key Losses: RB Nick Chubb, WR Christian Kirk, TE Harrison Bryant
• Key Additions: RB David Montgomery, TE Marlin Klein (R2), TE Foster Moreau, OL upgrades

The Texans largely opted for continuity this offseason, retaining both coordinators and the vast majority of last year's starters. The one big exception is the offensive line, where first-round pick Keylan Rutledge (C/G) teams up with free-agent signings Braden Smith (RT) and Wyatt Teller (LG).

The rushing attack will be spearheaded by a newcomer as well, after the Texans gave up a fourth-round pick and change for former Lions running back David Montgomery.

Quick Hits - What to Expect from Houston's Offense

1. More 12/13 Personnel.
   1. Last year: led league in 3+ WR, finished 2nd in 6+ OL.
2. No fullback.
3. RB David Montgomery on duo and power runs.
4. Play-action shots to WRs Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins.
   1. Note: Monitor Week 1-2 snap shares for Montgomery and Higgins.

Stay informed with fantasy football news and track usage roles with the NFL depth charts.

Personnel Changes

The Montgomery signing and O-line overhaul rightfully get most of the attention, but Houston's quietly upgraded TE room should also have a major impact on the team, allowing for more diverse personnel groupings.

The Texans have backup tight ends Brevin Jordan (ACL) and Cade Stover coming back from injury-plagued seasons, plus they spent $3 million guaranteed on Foster Moreau and a second-round pick on Marlin Klein. There's probably not room for all four on the roster behind returning starter Dalton Schultz, so it'll be a tough competition this summer as the Texans likely shift toward more multi-TE groupings.

They don't have a fullback on the roster, and the biggest change at WR is swapping out Christian Kirk (49ers) for a now-healthy Tank Dell. It's not clear what Dell has to offer, so Jayden Higgins remains a strong favorite for the No. 2 receiver job.

Higgins emerged as the second-best receiving threat down the stretch last year, but his snap/route shares were often modest, with the Texans dividing WR snaps between Higgins, Kirk, Xavier Hutchinson and Jaylin Noel. The offense's only true standout performer was Nico Collins, who should appreciate having a bit more help after the Texans improved their running game (at least on paper). They may or may not end up running more often, but the personnel points toward Collins drawing targets on a huge portion of his routes again.

From a fantasy standpoint, the key snap shares to watch early in the season will be Higgins' and Montgomery's. We want to see if Higgins is getting a full starter's workload and how much work Montgomery is ceding to backup Woody Marks.

What Will Change Structurally?

Nick Caley, 43, enters his second season as Houston's offensive coordinator after calling plays for the first time in his coaching career last season. He previously worked under Bill Belichick and Sean McVay, mostly as a TEs coach.

Caley's debut as a playcaller was disappointing for fantasy players and Texans fans alike. The Texans had a below-average offense and elite defense; their running game was especially inefficient, and C.J. Stroud crumbled in the playoffs. Before the postseason, Houston's passing game was statistically competent if unexciting (6.9 YPA, 24:9 TD:INT).

The Texans finished right around league average for use of play-action passes (14.7%) and motion at the snap (36.0%), with not much change in either category compared to 2024 under Slowik. Still, there were plenty of unique things to note about Houston's offense last year, including a couple hints of the McVay influence:

• No. 1 in use of 3+ WR formations (70.9% of snaps)
• No. 2 in use of six-OL formations (18.2% of snaps)
• No. 2 in use of bunch formations (22.5% of snaps)

Big picture, Caley wanted to move Houston's running game in the same direction McVay moved the Rams' rushing attack back when Caley was with the team. The results were uninspiring, but so were the team's running backs, tight ends and offensive linemen. All three areas now appear upgraded, and most of the carries will go to Montgomery, who proved his expertise on 'duo' runs (and other power concepts) under Dan Campbell in Detroit.

Some of what Caley did formation-wise in 2025 was intentional, but there was also a huge aspect of forced adaptation after TE Brevin Jordan suffered an ACL tear in August and TE Cade Stover broke his foot in September. The lack of a reliable backup tight end inspired the use of six-OL formations, starting in Week 4, and those looks remained a big part of the offense after Stover's return because they had proven reasonably effective -- 9.4 YPA, 3.9 YPC, 48.9% success rate with 6+ OL on first/second down.

Down the stretch, once Stover was healthy, Caley primarily used six-OL formations with two TEs and one WR (instead of one TE and two WRs, or no TE and three WRs). It was almost strictly a rushing tactic, however, with a 64:8 ratio of run attempts to pass attempts out of the two-TE, six-OL formations (including playoffs).

Caley presumably is smart enough to realize that it isn't some great efficiency hack to put a sixth fat guy on the field for first-down snaps in neutral situations. Houston's restocked TE room should allow Caley to use 12 and 13 personnel more often on early downs, though it won't be shocking if the Texans still finish top 10 in usage of 11 personnel.

Indianapolis Colts

• Key Coaching Changes: None
• Key Losses: WR Michael Pittman, RB Ameer Abdullah, RT Braden Smith
• Key Additions: WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, RB Seth McGowan (R7)

The Colts had a quiet offseason after trading their 2026 first-round pick for CB Sauce Gardner last fall. They then traded away WR Michael Pittman this spring, and haven't signed or drafted a comparable replacement (though rumors connect them to multiple veteran wideouts this summer).

There were no major coaching changes and minimal personnel improvements, with the Colts instead banking on better health for their star players, namely Gardner, QB Daniel Jones (Achilles), DT DeForest Buckner (neck) and CB Charvarius Ward. Before the injuries piled up, Indianapolis was at/near the top of the league for numerous offensive efficiency stats in the first half of the season.

Quick Hits - What to Expect from the Colts' Offense

1. Mix of 11/12/13 personnel - heavy on 12 relative to league averages.
2. Huge workloads for RB Jonathan Taylor early in the season.
   1. Same for TE Tyler Warren and RB Josh Downs?
3. High play-action rate, per usual.
4. Depressed PROE and pace early in the season?

Personnel Changes

The most interesting thing here is subject to change -- the lack of a replacement for Michael Pittman. When combined with Daniel Jones' rehab from an Achilles injury and Alec Pierce's rehab from ankle surgery, the logical conclusion is that coach Shane Steichen will unleash a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor from multi-TE formations early in the season.

Steichen hasn't used a traditional fullback since becoming the Colts' head coach in 2023, and the team isn't carrying one on the roster at training camp. The curious thing, to me, is that Indianapolis hasn't made any moves at WR or TE to help offset the loss of Pittman.

It looks like the exact same group as last year at tight end, with Tyler Warren backed by Mo Alie-Cox, Drew Ogletree and Will Mallory. The only new addition is undrafted rookie Carson Towt, a 6-foot-8 college basketball player who is already 25 years old.

Things at least shape up nicely for WR Josh Downs to get a lot of snaps and targets in a contract year, with early chatter hinting at more playing time in 12 personnel. 

What Will Change Structurally?

The Colts have already shifted away from 11 personnel and toward 12 and 13. We could now see even more of that, especially early in the season, with Taylor presumably shouldering a huge burden due to the passing game's clipped wings.

Colts' Personnel Groupings Under Shane Steichen (2023-25)

Taylor doesn't show meaningful individual splits in rushing efficiency between 11 and 12 personnel, the two groupings in which he's taken the vast majority of his snaps the past three years. He's been effective in both, and he's also done well in heavier groupings (13, 22, etc.), including at the goal line. Steichen's scheme has been a good fit, but Taylor likely is at the level of talent where every scheme fits well if the guys around him do their jobs.

Last year, the Colts finished third in play-action rate (19.0%), after ranking eighth and sixth in Steichen's first two seasons. More than half of the play-action snaps came from 12 personnel, where Jones ranked among the passing efficiency leaders for both play-action throws and regular dropbacks.

To be fair, Jones also had strong numbers in clear passing situations, ranking eighth among QBs in EPA added on 3rd-and-medium/long, with a 67.6 completion percentage and 8.7 YPA. The Colts' passing success wasn't just driven by fear of Jonathan Taylor, but there is reason to doubt that the offense will now pick up where it left off before injuries torpedoed Jones' 2025 campaign (and the team's playoff hopes).

Steichen's offense needs talent and better injury luck more so than structural surgery; he coaxed competent partial seasons out of Gardner Minshew (2023) and Joe Flacco (2024) before doing his best work with Jones in 2025.

Jones even put up strong fantasy numbers in the first half of the year, combining standout passing efficiency with four TDs on QB sneaks. He didn't offer much rushing value otherwise, getting just four designed carries all year. Coming back from an Achilles injury, Jones may now cede the sneaks to a backup QB or tight end.

While Jones himself doesn't offer much fantasy appeal, there's reasonable hope that the Colts' lack of depth can lead to volume surges for the top guys -- RB Jonathan Taylor, TE Tyler Warren, WR Alec Pierce (ankle) and WR Josh Downs. If things go as planned, a huge season from Taylor and an improved defense will allow the Colts to stay competitive even if the passing game is a far cry from the first half of last year.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Key Coaching Changes: None
• Key Losses: RB Travis Etienne, TE Johnny Mundt, WR Dyami Brown, WR Tim Patrick
• Key Additions: RB Chris Rodriguez, TE Nate Boerkircher (R2), TE Tanner Koziol (R5), WR Josh Cameron (R6), TE Quintin Morris

The Colts had the league's hottest offense during the first half of last season, but the Jaguars took over that honor later in the year en route to a division title. Liam Coen's first year as head coach proved just as impressive as his lone season calling plays in Tampa Bay the year before. 

Trevor Lawrence threw for 29 touchdowns and ran another nine in, finishing as a top-five fantasy QB despite his mediocre results through the first two months under Coen. A quiet offseason hasn't done much to slow the optimism in Duval, but fantasy drafters are approaching the situation more cautiously due to uncertainty about the target/touch distribution at WR and RB.

Quick Hits - What to Expect from Jacksonville's Offense

1. 11 personnel on 60-65% of snaps, solidly above league-average.
2. More 12/13 personnel, fewer six-OL snaps.
   1. Last year: 6OL on 9.5% of plays.
3. Backfield committee.
   1. Bhayshul Tuten vs. Chris Rodriguez for starting job?
4. Uncertainty over 12 personnel snaps at WR.
   1. Parker Washington vs. Jakobi Meyers?
5. Aggressive downfield passing.

Personnel Changes

The Jaguars avoided splashy additions, bringing in RB Chris Rodriguez (foot) to "replace" Travis Etienne, who left for New Orleans in free agency.

The team also avoided major losses on the offensive side, where every starter besides Etienne is set to return. Much of the preseason discussion has focused on either the post-Etienne backfield or the expectation that WR/CB Travis Hunter will spend far more time on defense.

The Jags certainly look to need Hunter on defense more, on account of Greg Newsome's departure in free agency combined with Parker Washington's breakout last season. The team has made it clear Hunter will play both ways, but that could mean five snaps, 40 snaps or anywhere in between.

In the backfield, Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez are expected to compete for carries, while 2025 seventh-round pick LeQuint Allen is heavily favored to keep his third-down role. Allen quietly played 22.5 percent of the snaps last year, getting just 23 carries and 11 targets in the process. Trevor Lawrence has never been a big fan of checking down, but Allen's role could still be a minor nuisance for fantasy managers.

Washington, Brian Thomas and Jakobi Meyers give Lawrence diverse skillsets to work with at wide receiver, and Brenton Strange is a reliable starting tight end who holds his own as both a blocker and pass catcher.

Thomas' size/speed combination probably makes him the strongest bet for 12-personnel snaps among the WRs, but he could also be vulnerable to losing some of the three-wide snaps to Travis Hunter if he plays the same way he did for most of last season (not that Hunter was any better). Washington and Meyers, meanwhile, may end up competing for some of the same routes and/or targets. Both are capable on the perimeter but better in the slot.

The Jaguars made big-ish moves to upgrade depth behind Strange this offseason, signing Quintin Morris to a one-year contract before spending a second-round pick on Nate Boerkircher and a fifth-round selection on Tanner Koziol. While draft capital suggests he's expected to contribute early, Boerkircher is viewed as a block-first prospect who is unlikely to offer fantasy value.

The Jaguars didn't carry a fullback last year and don't have one on the roster this summer. Their 21 personnel snaps last year (2.9% of the team total) were dual-RB packages.

What Will Change Structurally?

The Jaguars will obviously want to build on last year's success rather than making wholesale changes, but one of Coen's strengths is that he's constantly adapting and changing his offense.

In his lone season as Tampa Bay's playcaller, he maintained an efficient offense when WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin suffered major injuries, shifting toward more focus on the RBs and TE Cade Otton. That Bucs team had a fantastic offensive line, to be fair, but Coen then produced similarly strong results with a much lesser O-line in Jacksonville.

From the standpoint of personnel groupings, Coen's Jacksonville offense was similar to his Tampa Bay outfit, with the biggest overall change being increased use of six-OL formations (9.7% of snaps for the 2025 Jags, compared to 1.7% for the 2026 Bucs). The Jaguars ran 104 plays from those formations, but just 16 were pass attempts (5.8 YPA) versus 83 rushes (3.1 YPC).

Liam Coen's Personnel Usage as an NFL Playcaller

The Jaguars weren't bad from six-OL formations last year, with 106 plays yielding a 49.5 percent success rate. The per-play averages look bad because these snaps disproportionately came in short-yardage spots or other likely running situations.

The more important thing to note, however, is that more than half of the six-OL snaps occurred during a three-week stretch for which Strange was absent. Prior to Strange's absence, they ran just five six-OL plays over the six weeks. Down the stretch, it was essentially just a short-yardage tactic, with five or fewer six-OL snaps in all but two games after Strange returned.

With Strange healthy and the TE depth improved, there's an excellent chance Jacksonville deploys more multi-TE looks (12/13 personnel) in 2026, though perhaps in place of six-OL formations more so than three-wide ones. After all, the Jags averaged 7.4 YPA and 4.6 YPC from 11 personnel last year, ranking eighth in success rate (49.4%) and 11th in yards per play (5.4).

If we only look at the post-bye numbers and include the playoffs, Jacksonville's 6.5 yards per play from 11 personnel tied New England for first place. The Jags may have upgraded their tight ends this offseason, but the wide receiver room still looks stronger overall, even if we treat Travis Hunter as a wild card rather than a sure contributor.

We've also seen that Coen is highly adaptable to his personnel, moving from a screen/YAC-heavy approach with the 2024 Bucs (6.8 aDOT, 29th) to a more downfield-oriented passing game in Jacksonville (8.9 aDOT, 4th). He also upped the play-action rate, from 12.5% in Tampa Bay to 14.6% in Jacksonville (league-average in 2025 was 15.0%).

Last year's Jaguars finished 10th in PROE (-0.1%), compared to a 15th-place ranking for the 2024 Bucs (-1.7%). However, that Bucs team had some pass-heavy stretches when the WRs were healthy, and last year's Jags were seventh in PROE after their Week 8 bye.

There's potential for a pass-heavy offense here, especially if the running backs disappoint post-Etienne. Pace is less promising, with Coen encouraging his QBs to use the play clock and varied snap counts to their advantage.

Still, it's a promising situation in terms of the overall production expectation. The lack of one or two clear volume hogs might be frustrating for some fantasy players, but it also presents a breakout opportunity for the likes of Tuten, Rodriguez and Washington, in addition to the possibility of a BTJ rebound.

Tennessee Titans

• Key Coaching Changes: HC Robert Saleh, OC Brian Daboll, DC Gus Bradley
• Key Losses: TE Chig Okonkwo, WR Van Jefferson
• Key Additions: WR Carnell Tate (R1), WR Wan'Dale Robinson, TE Daniel Bellinger, RB Nicholas Singleton (R5), TE Jaren Kanak (R7)

The Titans have a new coaching staff and a better supporting cast around 2025 first overall pick Cam Ward, who struggled through an ugly rookie season on arguably the league's worst roster. The Titans probably still have a bottom-five roster by most measures, but they at least secured clear upgrades at wide receiver and got rid of an overmatched coaching staff.

Three of the offseason additions on offense -- WR Wan'Dale Robinson, TE Daniel Bellinger, C Austin Schlottman -- spent the past few years playing for new Titans offensive coordinator Brian Daboll (who coached the Giants from 2022 to mid-2025). With defensive-minded Robert Saleh taking over as head coach, Daboll should essentially have full control of the Titans' offense.

Quick Hits - What to Expect from Tennessee's Offense

1. Mix of 11 and 12 personnel. No fullback.
   1. Could see some 13 personnel as well.
   2. Split of 11 vs. 12 key for Wan'Dale Robinson?
2. Backfield Committee.
   1. Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears, maybe Nicholas Singleton.
3. Pass rate and PROE highly variable depending on confidence in QB Cam Ward.
4. Play-action passes on early downs.
5. Full time role for WR Carnell Tate in September?

Personnel Changes

The Titans brought in Daniel Bellinger as a more blocking-focused replacement for Chig Okonkwo, likely setting the table for second-year tight end Gunnar Helm to significantly increase his route share. Helm's route and target volume were similar to Okonkwo's over the second half of last season.

It is possible that Helm misses out on some routes/snaps on early downs, as the Titans have Bellinger and blocking specialist David Martin-Robinson as options there. They otherwise roster Kylen Granson and rookie seventh-round pick Jaren Kanak, both of whom look like depth for Helm more so than any kind of threat.

The depth at WR arguably looks better than at TE, with 2025 starters Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor moving down the depth chart to make way for Tate and Robinson. The Titans also reached an agreement with Calvin Ridley to guarantee a portion of his salary while lowering the overall amount. Ridley is 31 years old and coming back from a fibula fracture, so there is some chance that Dike or Ayomanor proves the better option.

There's also some question about Robinson's usage and whether he'll get significant playing time in two-wide formations. Daboll typically limited Robinson to 11 personnel when they were together in New York, but that changed last year, and Robinson responded with his first 1,000-yard season. While Robinson won't reach 140 targets again unless things go horribly wrong for the Titans, it isn't entirely out of the question to get some of the routes in 12 personnel.

Robinson doesn't necessarily need those snaps to have fantasy value, but they could end up being a big deal if Brian Daboll likes the pairing of Helm and Bellinger at tight end. If not Robinson, the Titans could use Ridley, Ayomanor or Dike across from Tate in 12 personnel (I'm assuming Tate will be a full-time player, though not necessarily Week 1).

Whatever the exact breakdown of playing time, Robinson's contract and scheme familiarity suggest he'll be a big part of the passing game. That may be especially true early in the year, given Tennessee's youth at wide receiver.

The Titans' backfield mostly looks the same as last year, with fifth-round pick Nicholas Singleton a candidate to push Tony Pollard or Tyjae Spears for playing time as the year progresses. The upside case for all of these guys probably entails Pollard or Spears being traded at some point. Pollard and Spears were quietly the real-life strength of an otherwise hopeless team last year.

What Will Change Structurally?

Daboll's teams in New York didn't use a traditional fullback, and the Titans aren't carrying one on their roster this summer. We'll see a mix of 11, 12 and 13 personnel, with Daboll's track record from both Buffalo and New York hinting at a preference for a lot of 11 personnel. The one major note here is that he used far more 12 personnel last year, though perhaps in response to TE depth being better than WR depth in New York (typically both areas were weaknesses under Daboll).

Brian Daboll Personnel Groupings as Playcaller (2018-25)

Daboll is otherwise, um, kind of confusing? If you looked at the snapshot of his teams' offensive statistics, it'd be easy to quickly dismiss him as a 'Josh Allen merchant'. Before he landed in Buffalo, Daboll had been a coordinator for three different teams (CLE, MIA, KC) over four seasons (2009-12), never ranking better than 22nd in yardage, and never even sniffing a playoff appearance.

He then spent four years as an assistant with the Patriots and one year as the playcaller at Alabama before resurfacing as an NFL playcaller (and OC) with the Bills in 2018. Even that first year in Buffalo was unimpressive, but Daboll and Allen then ripped off three straight seasons ranking top 10 in both points and yardage, including No. 1 finishes for both stats in 2021.

Daboll then jumped to the Giants as head coach in 2022 and made the playoffs with an offense that had Darius Slayton and Richie James as the top WRs. Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones combined for more than 2,000 rushing yards, with Barkley also leading the team in targets (76).

It was all downhill from there from an organizational standpoint, in part to persistent injury issues on the offensive side and persistent poor play on defense. Daboll played a role in those shortcomings, but there were also some weeks where the Giants looked surprisingly competent while giving a ton of snaps to practice-squad types at multiple positions.

Over his four-year coaching tenure, the Giants ranked seventh in play-action rate (15.9%), 27th in PROE (-6.1%) and 22nd in use of motion at the snap (25.8%). Daboll's use of pre-snap motion significantly increased over time, while the play-action rate was mostly around league-average after peaking at 19.3% (3rd) in Year 1. Repeated injuries to Daniel Jones and his blockers played a role in that, of course.

The Giants had solid play volume under Daboll -- at least by bad-team standards -- ranking 13th, 20th, 14th and 8th in plays per game. Part of that was playing with pace, but there was week-to-week variability, depending (again) on who was healthy and who wasn't.

Daboll's Bills teams, despite being much better, finished with similar results for plays per game -- 19th, 16th, 15th and 3rd. Over the four-year period (2018-21), Buffalo ranked fourth in play-action rate (17.2%), ninth in PROE (-0.4%) and 17th in motion at the snap (17.8%).

It's a boring answer, but stuff like pace and pass rate will largely come down to Cam Ward's development and how much Daboll trusts him. For all his faults as a head coach, Daboll at least proved highly variable in his offensive approach, including a shift toward more multi-TE formations toward the end of his tenure.

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