It's the first full slate of the 2026 NFL season, and we have the best anytime TD scorer bets for Week 1 inside our new betting tool.
Thirteen games make up today's Sunday slate, and Break the Plane's model has already run every one of them through its full pipeline — a team-level touchdown projection for each game, blended with individual opportunity share (red zone touches, target share, alignment, matchup) to produce a touchdown probability for all 70 rostered scorers in action. This isn't a roundup of what other outlets are saying; it's what the model itself is projecting, price-checked against the market where odds exist.
Take a look at the model's favorite anytime TD picks today below.
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Anytime TD Scorer Predictions Today (Week 1)
| Player | Matchup | Model Prob. | Best Price (Book) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | BAL vs IND | 65.8% | -180 (Fanatics) | Chalk |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET vs NO | 61.9% | +110 (bet365) | +EV (+11.9%) |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET vs NO | 58.7% | -250 (Fanatics) | Chalk |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL vs PIT | 56.1% | -140 (Fanatics) | Chalk |
| Aaron Jones | MIN vs GB | 56.0% | +175 (Fanatics) | +EV (+18.3%) |
| Chase Brown | CIN vs TB | 55.8% | -135 (FanDuel) | Chalk |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN vs TB | 54.8% | -115 (bet365) | Chalk |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC vs ARI | 53.1% | -179 (Caesars) | Plus matchup |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND vs BAL | 52.9% | -175 (Fanatics) | Chalk |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI vs WAS | 51.1% | -125 (FanDuel) | Plus matchup |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG vs DAL | 47.3% | +125 (Fanatics) | Plus matchup |
| Javonte Williams | DAL vs NYG | 47.2% | -155 (FanDuel) | Tough matchup |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT vs ATL | 46.5% | +155 (Fanatics) | +EV (+2.0%) |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG vs DAL | 46.0% | +380 (DraftKings) | +EV (+22.7%), plus matchup |
| Bucky Irving | TB vs CIN | 45.3% | +140 (Fanatics) | Due (3 games) |
| James Cook | BUF vs HOU | 45.2% | +100 (DraftKings) | Chalk |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV vs MIA | 44.3% | -110 (bet365) | Plus matchup |
| Malik Davis | DAL vs NYG | 37.7% | +800 (DraftKings) | +EV (+25.9%), long shot |
Prices shown are the best price Break the Plane found across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Bally Bet, BetRivers, bet365, Fanatics and Caesars as of this writing and will move before kickoff — always confirm your own book's live line before betting. "+EV" marks players where the model's probability sits meaningfully above what the market is pricing; "Chalk" marks the model agreeing with a short-priced favorite; "Plus/Tough matchup" reflects the opposing defense's touchdown-rate tier.
Best Anytime TD Scorer Bets Today
Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown: -180 (Fanatics)
Henry grades out as the highest-probability scorer on the entire Sunday slate, and the model isn't fighting the market here — Fanatics has him even shorter than Break the Plane's own number. He's carrying a 70.3% backfield rushing share and a 44.7% red-zone share, the exact combination that produces the floor this price demands. It's not a value play, but it's the single most reliable projection on the board.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown: +110 (bet365)
This is the clearest gap between model and market on the slate. St. Brown projects at 61.9% — a top-three probability across all of Sunday — while bet365's +110 implies just 47.6%. The Saints grade as an Elite-tier defense by touchdowns allowed, which is likely why the market hasn't caught up, but Detroit's offense still projects to score close to 3.2 team touchdowns in this game, and St. Brown's target and red-zone shares put him at the front of that line regardless of who's across from him.
Aaron Jones Anytime Touchdown: +175 (Fanatics)
The model's largest edge among plays with realistic hit rates. Jones projects at 56.0% while the market is pricing him closer to a coin flip, and the gap traces back to role: he's Minnesota's clear early-down and goal-line back in a game the model has Minnesota scoring roughly 2.6 team touchdowns. Green Bay grades as a Tough-tier defense, not an Elite one, and that distinction matters — this is a plus-money price on a back who should still see the volume a shootout game script rewards.
More Anytime TD Value to Consider
The Bengals-Buccaneers game carries the highest total on the board, and it shows up on both sides: Chase Brown and Ja'Marr Chase are both projected above 54%, with Bucky Irving (45.3%, flagged Due after three straight games without a touchdown) and Tee Higgins offering paths if Tampa Bay's defense can't slow either side down. Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Taylor round out the slate's top tier of pure workload plays, both projecting above 52% in games with above-average scoring environments. On the matchup-driven side, Saquon Barkley and Cam Skattebo both draw Worst-tier defenses in Washington and Dallas, and Malik Davis (+800, DraftKings) is the deepest long shot with real signal behind it — a 37.7% model probability against a market pricing him near 12%.
Model Notes
- Plus matchups (Worst-tier defenses by TDs allowed): Omarion Hampton (LAC vs. ARI), Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert (PHI vs. WAS), Cam Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG vs. DAL), Ashton Jeanty (LV vs. MIA), and Chuba Hubbard (CAR vs. CHI) all face defenses in the model's bottom tier for touchdowns allowed.
- Tough matchups the model still backs: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams (DET vs. NO), Javonte Williams and Malik Davis (DAL vs. NYG), Tucker Kraft (GB vs. MIN) and Trey McBride (ARI vs. LAC) are all projected above 30% probability against Elite-tier defenses — the model is backing role and volume over matchup difficulty in each case.
- New-team role flags: David Montgomery, Rico Dowdle, Keaton Mitchell and Chris Rodriguez Jr. all carry a "new_team" confidence tag rather than the model's full-history designation, reflecting offseason team changes that leave less-established usage data to project from. Treat their numbers as more volatile than a full-history projection.
- Due for regression: Justin Herbert (5 games without a rushing score), Kyle Monangai and Tyler Warren (4), Keaton Mitchell (4), and Bucky Irving, Quinshon Judkins, Chuba Hubbard and Jayden Daniels (3 each) have all gone the longest without hitting among players still carrying real week-to-week probability.
- Game totals used, highest to lowest: CIN/TB 50.5, DET/NO 49.5, NYG/DAL 48.5, BAL/IND and LAC/ARI 47.5, MIN/GB and CHI/CAR 46.5, PHI/WAS and BUF/HOU 44.5, ATL/PIT 42.5, LV/MIA and CLE/JAX 40.5, TEN/NYJ 39.5.
Use our Anytime TD Betting Tool
Place all of your anytime touchdown scorer bets today with one click using the tool below.
