Monday Night Football features a prove-it game between the Giants and Rams. Los Angeles is looking to prove it's not as bad as it looked in Week 1, while New York is hoping to prove it's every bit as good as it looked. If you're looking for an edge, I went through tonight's slate of NFL player props and found my model's three favorite bets of the night. Here are three of the bets that received an A+ grade:
Best Giants vs Rams NFL Player Props (Week 2)
Player | Bet | Price |
| Colby Parkinson | Receiving Yards: UNDER 28.5 | -110 |
| Colby Parkinson | Receptions: UNDER 2.5 | +140 |
| Theo Johnson | Receiving Yards: OVER 7.5 | -110 |
All four of these prop bets received an A or A+ grade from RotoWire's prop betting tool. Our tool actually does the math for you — it figures out how confident we are based on our internal projections, checks what the sportsbook is truly charging once you strip out their built-in edge, and grades the bet based on how much better our numbers look than theirs.
In other words, we built a tool to help you win money. Sound good?
Colby Parkinson – Receiving Yards: UNDER 28.5 (-110)
The Rams are one of the most tight-end-heavy teams in the league. Colby Parkinson played the most snaps of the Rams' four tight ends, but he had little to no involvement in the passing game. He commanded two targets, catching just one pass for six yards. RotoWire has Parkinson projected for 21.1 yards tonight, and I'm not confident he gets near even that figure tonight. This line feels too high, even if Puka Nacua's potential absence might open up a few targets.
Colby Parkinson – Receptions: UNDER 2.5 (+140)
Nothing against Colby Parkinson, but I'm doubling down here. Parkinson has been held under three receptions in three of his last six appearances, dating back to last year. This bet is a 50-50 proposition that's available at much better than 50-50 odds. Los Angeles is favored by a touchdown at most sportsbooks, so the Rams might not ask Matthew Stafford to throw a ton. Especially since I'm not convinced John Harbaugh has fixed NYG's run defense. New York had the league's worst run defense last year, by a significant margin, in terms of EPA per play. To me, this looks like a run-heavy script for a player in a four-headed tight end room. That's not a recipe for major volume.
Theo Johnson – Receiving Yards: OVER 7.5 (-110)
Theo Johnson suited up in 15 games last year. He recorded at least 10 receiving yards in 13 of those outings. Isaiah Likely is the reason this line is so low, as he has taken over as Jaxon Dart's primary target at TE. But the split might not be as dramatic as you think. Johnson only played two fewer snaps than Likely in Week 1. While his role is diminished compared to last year, teams are using multiple tight ends more than ever, and it's not like NYG's WRs are worldbeaters outside of Malik Nabers. New York was in control all the way through Week 1, but I expect the Giants to be in catch-up mode for most of tonight. That should lead to an uptick in opportunities for Johnson, who really only needs one target to beat this mark.
All Giants vs Rams NFL Player Props
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Season-Long NFL Player Props Record
For full transparency, we'll track this tool's performance every week. We'll track the outcome of every pick that was graded A or A+. Here's how we're doing as of Week 2.
- A Grades: 12-7 (63.2%)
- A+ Grades: 13-7 (65.0%)
- Combined: 25-14 (64.1%)
