The Packers and Falcons haven't gotten off to the start they were hoping for. But both teams have a chance to change that on Thursday Night Football. I went through tonight's slate of NFL player props and highlighted our model's three favorite bets. Here are three of the bets that received an A or A+ grade:
Best Falcons vs Packers NFL Player Props (Week 3)
Player | Bet | Price |
| MarShawn Lloyd | Rushing Yards: OVER 24.5 | -105 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | Receptions: OVER 1.5 | +180 |
| Christian Watson | Receptions UNDER 4.5 | +122 |
All of these prop bets received an A or A+ grade from RotoWire's prop betting tool. Our tool actually does the math for you — it figures out how confident we are based on our internal projections, checks what the sportsbook is truly charging once you strip out their built-in edge, and grades the bet based on how much better our numbers look than theirs.
In other words, we built a tool to help you win money. Sound good?
Marshawn Lloyd – Rushing Yards: OVER 24.5 (-105)
RotoWire has Marshawn Lloyd projected for 46.2 rushing yards tonight – 20 yards above this line. He's averaging 28.5 rushing yards per game on the season and should be in line for plenty of carries tonight, as the Packers are favored by 4.5. The only drawback is that Atlanta has been one of the stingiest run defenses in the league, giving up the fewest rushing yards in the NFL (126). I'm willing to bet that's just an early-season fluke. Lloyd should have no trouble getting to 25 yards.
MarShawn Lloyd – Receptions: OVER 1.5 (+180)
Let's double down on Lloyd. I'm not nearly as confident in this one, but at +180, I don't have to be. Lloyd has been targeted at least once in both games this season. He just beat this total last week, catching two passes against the Jets. It's a small sample size, but Atlanta's defense has been funneling passes toward RB so far, per RotoWire's NFL Defense vs. Position stats. The Falcons are tied for the second-most targets to running backs (14) so far this season. This one's a risk, but at nearly 2-to-1 odds, it's worth it.
Christian Watson – Receptions: UNDER 4.5 (+122)
Green Bay has been hunting explosives aggressively. Jordan Love has the league's fifth-highest average depth of target (9.6), meaning he has been chucking the ball downfield. In fact, the Packers own the league's lowest passing success rate at 35.4%. They're hitting triples and home runs, but they're not getting many singles. I'd expect Christian Watson to make a big play or two, but five receptions feels like a tall task, especially in a game GB is expected to lead.
All Falcons vs Packers NFL Player Props
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Season-Long NFL Player Props Record
For full transparency, we'll track this tool's performance every week. We'll track the outcome of every pick that was graded A or A+. Here's how we're doing as of Week 3.
- A Grades: 12-7 (63.2%)
- A+ Grades: 13-7 (65.0%)
- Combined: 25-14 (64.1%)
