It's the first full slate of the 2026 NFL season, and we have the best anytime TD scorer bets for Week 2 inside our new betting tool.
Fourteen games make up today's Sunday slate, and Break the Plane's model has already run every one of them through its full pipeline — a team-level touchdown projection for each game, blended with individual opportunity share (red zone touches, target share, alignment, matchup) to produce a touchdown probability for every rostered scorer in action. This isn't a roundup of what other outlets are saying; it's what the model itself is projecting, price-checked against the market where odds exist.
Washington-Dallas carries the highest total on the board at 51.5, with Colts-Chiefs (47.5) the only other game clearing 47. It shows at the top of the board: Derrick Henry sits atop the entire slate again at a 74.4% touchdown probability, with Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Taylor right behind him. Below is the full board (every skill-position player projected at 30% or higher with a real market price), the model's four best individual bets, and the situational signals — matchup tiers, role confidence, "due" regression candidates — that explain why the model lands where it does.
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Anytime TD Scorer Predictions Today (Week 2)
| Player | Matchup | Model Prob. | Best Price (Book) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | BAL vs NO | 74.4% | -220 (bet365) | Chalk |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL vs CAR | 65.0% | -185 (bet365) | Plus matchup |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND @ KC | 56.2% | -140 (Fanatics) | Tough matchup |
| Aaron Jones | MIN @ CHI | 55.1% | -135 (DraftKings) | Tough matchup |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC vs IND | 53.3% | -182 (Bally Bet) | Market ahead of model |
| Chase Brown | CIN @ HOU | 52.0% | +110 (Fanatics) | +EV (+3.3%) |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF vs MIA | 51.8% | -185 (bet365) | Market ahead of model |
| Bucky Irving | TB vs CLE | 49.8% | -122 (Bally Bet) | Tough matchup |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC vs LV | 49.3% | -135 (BetMGM) | Market ahead of model |
| Javonte Williams | DAL vs WAS | 47.3% | -165 (DraftKings) | Market ahead of model |
| De'Von Achane | MIA @ SF | 46.7% | +140 (bet365) | +EV (+2.8%) |
| George Kittle | SF vs MIA | 45.3% | +210 (Fanatics) | +EV (+10.3%) |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS @ DAL | 45.0% | +120 (Bally Bet) | Plus matchup |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA @ ARI | 44.5% | +145 (Fanatics) | Plus matchup |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI vs MIN | 43.9% | -120 (Fanatics) | Market ahead of model |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI @ TEN | 42.2% | -105 (Caesars) | Market ahead of model |
| Jadarian Price | SEA @ ARI | 40.5% | +155 (Fanatics) | Plus matchup |
| Breece Hall | NYJ vs GB | 40.1% | -105 (Fanatics) | Market ahead of model |
| David Montgomery | HOU vs CIN | 40.1% | -135 (BetMGM) | Market ahead of model |
| Tucker Kraft | GB @ NYJ | 39.9% | +195 (bet365) | +EV (+4.3%) |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN @ HOU | 39.3% | +130 (BetMGM) | Tough matchup |
| Mike Evans | SF vs MIA | 39.2% | +150 (BetMGM) | Plus matchup |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE vs PIT | 38.0% | +115 (Fanatics) | Market ahead of model |
| Rico Dowdle | PIT @ NE | 37.8% | +190 (DraftKings) | Due (3 games) |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI vs MIN | 37.2% | +210 (Fanatics) | Tough matchup |
| Chris Olave | NO @ BAL | 36.3% | +200 (Fanatics) | Tough matchup |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF vs MIA | 35.9% | +230 (BetMGM) | +EV (+2.6%) |
| Woody Marks | HOU vs CIN | 35.7% | +255 (bet365) | Due (3 games) |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV @ LAC | 35.4% | -105 (Fanatics) | Market ahead of model |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR @ ATL | 35.3% | -109 (Bally Bet) | Market ahead of model |
| RJ Harvey | DEN vs JAX | 35.3% | +275 (Bally Bet) | +EV (+7.1%) |
| Christian Watson | GB @ NYJ | 35.2% | +190 (Fanatics) | Plus matchup |
| Rashee Rice | KC vs IND | 34.9% | +155 (BetMGM) | Plus matchup |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI @ TEN | 34.7% | +245 (Bally Bet) | +EV (+2.5%) |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT @ NE | 34.7% | +170 (bet365) | Tough matchup |
| Mack Hollins | NE vs PIT | 33.2% | +300 (Fanatics) | Due (10 games) |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL vs WAS | 33.0% | +120 (Fanatics) | Market ahead of model |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE vs PIT | 32.9% | +310 (Fanatics) | +EV (+5.2%) |
| Parker Washington | JAX @ DEN | 32.8% | +230 (Fanatics) | Chalk |
| Trey McBride | ARI vs SEA | 32.5% | +245 (bet365) | Tough matchup |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN vs JAX | 32.4% | +240 (BetMGM) | Chalk |
| Emmett Johnson | KC vs IND | 32.2% | +480 (BetRivers) | +EV (+13.3%) |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA @ ARI | 32.1% | +1100 (DraftKings) | Due (6 games) |
| Colston Loveland | CHI vs MIN | 31.8% | +190 (Fanatics) | Tough matchup |
| Tee Higgins | CIN @ HOU | 31.3% | +190 (bet365) | Tough matchup |
| Tony Pollard | TEN vs PHI | 31.1% | +225 (Fanatics) | Due (3 games) |
| Demond Claiborne | MIN @ CHI | 30.6% | +1000 (Fanatics) | +EV (+20.1%) |
| DK Metcalf | PIT @ NE | 30.2% | +300 (DraftKings) | +EV (+3.6%) |
Prices shown are the best price Break the Plane found across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Bally Bet, BetRivers, bet365, Fanatics and Caesars as of this writing and will move before kickoff — always confirm your own book's live line before betting. "+EV" marks players where the model's probability sits meaningfully above what the market is pricing; "Chalk" marks the model agreeing with a short-priced favorite with no real gap either way; "Market ahead of model" flags the opposite — the market is pricing the player higher than the model does, worth knowing before laying that price; "Plus/Tough matchup" reflects the opposing defense's touchdown-rate tier; "Due" reflects games since that player's last anytime touchdown.
Best Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets Today
Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown: -220 (bet365)
Henry grades out as the highest-probability scorer on the entire Sunday slate for the second straight week, and the model isn't fighting the market here — the two numbers sit within a point and a half of each other. He's carrying a 71.9% backfield rushing share and a 44.7% red-zone share in a home game with a 46.5 total, the exact combination that produces the floor this price demands. It's not a value play, but it's the single most reliable projection on the board.
George Kittle Anytime Touchdown: +210 (Fanatics)
The clearest gap between model and market on the slate at a real, playable probability. Kittle projects at 45.3% while the market consensus sits at just 35.1% — a 10.3-point edge, even before shopping to Fanatics' league-best +210 price. Miami grades as the single worst defense in the league by touchdowns allowed (4.0/game, trailing), and it isn't just a general matchup label: Kittle's own highest-volume target zone (short-right, 47 targets over the trailing sample) is a zone where Miami allows a shade more production than league average on the same target profile. San Francisco projects to score 3.2 team touchdowns in a game tied for the third-highest total on the board — Kittle's 17.7% target share and 13.9% red-zone role put him in position to be a real beneficiary if that plays out. Three of his own teammates (McCaffrey, Evans, Deebo Samuel) show up in the same plus-matchup group, so the model isn't picking Kittle in isolation — it's backing the whole 49ers offense against this defense.
Chase Brown Anytime Touchdown: +110 (Fanatics)
A cleaner role-and-volume case than a pure matchup one. Brown projects at 52.0% against a market implying 48.8% — a real, if modest, edge — on the back of a 56.8% rushing share and a 47.1% red-zone share, both firmly bellcow-level numbers. Houston isn't a plus matchup by the model's own defensive tiers (Tough, not Worst), so this price is closer to fair value on role alone than it is a market inefficiency, and it's backed by real volume rather than name recognition.
Best Anytime Touchdown Scorer Longshot Today
Emanuel Wilson Anytime Touchdown: +1100 (DraftKings)
The long shot with the most model support on the board, and by a wide margin. Wilson projects at 32.1% — nearly a one-in-three shot — against a market number implying just 11.5%, the largest single edge on the entire slate. He's gone six games without an anytime touchdown, Arizona grades as a Worst-tier defense by touchdowns allowed, and this is a division game where the script tends to stay competitive into the fourth quarter — real signal behind a price this long. Treat it as exactly what it is: a long shot with a genuine, model-backed case, not a lock.
Best Value Anytime TD Picks
Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Taylor round out the model's top tier below Henry, both projecting above 55% in above-average scoring environments — Robinson against Carolina's Worst-tier defense, Taylor in the Colts-Chiefs game that carries the second-highest total on the board (47.5). Two big favorites are worth a second look before betting the market price as-is: Kenneth Walker III (53.3% model vs. a market implying 67.6%) and Christian McCaffrey (51.8% model vs. a market implying 71.0%) are both real, high-probability plays, but the model is notably lighter on each than the market is — -182 and -185 are asking you to pay for more certainty than the model itself sees. Further down the board, Emmett Johnson (+480, BetRivers, 32.2%) is a second Chiefs long shot with real model support behind Walker and Rashee Rice. On the rookie side, Demond Claiborne (+1000, Fanatics, 30.6%) steps into a real early-down role for Minnesota with Jordan Mason on IR (thumb) and a rush-share bump of nearly 9 points — the model's largest role-confidence flag on the board this week, worth knowing it carries more week-to-week volatility than a full-history projection.
Model Notes
- Plus matchups cluster by game more than by player this week. Four games account for almost the entire Worst-tier-defense group: San Francisco-Miami (McCaffrey, Kittle, Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel, all against Miami's Worst-tier defense), Kansas City-Indianapolis (Kenneth Walker III, Rashee Rice and Emmett Johnson against a Worst-tier Colts defense), Seattle-Arizona (Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jadarian Price and Emanuel Wilson against a Worst-tier Cardinals defense), and Green Bay-Jets, where both sides get a plus matchup — Tucker Kraft and Christian Watson for Green Bay, Breece Hall for the Jets.
- Two games are shaping up as defensive slugfests on both sides. Bears-Vikings has Aaron Jones facing a Tough-tier Chicago defense while D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai and rookie TE Colston Loveland all draw an Elite-tier Minnesota defense right back. Raiders-Chargers is tighter still — Omarion Hampton draws an Elite-tier Las Vegas defense and Ashton Jeanty draws an Elite-tier Chargers defense in return, which lines up with that game carrying one of the lowest totals on the board (42.5).
- Two games split sharply by side. Falcons-Panthers has Bijan Robinson against one of the league's most exploitable defenses while Chuba Hubbard runs into one of its best; Cardinals-Seahawks is the same story in reverse, with three different Seahawks (Smith-Njigba, Jadarian Price, Emanuel Wilson) getting a plus matchup against Arizona while Trey McBride's upside is capped by an Elite-tier Seattle defense.
- New-team/role flags: Demond Claiborne (MIN) is the only non-full-history confidence flag on today's board — a rookie stepping into a real role bump for the injured Jordan Mason. Treat his number as more volatile than a full-history projection.
- Due for regression: Mack Hollins (10 games without an anytime touchdown), Emanuel Wilson (6), and Rico Dowdle, Woody Marks and Tony Pollard (3 each) have gone the longest without hitting among players still carrying real week-to-week probability.
- Passing Matchup Profile: new this week — every pass-catcher's card now shows his highest-volume target zone (depth and direction, never a route type) next to what this week's opponent allows there versus the league. It's a second, more granular confirmation for Kittle's case above; it's also a reminder that a "Worst-tier defense" label doesn't mean bad in every specific zone — Bijan Robinson's own best zone (behind the line, left) runs into a Carolina defense that's actually tougher than league average there, even though Carolina's overall defense grades near the bottom of the league.
- Game totals used, highest to lowest: WAS/DAL 51.5, IND/KC 47.5, BAL/NO, HOU/CIN and SF/MIA 46.5, CHI/MIN 45.5, ATL/CAR and ARI/SEA 44.5, NE/PIT and DEN/JAX 43.5, TB/CLE, LAC/LV, TEN/PHI and NYJ/GB 42.5.
Probabilities, prices and matchup tiers reflect Break the Plane's model output as of this writing and are subject to change as lines move and inactives are announced — always confirm the live line and injury report before betting.
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