As I wrote in my first guillotine league strategy article of the season last week, I'm typically going to wait to draft a quarterback this year. It's a practice that has worked well for me, so why change now? Last year, I won two of my three guillotine-style leagues. I waited until the eighth round to draft my quarterback in each of those championship-winning leagues, grabbing Drake Maye in one league and C.J. Stroud in another.
Ideally, I'll be able to add a Josh Allen or Joe Burrow type to my team halfway through the season, but in the meantime, I expect to survive with the steady hand of the targets listed below, while avoiding some potential landmines.
For average draft position, I looked at NFFC Eliminator Championship data, where sharp fantasy players are investing real money.
QBs To Target in Guillotine Leagues
Dak Prescott, Cowboys
NFFC Eliminator ADP: QB6 (pick 75)
If I decide to invest in one of the top-10 quarterbacks (based on average draft position), it's probably going to be Dak Prescott. Dallas has the fourth easiest schedule for fantasy quarterbacks through the first three weeks, according to RotoWire's Strength of Schedule tool, which adjusts for quality of opponent.
With a healthy CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, Prescott has
As I wrote in my first guillotine league strategy article of the season last week, I'm typically going to wait to draft a quarterback this year. It's a practice that has worked well for me, so why change now? Last year, I won two of my three guillotine-style leagues. I waited until the eighth round to draft my quarterback in each of those championship-winning leagues, grabbing Drake Maye in one league and C.J. Stroud in another.
Ideally, I'll be able to add a Josh Allen or Joe Burrow type to my team halfway through the season, but in the meantime, I expect to survive with the steady hand of the targets listed below, while avoiding some potential landmines.
For average draft position, I looked at NFFC Eliminator Championship data, where sharp fantasy players are investing real money.
QBs To Target in Guillotine Leagues
Dak Prescott, Cowboys
NFFC Eliminator ADP: QB6 (pick 75)
If I decide to invest in one of the top-10 quarterbacks (based on average draft position), it's probably going to be Dak Prescott. Dallas has the fourth easiest schedule for fantasy quarterbacks through the first three weeks, according to RotoWire's Strength of Schedule tool, which adjusts for quality of opponent.
With a healthy CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, Prescott has players who NFFC high-stakes competitors are drafting as top-10 wide receivers. Add a top-12 tight end in Jake Ferguson and top-16 running back Javonte Williams, and the sharpest fantasy managers recognize Prescott is at the helm of one of the most talented offenses in the league.
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Jared Goff, Lions
NFFC Eliminator ADP: QB14 (pick 114)
Boring but effective, Goff is the kind of quarterback who I will gladly pick in any league format. The knock on him is that he doesn't contribute any rushing stats, and he doesn't perform as well in poor weather.
When an average season gives me more than 4,500 passing yards and 32 touchdowns, I can accept the fact that I may not get 10 rushing yards in any single game all season. The home/away schedule sets up nicely for the guillotine league format, as the Lions don't have to visit Green Bay or Chicago until the end of the season when we'll easily be able to find a good replacement to avoid the inclement weather games.
One thing to beware of is the Lions have a Week 6 bye. I usually downgrade players with early bye weeks, but it's easy enough to find a solid fill-in at the position. I just would be hesitant to pair him with his talented teammates prior to the bye week.
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Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers
NFFC Eliminator ADP: QB18 (pick 135)
In 2024, I identified Baker Mayfield as my favorite late-round guillotine league quarterback target, and he rewarded me with 4,500 passing yards and 41 TDs, along with 378 rush yards and three rushing TDs.
He followed that up by starting out the first six weeks of 2025 looking like an MVP candidate, but then he got banged up and was inconsistent while playing through injuries. I'll buy the dip. His mobility is underrated, and I love his wide receiver room despite the loss of Mike Evans in free agency. He'll face the challenge of teaming up with his fourth offensive coordinator in four seasons in Tampa Bay, but coaching changes haven't slowed him before. Playing for a new contract, I like Mayfield to return to the high-end statistical production we saw early last season.
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QBs To Avoid in Guillotine Leagues
Josh Allen, Bills
NFFC Eliminator ADP: QB1 (pick 19)
I'm not going to make an argument against Josh Allen as QB1. I'm just going to articulate why I can't justify selecting him as highly as he is being drafted.
It all comes down to the matchup. Facing the Texans in Houston in Week 1 might be the worst-case scenario for guillotine league managers. In a matchup with Houston last season, Allen finished with 253 passing yards and a pair of interceptions. He rushed for just 20 yards and accounted for zero touchdowns. A repeat of that stat line from a first- or second-round quarterback in Week 1 is the kind of performance that gets teams eliminated.
Check out the industry-leading fantasy football live draft assistant to get custom rankings for your league and follow along with a live draft on most major platforms.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
NFFC Eliminator ADP: QB13 (pick 109)
Patrick Mahomes (knee) has been cleared to participate fully in training camp, but I think it's far too risky to depend on him as my starting quarterback Week 1, especially against a good Denver team that kept him in the pocket and limited him to one touchdown and one interception in Week 11 last season. With the addition of Kenneth Walker this offseason, I could see Kansas City leaning more on the run game while Mahomes eases back into the game.
Add the fact that the Chiefs have the earliest bye week this season (Week 5), and I would be obligated to draft another good quarterback who I could comfortably consider starting the first five weeks. I would much rather fill that roster spot with a reliable running back or wide receiver.
Check out our fantasy football ADP report for a comprehensive tool with live-updated ADP data for multiple league formats and sites.
Caleb Williams, Bears
NFFC Eliminator ADP: QB10 (pick 90)
I love Caleb Williams's tools, the talent around him and the offensive scheme, but losing DJ Moore has to count for something. I also don't like the matchups to start the season, which score as the toughest fantasy QB matchups cumulatively for Weeks 1-3.
It is also notable that through the first nine weeks Williams ran for 251 yards and three rushing touchdowns, while the next nine (including a playoff game) he only added 157 more yards and zero scores. When the running backs are making plays, coach Ben Johnson has shown that he will lean on the run game, as Chicago ranked in the bottom third of the league in pass play percentage.
