DraftKings NFL Week 4: Top Picks & Lineup Strategy

Sunday's Week 4 slate on DraftKings includes 12 games and features Jacksonville-Cincinnati as the lone 50-point total. A matchup between two of the NFL's marquee quarterbacks, each at the top of their game, should draw plenty of interest. Zooming out, it's a slate packed with value as there are plenty of cheaper QBs, RBs and WRs who project well. There are more viable options than in recent weeks but fewer clear standouts and arguably no "locks" for cash games because of it. That makes things more fun but more challenging.

I've highlighted the top options for cash games and included some of my favorite stacks for GPPs. As usual, leverage and correlation are paramount to winning large-field tournaments so keep that in mind when building lineups. If you're only concerned with rostering the best projected players, cash games are better suited. Good luck. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Christian McCaffrey vs. DEN ($7,700)

McCaffrey projects as the top point-per-dollar option on the slate and for more raw points than both Derrick Henry ($8,400) and Kenneth Walker ($8,200) priced above him. While McCaffrey may not be at the peak of his powers anymore and even though he hasn't been touching the ball as often as in years past, he isn't priced at $9,000 either. The concerns have been priced in this week. I wouldn't go as far as to call him a lock because there are at least four options around $6K who project well enough to be considered in any format.

• WR Matthew Golden at TB ($5,400)

Golden is coming off five catches for 100 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons last week. He drew 12 targets for the second time in three weeks and now ranks top five in air yards. Those are great signs for him and a Packers team that hasn't had any success running the ball, especially given their matchup against the Buccaneers' pass-funnel defense. While I prefer Golden because he's cheapest and I'm a Packers fan, it should be noted that DJ Moore ($5,700) and Michael Wilson ($5,500) project similarly if you prefer. In the $6K range there are even more viable options, with Zay Flowers ($6,900), Garrett Wilson ($6,800), Parker Washington ($6,500), George Pickens ($6,300) and Tee Higgins ($6,100) all projecting as slightly better value per dollar than anyone cheaper. The position is deeper than usual this week so take your pick. 

Update: Jordan Addison ($5,300) now projects better than Golden and the rest of the $5K range after Justin Jefferson was ruled out.

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Other Cash Game Options

Quarterback: Trevor Lawrence at CIN ($5,900), Jacoby Brissett at NYG ($5,000), Tyson Bagent vs. NYJ ($4,800), Jalon Daniels vs. GB ($4,400)

Running Back: Christian McCaffrey vs. DEN ($7,700), Chase Brown vs. JAX ($6,100), Cam Skattebo vs. ARI ($6,100), Aaron Jones vs. MIA ($6,000), Jeremiyah Love at NYG ($5,800)

Wide Receiver: Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. LAC ($9,100), Ja'Marr Chase vs. JAX ($8,100), Puka Nacua at PHI ($7,500), Garrett Wilson at CHI ($6,800), Parker Washington at CIN ($6,500), Tee Higgins vs. JAX ($6,100), Matthew Golden at TB ($5,400), WR Jordan Addison vs. MIA ($5,300)

Tight End: Brock Bowers vs. KC ($6,900), Trey McBride at NYG ($6,500), George Kittle vs. DEN ($5,100), Kenyon Sadiq at CHI ($4,000), T.J. Hockenson vs. MIA ($3,300), Brenton Strange at CIN ($3,200)

Defense/Special Teams: Minnesota Vikings vs. MIA ($4,000), Green Bay Packers at TB ($3,200), Chicago Bears vs. NYJ ($3,000), Los Angeles Rams at PHI ($2,600), Arizona Cardinals at NYG ($2,500)

Passing Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Jacksonville Jaguars (24.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (27)

Jaguars

Featuring two of the league's hottest quarterbacks, the only matchup on the slate with a total above 50 has clear shootout potential. Trevor Lawrence ($5,900) ranks as the top value at quarterback and probably ends up the most popular. After another three-touchdown game against New England last week, he's accounted for 31 TDs over his last 10 as he's turned a corner under the tutelage of Liam Cohen. An already questionable Cincinnati secondary will be missing both their slot corners. Parker Washington ($6,500) and Jakobi Meyers ($5,000) will be licking their chops. Even Brenton Strange ($3,200) looks better than usual given how bad the Bengals have been at stopping tight ends. Washington has garnered heaps of praise and will be rightfully popular. Meyers will be somewhat overlooked despite catching seven of eight targets and a touchdown last week. Brian Thomas remains out of consideration after catching just one pass and losing snaps. 

Bengals

DraftKings continues to lower the salary of Chase Brown ($6,100) and now he projects as the second-best value at RB behind McCaffrey. Nothing about his matchup stands out, but he's the bell cow for an explosive offense in a high-total matchup, making him underpriced nonetheless. He'll be among the chalk this week. Rostering Joe Burrow ($6,800) will be much less popular for no other reason than he's relatively expensive. Both Ja'Marr Chase ($8,100) and Tee Higgins ($6,100) project well, and pairing either with Burrow offers slate-breaking upside. They're also great options to run it back with in Lawrence stacks. Mike Gesicki ($3,300) can be considered for double or triple stacks in larger-field GPPs.

• Favorite Jags Stack: QB Lawrence + WR Chase/WR Higgins + WR Washington +/- TE Strange 
• Favorite Jags Stack 2: QB Lawrence + WR Chase/WR Higgins + WR Meyers +/- TE Strange
• Favorite Bengals Stack: QB Burrow + WR Chase/WR Higgins + WR Washington or TE Strange

Dallas Cowboys (25) at Houston Texans (22.5)

Cowboys

Dallas games usually appeal for passing stacks because they have elite WRs and struggle to run the ball while their defense is porous but better at stopping the run than the pass. That's especially true in this spot against Houston, which excels stopping the run but has been beaten through the air. Despite a great start to the season, CeeDee Lamb ($7,800) will go overlooked this week due to Chase and Nacua projecting better above and below him. George Pickens ($6,300) will be slightly more popular given the $1,500 discount. Pairing either with Dak Prescott ($6,400) and a Texan would offer all the leverage needed to take down a GPP. 

Texans

Fortunately for Houston, star WR Nico Collins ($7,200) is back after a two-week absence. The offense has sorely missed him, already without No. 2 and 3 WRs Jayden Higgins and Tank Dell. David Montgomery ($5,700) is averaging fewer than three yards per carry and appears set to lose touches to Woody Marks ($4,700). Dalton Schultz ($4,800) is overpriced with Collins back healthy. C.J. Stroud ($5,700) will have his work cut out for him, but it's a favorable matchup and with Collins back, they should be able to keep pace. Only Miami has allowed more EPA per pass play than Dallas. 

• Favorite Cowboys Stack: QB Prescott + WR Pickens or WR Lamb + WR Collins
• Favorite Texans Stack: QB Stroud + WR Collins + WR Pickens or WR Lamb

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Josh Allen + WR DJ Moore or TE Dalton Kincaid

QB Brock Purdy +/- RB Christian McCaffrey + TE George Kittle

QB Patrick Mahomes + WR Rashee Rice + TE Brock Bowers

QB Jordan Love + RB Bucky Irving + WR Matthew Golden or WR Christian Watson

QB Bo Nix + RB Christian McCaffrey + WR Jaylen Waddle

QB Kyler Murray + WR Jordan Addison and/or TE T.J. Hockenson

QB Jacoby Brissett + RB Cam Skattebo + WR Michael Wilson or TE Trey McBride

QB Tyson Bagent + WR Luther Burden or TE Colston Loveland +/- WR Garrett Wilson

QB Jalon Daniels + WR Matthew Golden/WR Christian Watson +/- WR Ted Hurst or TE Cade Otton

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. LAC ($9,100)

First a note about Puka Nacua ($7,500), who's set to return after missing two games with a hip injury: he projects among the best point-per-dollar value at WR because of the depressed salary and will be relatively popular in all formats. If I spend up for a WR in cash games, it's likely for him. I prefer Smith-Njigba in tournaments because he's been incredible and will be considerably less popular. Averaging a whopping 38 DraftKings points through three games, it's not often you can roster a player with his upside for leverage but that's the case after another salary hike. Without Walker and Zach Charbonnet, the Seahawks have become a pass-first offense and they have a favorable home matchup against the winless Chargers. 

• TE Brock Bowers vs. KC ($6,900)

It's easier to spend up at TE than usual given the value at QB and RB. After missing the first two games recovering from a meniscus trim, Bowers looked like he never missed a beat, torching the Saints for 10 catches, 116 yards and a touchdown. His route tree was especially impressive as he lined up all over the field and ran every type of pattern. I'd expect him to draw double-digit targets again in a matchup against the Chiefs where the Raiders will likely be playing from behind. 

Honorable Mention: WR Ja'Marr Chase ($8,100)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Kenneth Walker at LV ($8,200)

This is a tough one because I'm a big fan of Walker and have nothing against him this week, but we have to make big fades every slate. I mentioned at the top that McCaffrey projects better for $500 less. There are also four or five others in good spots for at least $2,000 less. Not to mention Derrick Henry ($8,400) in a smash spot against his former team for the first time. It's a week where 20 points isn't going to be enough for $8,000 and I'd rather use some of that salary at other positions. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• RB Jeremiyah Love at NYG ($5,800)

It took a few weeks but Arizona finally let the third overall pick loose against San Francisco last week, giving him 26 touches that resulted in 109 yards and a touchdown. If he sees that type of volume again Sunday, with the Cardinals in a favorable spot against Jameis Winston and the Giants, he should go for 20+ DraftKings points again. If you don't trust it yet, there are plenty of other options. Cam Skattebo ($6,100) on the other side projects even better, coming off 23 touches for 100 yards last week. As do Chase Brown ($6,100), who I've already mentioned, and Aaron Jones ($6,000), who gets the most favorable matchup at home against Miami. I'm expecting two or three of these four in most cash-game lineups. Bucky Irving ($6,000), who projects only slightly worse but has a great matchup, can be rostered for leverage in GPPs. 

The Bargain Bin

Quarterback: Jacoby Brissett at NYG ($5,000), Tyson Bagent vs. NYJ ($4,800), Jalon Daniels vs. GB ($4,400)

Running Back: Jeremiyah Love at NYG ($5,800), Braelon Allen at CHI ($5,200), Emanuel Wilson vs. LAC ($4,700)

Wide Receiver: Malik Washington at MIN ($4,400), Dontayvion Wicks vs. LAR ($4,300), Tre' Harris at SEA ($4,100), Chris Bell at MIN ($3,700)

Tight End: T.J. Hockenson vs. MIA ($3,300), Brenton Strange at CIN ($3,200), Tyler Higbee at PHI ($3,100), AJ Barner vs. LAC ($3,000)

Injuries to Monitor

• New York Jets at CHI

Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor have been ruled out. Braelon Allen ($5,200) will see the lion's share at RB while Garrett Wilson ($6,800) and Kenyon Sadiq ($4,000) will be heavily involved in the passing game, similar to last week. 

Weather

• Possible rain/storms in Baltimore and Philadelphia. Check the forecast closer to kickoff if you're planning to roster Puka Nacua, Zay Flowers, Dontayvion Wicks, etc.