Best Ball ADP Analysis: Bhayshul Tuten Charging Toward Top 50 on Underdog
Jerry Donabedian analyzes ADP movement during training camp, including two hype trains leaving the station in Jacksonville and injury fallout in San Francisco.
With the preseason kicking off, it's time to see how NFL best ball ADPs have changed since we last did this exercise in mid-July, shortly before the start of training camp.
There have only been two two severe injuries to fantasy-relevant players so far — 49ers WR Ricky Pearsall (PCL) and Panthers WR Chris Brazzell (LCL) — but we still have plenty of best ball ADP movement to discuss. Positive quotes from coaches and favorable reports from beat writers often move the needle more than they should.
In other cases, drafters are wisely showing some caution with players (mostly WRs) who have been missing camp practices due to soft-tissue injuries. We'll touch on all of that and more below, comparing Underdog ADPs from August 6 against those from July 17.
All of the tables below are sorted by the percentage difference of ADP change, rather than by the raw number of spots, because the latter approach leads to a list dominated by late-round picks. After all, a three-spot move in the early rounds is far more meaningful than a leap of 10 spots in Round 16. (All data comes from Underdog, where half-PPR scoring reigns.)
Nabers hadn't progressed to team drills or been cleared for contact as of Aug. 6, but he at least has some chance to be ready for Week 1, and now appears better than 50/50 to avoid the PUP list.
Things look less promising for Nabers from a scheme standpoint under new offensive coordinator Matt Nagy.
That might be the other way around, however, if not for Stribling missing time with a hamstring injury.
Regardless of thoughts on the substation, there's rightfully extra concern about injuries in San Francisco, given the horrible track record of recent years.
Ricky Pearsall, meanwhile, faces a lengthy rehab process without much precedent among high-level professional athletes. It's reportedly rare for isolated PCL injuries to require surgery, and rehab timelines are long when it does happen.
RB Jonathon Brooks (91.6, +10.3) is now safely in the eighth round, continuing to gain ground on Chuba Hubbard (83.4, -7.1).
Brooks may go ahead of Hubbard by late August if he stays healthy.
RB Bhayshul Tuten (50.6, +5.1) has moved up by nearly a half-round amidst a steady drumbeat of camp hype.
Chris Rodriguez's absence from early practices probably helped, but Rodriguez is now mixing into team drills and seemingly avoiding setbacks, putting him well on his way to a Week 1 appearance.
The Jags are also a strong candidate to add a veteran RB at some point before Week 1.
Can you tell that I'm not a fan of Tuten at the 4/5 turn? He makes a lot more sense at the lower price in managed leagues, where his low floor is less harmful because we can eventually replace him via trade/waivers if he's a complete bust.
WR Jaylen Waddle (39.6, +3.3) has risen due to hype from both the fantasy community and the Denver beat, but now he's dealing with an unspecified lower body injury.
WR Kayshon Boutte (195.6, +16.7) is having a strong camp and remains a candidate to be traded.
The Patriots have a deep WR group, with Boutte, DeMario Douglas and Mack Hollins offering three very different profiles behind A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. It wouldn't be a bad idea to keep all five, especially if the plan is to run a lot of 11 personnel.
The Patriots signed Reggie Gilliam and TE Julian Hill to improve their blocking in 12/21/22/13 personnel. Gave both significant guarantees.
But Hill suffered a season-ending injury this spring.
He should be going at least a round later, even after disc surgery last fall. LaPorta got full clearance for the start of camp, and there's been no repot of a setback so far.
WR Cyrus Allen (202.4, +13.6) has become a popular endgame pick over the past week, due to reports of semi-regular first-team reps and good chemistry with Patrick Mahomes (at training camp).
However, Allen's momentum has been slowed by a shin injury. He's expected back soon, but the Chiefs may have Rashee Rice (knee) and Xavier Worthy (shoulder) available by then, plus they've given Tyquan Thornton and Jalen Royals plenty of chances with the starters (it's apparently not going so well for Royals).
Germie Bernard got drafted too high so Cyrus Allen is this year's Puka https://t.co/ACS0sTS6Jd
RB Travis Etienne (40.4, -6.7) has dropped by more than a half-round since Alvin Kamara renegotiated his contract with the Saints in mid-July.
Kamara's new deal has a $6 million base salary, with $3.5 million guaranteed. The Saints theoretically could release him if he looks washed up this summer, but it's unlikely, given the history Kamara has with the team.
Reports out of Saints camp have Kamara getting most of the third-down reps while Etienne takes most of the early down snaps (no surprise here).
RB Jeremiyah Love (26.8, -2.1) has dropped by two picks since the start of training camp, moving from the 2-3 turn toward the middle of Round 3.
Tyler Allgeier reportedly is getting a lot of first-team reps. But that's not really a surprise at this stage of camp.
James Conner (foot) hasn't joined team drills yet, and remains a trade candidate.
QB Fernando Mendoza (183.6, -10.9) has dropped by about a round since Klint Kubiak announced that Kirk Cousins would act as the starter for training camp.
Already a bargain, Mendoza now hits a new ADP low, even though Kubiak hasn't commented on expectations for the regular season.
Tom Brady and Co. obviously signed Cousins with the intention that he'd start some games, but Kubiak called it a competition this spring. Regardless of the Week 1 decision, Mendoza should be on the field well before the fantasy playoffs begin in Week 15.
WR DeVonta Smith (27.4, -1.0) is sliding a little due to a (supposedly minor) hamstring injury.
Also, Nabers is moving up the ranks and pushing others slightly back in the late-20s and 30s.
Smith has an excellent track record for durability, despite his lack of size. He's missed five games through five NFL seasons, after playing 13 or 14 games in each of his four seasons at Alabama. (It adds up to nine straight seasons with at least 13 appearances.)
WR Tee Higgins (34.0, -1.0) has dropped a spot, making way for Nabers' rise.
Higgins is one of those guys whose value theoretically increases with each passing day that doesn't end with the announcement of a Higgins or Burrow injury.
Higgins will have a strong weekly projection whenever he and Burrow are healthy, and especially in Week 1 for a home game against Tampa Bay. There's still elevated injury risk in-season between him and Burrow, but all looks good at the moment.
WR Mike Evans (47.7, -1.8) is dealing with a quad injury and dropping to the 4/5 turn. Another substation victim, or just an old guy?
Note: New Commanders WR Stefon Diggs isn't mentioned above because the article was already in progress when his signing was announced. Diggs had an Underdog ADP of 132.1 at the time, and he now figures to move up at least a round with the confirmation of joining a WR-needy team with a solid QB.
I'd imagine Diggs gets up to Doubs/Concepcion/Higgins territory in the late 10th. Saw someone get him a round past his old ADP this morning and was salty aboot it https://t.co/FwpUbulVhv
The Diggs signing could also provide a slight ADP boost for WRs like Josh Downs and Jalen Nailor whose teams were rumored to have interest in Diggs. It's not clear if the Colts or Raiders actually did have interest, and the Colts remain a strong candidate to sign Keenan Allen, who overlapped with Shane Steichen for seven years in San Diego / Los Angeles.
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Jerry is a Writer, Editor and Lead Projections Analyst at RotoWire, where he's been writing NFL articles and player notes for more than a decade. After four years as a profitable, multi-sport DFS player, Jerry shifted his focus toward traveling and NFL fantasy writing (with an occasional gambling side hustle along the way). Nowadays, Jerry devotes 90 percent of his bankroll to best ball and 90 percent of his soul to his dynasty teams. You might also know him as the slowest slow drafter on Drafters (StringerHell) and DraftKings (jd0505).
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WR Malik Nabers has moved +10.4 spots (to ADP 27.4) after looking good in individual drills during the first week of training camp.
WR Deebo Samuel (ADP 139.4, +24.8) is going slightly ahead of De'Zhaun Stribling (145.3, +26.5).
RB Jonathon Brooks (91.6, +10.3) is now safely in the eighth round, continuing to gain ground on Chuba Hubbard (83.4, -7.1).
RB Bhayshul Tuten (50.6, +5.1) has moved up by nearly a half-round amidst a steady drumbeat of camp hype.
WR Jaylen Waddle (39.6, +3.3) has risen due to hype from both the fantasy community and the Denver beat, but now he's dealing with an unspecified lower body injury.
WR Kayshon Boutte (195.6, +16.7) is having a strong camp and remains a candidate to be traded.
TE Sam LaPorta (91.7, +4.2) is still one of the best picks on the board, moving up just 4.2 spots since the beginning of camp.
WR Cyrus Allen (202.4, +13.6) has become a popular endgame pick over the past week, due to reports of semi-regular first-team reps and good chemistry with Patrick Mahomes (at training camp).
RB Travis Etienne (40.4, -6.7) has dropped by more than a half-round since Alvin Kamara renegotiated his contract with the Saints in mid-July.
RB Jeremiyah Love (26.8, -2.1) has dropped by two picks since the start of training camp, moving from the 2-3 turn toward the middle of Round 3.
QB Fernando Mendoza (183.6, -10.9) has dropped by about a round since Klint Kubiak announced that Kirk Cousins would act as the starter for training camp.
WR DeVonta Smith (27.4, -1.0) is sliding a little due to a (supposedly minor) hamstring injury.
WR Tee Higgins (34.0, -1.0) has dropped a spot, making way for Nabers' rise. 
